The largest Chinese military exercises in almost three decades were held off the coast of Taiwan yesterday. The constant military exercises not only wear out the Taiwanese army, they also blur the line between war and peace. After all, an exercise could easily escalate into a full-scale attack.
The Taiwanese government is particularly concerned about the fact that many Chinese Coast Guard vessels have recently been taking part in the exercises. After all, unlike the Navy, the Coast Guard is responsible for controlling the waters and shipping. The Taiwanese side believes that the People’s Liberation Army is simulating certain forms of blockade and quarantine. Andreas Landwehr has summarized for you what this would mean for the island state and the world.
Our second piece deals with a much more positive topic. The “Inspiration China” exhibition at Hamburg’s Museum für Kunst und Gewerbe displays a unique collection of Chinese craftsmanship. Its perfection once inspired Europe’s artisans. Curator Wibke Schrape spoke with Table.Briefings about porcelain, looted art and why the camel motif was so popular in the Tang dynasty.
Taiwan is alarmed. China plans to inspect merchant ships in the waters around the democratic island republic using its own patrols. Taipei describes the latest military exercises as China’s largest maritime deployment since 1996. Once again, numerous Chinese Coast Guard vessels are participating – as they did for the first time in the drills in May and October.
Almost 90 Navy and Coast Guard ships are moving around Taiwan – from southern Japan to the South China Sea. The large-scale operation is seen as a military response to the visit by Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te to Hawaii and the Pacific US territory of Guam last week. Beijing had also announced “vigorous countermeasures” to the latest US arms deliveries to Taiwan.
China is up to “something more serious,” warns a government official close to Lai. “If you look at China’s exercises, you can see that they practice on a completely different scale than in previous years.” The deployment of the Coast Guard is particularly “worrying,” says the source, who fears the threat could become a “new normal.” After all, unlike the Navy, the Coast Guard is responsible for controlling waters and shipping.
Liu Dejun, spokesperson for the Chinese Coast Guard, revealed in Beijing what strategy is being pursued after the “Joint Sword” maneuvers in October: The ships had “conducted law enforcement patrols in the waters surrounding Taiwan island.” The Coast Guard posted a photo with a red love heart symbolizing the encirclement of the island with “patrols in the shape of love.”
Three threat scenarios are being assessed at the presidential palace in Taipei: An invasion, a naval blockade and a so-called “quarantine” for merchant ships, which has government officials acutely worried: The Coast Guard, which is subordinate to the Chinese military, could temporarily detain merchant ships on their way to Taiwan for inspections. “They practice certain forms of blockades and quarantine,” they say.
During such inspections, cargo ships could be inspected for supposedly sensitive goods such as US weapons – and would have to request permission from China’s Coast Guard to continue their journey, confirming China’s claim to sovereignty. Such “quarantine” measures would not only have a massive impact on the exporting nation’s trade, but could also drive up insurance premiums for maritime shipping, as economic experts warn. Almost half of the global container fleet passes through the Taiwan Strait.
A complete naval blockade of the island with its 23 million inhabitants would be an “act of war” under international law from Taiwan’s point of view. However, a “quarantine” regime would be more of an “in-between” in a “gray zone.” Legally, China would invoke its “one-China principle,” according to which Taiwan belongs to the People’s Republic and Beijing exercises its sovereignty over its waters.
Many countries are not sufficiently prepared for such “legal warfare” by Beijing, warns Taipei. The majority, including Germany and the US, adhere to a “one-China policy” under Chinese pressure. According to this policy, Beijing is recognized as the legitimate government of China – but Taiwan is not recognized as part of the People’s Republic, which Beijing’s “one-China principle” insists on. The nuanced distinction between “policy” and “principle” is confusing but crucial. Meanwhile, most countries do not maintain official diplomatic relations with Taipei, which fits with Beijing’s sovereignty claim. Taiwan does, however, maintain numerous unofficial diplomatic missions around the world.
A “quarantine” regime would put the international community’s position to the test. The costs for Beijing – militarily or economically through sanctions – would be significantly lower than the risky gamble of an amphibious landing and invasion of the island. “Quarantine” measures could also be ramped up and down at will. They could generate massive political pressure to force the government in Taipei to the negotiating table and talk about “unification.”
An inspection regime would further increase the risk of escalation through unintended incidents. Experts agree that a war over Taiwan would be devastating: A massive international crisis that would have a much bigger global impact than the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
Even a naval blockade could cause a massive global economic collapse – simply by disrupting the semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan produces 92 percent of the most advanced logic chips and one-third of the less sophisticated but no less important semiconductors. The Rhodium Group estimates that these industries alone would lose 1.6 trillion US dollars every year in the event of a blockade. The social and economic impact of a chip shortage on this scale would “likely be catastrophic,” writes the think tank.
The stakes are high for Germany, Europe, the US and much of the world. In his first term as US President from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump tended to improve relations with Taiwan, with the Presidential Office in Taipei now talking about “significant progress in bilateral relations.”
However, these tensions require a balancing act and finesse for the complexity of the conflict, something for which the unpredictable Trump is not necessarily known. Unlike outgoing US President Joe Biden, who focused on alliances and cooperation with partners in the region against China, Trump prefers to forge bilateral relationships. Trump will likely increase the pressure on Taiwan to invest more in its defense.
Concerns that Trump could cut a “deal” with Beijing over Taiwan’s future are also dismissed by experts in Taipei, who point out that the US defense industry depends on semiconductors from Taiwan – for example for US fighter jets and other advanced weapons systems. “Where should the chips come from then?” asks a top executive from the semiconductor sector, who wishes to remain anonymous. “It wouldn’t be an easy decision for Trump to sell Taiwan out to China.”
It was perfection that once fascinated collectors, artists, museums and business people in Europe so much about Chinese craftsmanship. This inspired local art connoisseurs. For example, they ordered a traditional Bavarian beer stein from the artisans – so-called export porcelain. Other works, however, might surprise visitors. For example, various motifs of camels, which were much more common in China than often assumed in Europe due to the Silk Road.
Ms. Schrape, the title of the exhibition is “Inspiration China.” Who inspires whom?
Ideally, we want to inspire visitors to the “Museum für Kunst und Gewerbe Hamburg”. However, the title refers to the character of the collection. It was created in 1873 for the Vienna World Exhibition and serves as a model for local artisans. At that time, people began to collect East Asian objects specifically as a source of inspiration and role models. It was also a reaction to industrialization, where there was a feeling that design was stagnating and craftsmanship was losing quality. The aim was to counteract this with inspiring examples of technique, materials and motifs.
There used to be an East Asia exhibition. Now it is divided into Japan, Korea, Buddhism and China. The only common denominator is now Buddhism.
The Buddhism area displays exhibits from East and Central Asia together, including Chinese pieces. But in the other rooms, too, we repeatedly highlight transcultural relationships between East Asian design traditions. In the China exhibition, specific beliefs also play a role. For example, we have highlighted ancestor worship, which still shapes Chinese society today.
How can you tell that you are entering the Chinese section of the museum?
At the entrance, we actually start with pieces that people strongly associate with Chinese art – blue and white porcelain. But we have also placed a jug from Meissen in the display case. This highlights the transcultural relationship between East Asian and European design.
Would people from China also perceive this as Chinese art?
We probably should start a survey on this. What is important is to distinguish between export porcelain and porcelain created for the indigenous market. Porcelain from the imperial workshops for the imperial court is held in higher esteem in China – and in Europe today – than export porcelain. Porcelain from the imperial workshops that was designed for the emperor is unparalleled in its quality.
What would be a piece that breaks with common clichés?
It always depends on what visitors associate with China. Our aim is to focus on the design itself, to highlight the exceptional quality and perfectionism of the pieces. Perhaps some people may be surprised by the camel figurines. Camels are not necessarily the first animals associated with China. In the Tang Dynasty, however, they were an essential part of court culture, representing the flourishing trade along the Silk Road.
Your China collection at the Museum für Kunst und Gewerbe Hamburg comprises 3,000 pieces. How do you choose which one goes into the exhibition?
Yes, that is a big challenge and a great pleasure at the same time. We have taken into account the reception of China, which has changed over the decades. We also highlight the strengths of the collection and the most important pieces. We also show new things, like cloisonné, a special technique for enamel work. As a design museum, we also focus on the design principles and foundations of visual and material art and culture in China in this new installation.
The origin of the pieces is another important issue.
Selected items that we have looked into are marked with an orange triangle. We aim to create transparency. In addition to a possible connection between the pieces and the Nazi era, the colonial acquisition context is also important, for example. Together with six other German museums and the Palace Museum in Beijing, we are searching for and researching looted art such as “Traces of the ‘Boxer War’ in German museum collections.”
Which piece do you wish you could take home with you?
There are, of course, pieces that I absolutely adore, but that I don’t want to have at home because they are simply too valuable. Perhaps I would choose one of the Ai Weiwei chairs that he brought to Germany for Documenta in 2007 so that people could relax on them and reflect on what they had seen. They also serve the same purpose now in this exhibition. They date back to the Qing dynasty, are beautifully crafted, and keep adding more and more stories through their continued use.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
Some call them stripes, others call them spots! And so zebras in China are not called “striped” but “spotted horses” (斑 bān or 斑点 bāndiǎn means “spot, patch, blotch” plus 马 mǎ for “horse”). Incidentally, the word zebra is derived from the Spanish “enzebra,” which means “wild donkey.”
The largest Chinese military exercises in almost three decades were held off the coast of Taiwan yesterday. The constant military exercises not only wear out the Taiwanese army, they also blur the line between war and peace. After all, an exercise could easily escalate into a full-scale attack.
The Taiwanese government is particularly concerned about the fact that many Chinese Coast Guard vessels have recently been taking part in the exercises. After all, unlike the Navy, the Coast Guard is responsible for controlling the waters and shipping. The Taiwanese side believes that the People’s Liberation Army is simulating certain forms of blockade and quarantine. Andreas Landwehr has summarized for you what this would mean for the island state and the world.
Our second piece deals with a much more positive topic. The “Inspiration China” exhibition at Hamburg’s Museum für Kunst und Gewerbe displays a unique collection of Chinese craftsmanship. Its perfection once inspired Europe’s artisans. Curator Wibke Schrape spoke with Table.Briefings about porcelain, looted art and why the camel motif was so popular in the Tang dynasty.
Taiwan is alarmed. China plans to inspect merchant ships in the waters around the democratic island republic using its own patrols. Taipei describes the latest military exercises as China’s largest maritime deployment since 1996. Once again, numerous Chinese Coast Guard vessels are participating – as they did for the first time in the drills in May and October.
Almost 90 Navy and Coast Guard ships are moving around Taiwan – from southern Japan to the South China Sea. The large-scale operation is seen as a military response to the visit by Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te to Hawaii and the Pacific US territory of Guam last week. Beijing had also announced “vigorous countermeasures” to the latest US arms deliveries to Taiwan.
China is up to “something more serious,” warns a government official close to Lai. “If you look at China’s exercises, you can see that they practice on a completely different scale than in previous years.” The deployment of the Coast Guard is particularly “worrying,” says the source, who fears the threat could become a “new normal.” After all, unlike the Navy, the Coast Guard is responsible for controlling waters and shipping.
Liu Dejun, spokesperson for the Chinese Coast Guard, revealed in Beijing what strategy is being pursued after the “Joint Sword” maneuvers in October: The ships had “conducted law enforcement patrols in the waters surrounding Taiwan island.” The Coast Guard posted a photo with a red love heart symbolizing the encirclement of the island with “patrols in the shape of love.”
Three threat scenarios are being assessed at the presidential palace in Taipei: An invasion, a naval blockade and a so-called “quarantine” for merchant ships, which has government officials acutely worried: The Coast Guard, which is subordinate to the Chinese military, could temporarily detain merchant ships on their way to Taiwan for inspections. “They practice certain forms of blockades and quarantine,” they say.
During such inspections, cargo ships could be inspected for supposedly sensitive goods such as US weapons – and would have to request permission from China’s Coast Guard to continue their journey, confirming China’s claim to sovereignty. Such “quarantine” measures would not only have a massive impact on the exporting nation’s trade, but could also drive up insurance premiums for maritime shipping, as economic experts warn. Almost half of the global container fleet passes through the Taiwan Strait.
A complete naval blockade of the island with its 23 million inhabitants would be an “act of war” under international law from Taiwan’s point of view. However, a “quarantine” regime would be more of an “in-between” in a “gray zone.” Legally, China would invoke its “one-China principle,” according to which Taiwan belongs to the People’s Republic and Beijing exercises its sovereignty over its waters.
Many countries are not sufficiently prepared for such “legal warfare” by Beijing, warns Taipei. The majority, including Germany and the US, adhere to a “one-China policy” under Chinese pressure. According to this policy, Beijing is recognized as the legitimate government of China – but Taiwan is not recognized as part of the People’s Republic, which Beijing’s “one-China principle” insists on. The nuanced distinction between “policy” and “principle” is confusing but crucial. Meanwhile, most countries do not maintain official diplomatic relations with Taipei, which fits with Beijing’s sovereignty claim. Taiwan does, however, maintain numerous unofficial diplomatic missions around the world.
A “quarantine” regime would put the international community’s position to the test. The costs for Beijing – militarily or economically through sanctions – would be significantly lower than the risky gamble of an amphibious landing and invasion of the island. “Quarantine” measures could also be ramped up and down at will. They could generate massive political pressure to force the government in Taipei to the negotiating table and talk about “unification.”
An inspection regime would further increase the risk of escalation through unintended incidents. Experts agree that a war over Taiwan would be devastating: A massive international crisis that would have a much bigger global impact than the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
Even a naval blockade could cause a massive global economic collapse – simply by disrupting the semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan produces 92 percent of the most advanced logic chips and one-third of the less sophisticated but no less important semiconductors. The Rhodium Group estimates that these industries alone would lose 1.6 trillion US dollars every year in the event of a blockade. The social and economic impact of a chip shortage on this scale would “likely be catastrophic,” writes the think tank.
The stakes are high for Germany, Europe, the US and much of the world. In his first term as US President from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump tended to improve relations with Taiwan, with the Presidential Office in Taipei now talking about “significant progress in bilateral relations.”
However, these tensions require a balancing act and finesse for the complexity of the conflict, something for which the unpredictable Trump is not necessarily known. Unlike outgoing US President Joe Biden, who focused on alliances and cooperation with partners in the region against China, Trump prefers to forge bilateral relationships. Trump will likely increase the pressure on Taiwan to invest more in its defense.
Concerns that Trump could cut a “deal” with Beijing over Taiwan’s future are also dismissed by experts in Taipei, who point out that the US defense industry depends on semiconductors from Taiwan – for example for US fighter jets and other advanced weapons systems. “Where should the chips come from then?” asks a top executive from the semiconductor sector, who wishes to remain anonymous. “It wouldn’t be an easy decision for Trump to sell Taiwan out to China.”
It was perfection that once fascinated collectors, artists, museums and business people in Europe so much about Chinese craftsmanship. This inspired local art connoisseurs. For example, they ordered a traditional Bavarian beer stein from the artisans – so-called export porcelain. Other works, however, might surprise visitors. For example, various motifs of camels, which were much more common in China than often assumed in Europe due to the Silk Road.
Ms. Schrape, the title of the exhibition is “Inspiration China.” Who inspires whom?
Ideally, we want to inspire visitors to the “Museum für Kunst und Gewerbe Hamburg”. However, the title refers to the character of the collection. It was created in 1873 for the Vienna World Exhibition and serves as a model for local artisans. At that time, people began to collect East Asian objects specifically as a source of inspiration and role models. It was also a reaction to industrialization, where there was a feeling that design was stagnating and craftsmanship was losing quality. The aim was to counteract this with inspiring examples of technique, materials and motifs.
There used to be an East Asia exhibition. Now it is divided into Japan, Korea, Buddhism and China. The only common denominator is now Buddhism.
The Buddhism area displays exhibits from East and Central Asia together, including Chinese pieces. But in the other rooms, too, we repeatedly highlight transcultural relationships between East Asian design traditions. In the China exhibition, specific beliefs also play a role. For example, we have highlighted ancestor worship, which still shapes Chinese society today.
How can you tell that you are entering the Chinese section of the museum?
At the entrance, we actually start with pieces that people strongly associate with Chinese art – blue and white porcelain. But we have also placed a jug from Meissen in the display case. This highlights the transcultural relationship between East Asian and European design.
Would people from China also perceive this as Chinese art?
We probably should start a survey on this. What is important is to distinguish between export porcelain and porcelain created for the indigenous market. Porcelain from the imperial workshops for the imperial court is held in higher esteem in China – and in Europe today – than export porcelain. Porcelain from the imperial workshops that was designed for the emperor is unparalleled in its quality.
What would be a piece that breaks with common clichés?
It always depends on what visitors associate with China. Our aim is to focus on the design itself, to highlight the exceptional quality and perfectionism of the pieces. Perhaps some people may be surprised by the camel figurines. Camels are not necessarily the first animals associated with China. In the Tang Dynasty, however, they were an essential part of court culture, representing the flourishing trade along the Silk Road.
Your China collection at the Museum für Kunst und Gewerbe Hamburg comprises 3,000 pieces. How do you choose which one goes into the exhibition?
Yes, that is a big challenge and a great pleasure at the same time. We have taken into account the reception of China, which has changed over the decades. We also highlight the strengths of the collection and the most important pieces. We also show new things, like cloisonné, a special technique for enamel work. As a design museum, we also focus on the design principles and foundations of visual and material art and culture in China in this new installation.
The origin of the pieces is another important issue.
Selected items that we have looked into are marked with an orange triangle. We aim to create transparency. In addition to a possible connection between the pieces and the Nazi era, the colonial acquisition context is also important, for example. Together with six other German museums and the Palace Museum in Beijing, we are searching for and researching looted art such as “Traces of the ‘Boxer War’ in German museum collections.”
Which piece do you wish you could take home with you?
There are, of course, pieces that I absolutely adore, but that I don’t want to have at home because they are simply too valuable. Perhaps I would choose one of the Ai Weiwei chairs that he brought to Germany for Documenta in 2007 so that people could relax on them and reflect on what they had seen. They also serve the same purpose now in this exhibition. They date back to the Qing dynasty, are beautifully crafted, and keep adding more and more stories through their continued use.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
Some call them stripes, others call them spots! And so zebras in China are not called “striped” but “spotted horses” (斑 bān or 斑点 bāndiǎn means “spot, patch, blotch” plus 马 mǎ for “horse”). Incidentally, the word zebra is derived from the Spanish “enzebra,” which means “wild donkey.”
