China’s New Year’s TV gala last week featured an entertaining bit featuring humanoid robots. This is no coincidence: The Chinese government sees them as an important growth market. The forecast: Outwardly human-like machines will increasingly replace housekeeping, care staff and factory workers. Conservative estimates predict a 38 billion US dollar market in as little as ten years.
One thing seems certain: The path to global leadership in this technology industry probably only leads via China. As with electric cars, Chinese manufacturers have been participating in this field of technology from the beginning to establish themselves worldwide. Chinese politicians have been promoting the robotics industry for years, writes Jörn Petring. However, not only specialized robotics companies want to get involved, but also car manufacturers such as BYD or Xpeng.
Speaking of BYD: The world’s largest EV manufacturer is currently producing bad news in Brazil. In December, 163 Chinese guest workers were freed from slavery-like conditions who were supposed to complete a BYD plant in Bahia on the country’s east coast. Now, new details of their work contracts have come to light, shedding light on the dark side of globalization.
Lastly, Roderich Kiesewetter, chairman of the conservative CDU/CSU in the German parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, takes a controversial stance in today’s opinion piece. The former officer in the General Staff of the German Armed Forces calls for a clear German position “in the systemic war” between democracy and autocracy. Kieswetter argues that China and its autocratic bullies have long been on the offensive. That is why there can be no middle ground.
Last week’s Chinese New Year TV gala featured 16 humanoid robots performing together with human dancers. Dressed in red jackets, they performed a traditional Chinese folk dance. The black robots from the Chinese company Unitree demonstrated impressively precise movements. They not only mastered the complex choreography, but also swung red handkerchiefs, threw them in the air and caught them again.
China often uses the New Year’s Gala to showcase technological advances in its industries. After electric cars, drones and high-speed trains, humanoid robots are now moving into the spotlight. This is no coincidence: The Chinese government sees them as an important growth market.
Many experts believe that humanoid robots will increasingly be used as housekeepers and factory workers thanks to rapid AI development. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the global market for humanoid robots could grow to 38 billion US dollars by 2035 – a conservative estimate. Tesla CEO Elon Musk assumes there will be more humanoid robots than people someday. His “Optimus” model is set to become Tesla’s flagship product and turn the company into the world’s largest corporation.
Unitree, which, like AI newcomer DeepSeek, is based in Hangzhou, is one of the most well-known Chinese manufacturers. Its new H1 model, which was on show at the New Year’s Gala, is intended for use in both industry and the private sector. The 1.80-meter tall and 47-kilogram robot is designed to assist in hotels, hospitals, or shopping malls, for example. Thanks to its ability to carry loads and move safely through complex environments, it is also suitable for warehouses and logistics centers.
As with electric cars, Chinese manufacturers have been participating in this new technological field from the very beginning with the aim of becoming global leaders. Chinese politicians have been actively promoting robotics for years. It already plays a central role in the current five-year plan, which was adopted in 2021. In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published guidelines to advance humanoid robot development. The aim is for it to become a major industry by 2027 and have at least two to three leading global companies in the sector.
“After computers, smartphones and new energy vehicles, humanoid robots will probably be the next big disruptive product,” said Xu Xiaolan, former vice minister for industry and information technology, in Chinese state media. Industry observer Hong Shaodun also emphasizes: “Humanoid robots have evolved from laboratory prototypes to tangible products, entering a phase of increased intelligence and versatility this year.”
One thing seems certain: The path to the forefront of this industry will probably only go through China. And once again, the big names play an important role. BYD, for example, the world’s largest EV manufacturer, has so far been using the “Walker” robot developed by Shenzhen-based UBTech Robotics in its Chinese factories. However, BYD apparently wants to enter the production of humanoids itself and compete with Tesla.
According to Chinese media reports, BYD is currently working on a “state-of-the-art laboratory” to drive the development of humanoid robots. The company now seeks highly trained specialists to set up a dedicated robot development division. Other Chinese car manufacturers also want to repeat their EV success story with robots.
Chinese EV manufacturer Xpeng, a partner of VW, announced in November that it was working on its own model called “Iron.” The state-owned Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) presented its “GoMate” robot in December. Another robot that has attracted much attention is the SE01 by Engine AI. Videos recently went viral on social media showing the 1.70-meter tall humanoid robot walking through the tech metropolis of Shenzhen.
Incidentally, Unitree’s model, which turned heads at the New Year’s Gala, is available for pre-order on its website for 90,000 US dollars. The G1, a simpler model, is already available for 16,000 dollars. Both robots come with the addition: “Contact us for the real price.” The Chinese company’s robot dogs are already available on Amazon for between 3,000 and 4,000 dollars.
The employment contract of a Chinese migrant worker in Brazil sheds light on the slavery-like conditions at BYD contractor Jinjiang. The document, which was obtained by the Reuters news agency, required the workers to pay a deposit of 900 USD at the start of the contract. The workers were to receive this deposit back at the earliest after six months of employment. The management wanted to prevent dissatisfied workers from returning home prematurely. To be on the safe side, the company seized the workers’ passports.
The case shows the dark side of globalization when foreign companies exploit helpless workers from third countries in host countries. Chinese investors are also increasingly interested in setting up production plants in Germany and Europe. The incidents in Brazil are warning enough that European authorities must keep a close eye on the working conditions of foreign workers.
Various clauses gave the company the power to unilaterally extend the employment contract by six months and impose fines of 200 yuan (27 euros) for behavior such as swearing, arguing or walking around bare-chested on the construction site or in the living quarters. Many of the clauses “are typical warning signs of forced labor,” said Aaron Halegua, a lawyer and fellow at New York University Law School. Withholding workers’ passports or any form of performance bonds or security deposits is not permitted under either Brazilian or Chinese law, he said.
The 163 men and women were discovered at the end of last month on a construction site in Bahia in eastern Brazil. They had been employed by Jinjiang and brought from China to Brazil to build a factory for the Chinese EV market leader BYD. The working conditions prompted an investigation by the Brazilian authorities on suspicion of human trafficking.
According to Brazilian media reports, some workers slept on beds without mattresses. Up to 31 people had to share one toilet. According to the investigators, the workers had also entered Brazil illegally. The workers stated they could only leave their quarters with the employer’s permission. According to the contract, some agreed wages were more than double the minimum wage in many Chinese provinces. The workers were to receive over 65 euros per ten-hour shift. However, many wages were allegedly not paid out but transferred to China.
In response, Brazilian authorities suspended granting temporary work visas to the Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD. BYD has invested 620 million US dollars in plant construction in the coastal city of Bahia. Jinjiang, which is involved in the construction of BYD factories in China in cities such as Changzhou, Yangzhou and Hefei, rejects the accusations, claiming they result from incorrect translations.
Alexandre Baldy, Senior Vice President of BYD Brazil, told Reuters that the car manufacturer had no knowledge of these violations until initial reports by Brazilian media in late November. Baldy himself and BYD Brazil CEO Tyler Li met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on December 2. They promised Lula that BYD would take care of the problem, reports Reuters. Two weeks later, investigators found the BYD workers herded together in dormitories during a raid.
Baldy then denied having discussed the working conditions with Lula and claimed that the company had no knowledge of the Jinjiang labor contract. He promised BYD would ensure that “this situation never happens again.” There is currently no evidence that BYD was aware of the conditions. Nevertheless, BYD is “directly responsible” for the actions of a third-party contractor on its site, said Matheus Viana, acting chief of Brazil’s Division of Inspection for the Eradication of Slave Labor.
BYD plans to increase its production in Brazil to 150,000 cars this year. The news of the planned investment in Bahia raised hopes of new jobs for Brazilian workers. Around 5,000 Brazilians had lost their jobs after US car manufacturer Ford withdrew its production from Bahia in 2021. When BYD commissioned the Chinese contractor to build the factory, local construction workers were hugely disappointed. However, in a statement to Reuters, BYD assured that it wanted to create local jobs. The fully operational factory complex will employ 20,000 workers, including Brazilians.
However, the BYD plant in Bahia currently turns out to be the scene of a scandal in BYD’s largest market outside China. During the raid in December, investigators reportedly found copies of ten contracts with clauses similar to those seen by Reuters. Some workers told investigators they had not signed any contracts at all. Others reported that they had only signed their contracts after being in the country for months. BYD and Jinjiang are accused of obstructing the investigation by not telling investigators the address of where the workers were staying.
China is preparing to resume the ‘Phase 1’ trade agreement with the US. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government wants to pre-empt further tariffs and technology restrictions by the Trump administration. The 2020 ‘Phase 1’ agreement required China to increase its purchases of US goods by 200 billion dollars within two years. China did not fulfill this obligation due to the Covid pandemic. However, trade experts described the agreement as unrealistic from the outset.
According to WSJ sources, Beijing now plans to offer the US investments in EV batteries and reduce exports of fentanyl precursors, among other things. The Chinese government also wants to ensure that it will no longer devalue its national currency, the renminbi, to secure economic advantages. The Chinese government is also prepared to hold negotiations regarding TikTok: The app is to be treated as a purely “economic matter” in the future. This would pave the way for talks between the Chinese parent company ByteDance and US investors. It is currently unclear whether China would also allow access to the algorithm. It is the heart of the app and is currently included on an export control list.
Beijing’s plans are a reaction to Trump’s punitive tariffs of ten percent on Chinese imports, which come into force on Tuesday. A trade war of the magnitude of Trump’s first term is not yet in sight: China perceives the ten percent punitive tariffs more as a means of exerting pressure than as an unacceptable measure by the US. In view of China’s weak economic situation, President Xi Jinping has already signaled his willingness to negotiate. China’s current strategy is to get Trump to the negotiating table while developing retaliatory measures should the trade conflict escalate. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told journalists on Monday that the two leaders plan to speak on the phone this week to discuss these and other issues. ek
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns Panama of the consequences of China’s influence on the Panama Canal. Specifically, the issue is the involvement of a Hong Kong-based company in two ports near the Canal. US President Donald Trump considers China’s activities to be a violation of the 1977 US-Panama Treaty and a threat to the key waterway. Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino expressed his willingness to review existing agreements with Chinese companies. However, he stressed that Panama’s sovereignty over the Canal is non-negotiable.
At the beginning of his presidency, Trump announced he wanted to regain control of the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal is the second most important waterway in the world and has been owned by Panama since 1999. Both Rubio and Trump have so far left open what measures they want to take to control the Canal. On Sunday, Trump announced that he did not believe it was necessary to deploy the military. However, he emphasized that “something very powerful” would happen if no changes were made.
As part of his Central America tour, Rubio aims to curb China’s influence in the region and visited the Miraflores locks, the first locks of the Canal from the Pacific, among other things. He had previously expressed concerns that China could block the Panama Canal in the event of a conflict between the US and China. Following a personal meeting with Rubio, Mulino said he would not renew Panama’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China has already denied the US accusations: China respects Panama’s sovereignty over the waterway and has never meddled, said a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry. According to China’s UN ambassador on Monday, a meeting of the United Nations Security Council in two weeks could be a “very good opportunity” for China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to meet. He emphasized the need for cooperation as “so much is at stake.” ek
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has called for dialog with China. According to reports by Reuters, Lai said on Monday that this was necessary given the changes in the international situation. Lai referred to the new Trump administration, which is putting pressure on both China and Taiwan. Trump recently announced tariffs against China and threatened similar measures against semiconductor imports, most of which come from Taiwan.
Lai stressed that only Taiwan’s citizens would decide on their own future. Taiwan expressly welcomes talks with China based on equality. He said the goal was peace and the well-being of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan wants to join forces with other democracies to preserve its sovereignty.
China has yet to respond. The Chinese government regards Lai Ching-te as a separatist and urges Taiwan to recognize the “one-China policy.” Lai and his government have so far refused: “Only with Taiwan is there the Republic of China,” said Lai, alluding to Taiwan’s official name. ek
For the new Trump administration, bilateral and transnational cooperation will always be defined with China in mind. Trump will not only continue the pivot to Asia, but will also increasingly ask: What do you think about China? This conflict between the superpowers will shape many of his decisions.
China is increasingly forming a military and hybrid alliance under its leadership and for its benefit: CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea). The West must counter this with a comprehensive strategy. Part of a package that the Europeans should propose to Trump is not just the level of defense investment, the decisive takeover of support for Ukraine or burden-shifting. We also need a credible change in European and, above all, German China policy.
This requires Europeans to share the geostrategic burden and increase military and economic deterrence as well as overall societal readiness for war. Because in just one to three years, CRINK could take advantage of the West’s relative attrition and see itself at the advantage. Then there is the threat of an attack on Taiwan and a military conflict in the Indo-Pacific, which could cut off Western economies from semiconductor supplies.
CRINK is already using hybrid attacks to lay the ground for the battlefield of the future. Numerous attacks on undersea cables, massive waves of disinformation, cyber-attacks, and the purchase and acquisition of strategic economic enterprises and supply chains are evidence of this. China is a systemic rival and is already attacking us together with CRINK. The wishy-washy and backward-thinking triad of “partner – competitor – rival” is not just outdated. They are counterproductive. Determination, consistency and strength are the new currency.
A currency that the United States, but also Taiwan and other countries in the Indo-Pacific expect from us! And which our people need in their security interests. There are growing signs that China’s military and nuclear armament is not only making a conventional attack more likely. China is also increasing the potential for “victory without battle,” as the Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu defines it.
This danger is also a possible scenario for Taiwan. The island could be forced to surrender even without military intervention, for example, through a “quarantine”/blockade scenario or “purchase/currency swap.” Hybrid attacks, in particular, are being felt throughout the region. Exerting influence through disinformation and election interference are additional means used by China to stir up insecurity and mistrust against the US and democracy. Meanwhile, China keeps countries such as Taiwan and the Philippines highly dependent on its economy and energy. This not only gives China influence, but also the threat potential.
China uses subtle attempts to test the point at which the threshold for a military attack is crossed. The use of “civilian” Coast Guard vessels is particularly striking. In addition to cognitive warfare through China’s disinformation and AI manipulation, hybrid warfare is particularly relevant to security. Intensified activities can be observed here: massive military exercises, border violations, sabotage, and hybrid attacks.
In Taiwan, several attack scenarios are possible apart from a military attack, including an energy blockade, voluntary submission through cognitive warfare, and annexation by “purchase,” i.e., offering the population a 1:1 swap of Taiwan dollars. Another scenario: A blitzkrieg within a timeframe of up to eight weeks, during which US intervention is unlikely. More than one of these scenarios is also possible.
What is worrying in this context is China’s massive armament, both conventional and nuclear, but also with relevant know-how from Western collaborators. China’s espionage and influence operations in Germany should also be seen in this context.
China’s actions against some countries in the Indo-Pacific are an international problem, as they affect the freedom of sea routes and, thus, international law. China manipulates countries in Africa and South America and attempts to infiltrate international organizations. One problem is the “one-China policy,” which China manipulates in its favor and thus de facto changes international law.
In this respect, the threatened nations in the Pacific see the need to intensify their efforts to deter China. A coalition of like-minded states is needed: united against CRINK. And here, at the latest, strength, determination, and consistency are needed. This cannot be achieved with the current appeasement and one-China policy.
The problem is that Germany currently has no clear position on China. The one-China policy the People’s Republic laid out is an obstacle to a clear geostrategic positioning. However, the challenge posed by CRINK will force any future government to take a clear position: We must choose between democracy or autocracy in the systems war. There is no middle way!
If Germany wants to be a geopolitically credible partner, there are five points to consider.
Roderich Kiesewetter is a member of the Bundestag, spokesman for crisis prevention, CDU/CSU chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and deputy chairman of the Parliamentary Oversight Panel. He is a former General Staff Officer of the German Armed Forces and a retired Colonel (i.G.).
Editor’s note: Discussing China today means – more than ever – engaging in controversial debate. We aim to reflect a wide range of opinions to give you an insight into the breadth of the debate. Opinions do not reflect the views of the editorial team.
Yuhao Zhao has been Head of Global IDC Construction & Maintenance at China Mobile in Frankfurt since January. Zhao has been working in the Chinese telecoms provider’s European business since 2018. Prior to that, he worked for Huawei for seven years – three of them as a Data Center Solution Architect in Düsseldorf.
Tony Wu took over the position of Head of Logistics & Service Greater China at container shipping logistics company A.P. Moeller Maersk in January. Wu comes from DB Schenker, where he most recently held the role of
SVP Hong Kong, South & West China. He will be based in Hong Kong.
Is something changing in your organization? Let us know at heads@table.media!
Spring has already begun in China. At least according to the traditional Chinese calendar. 立春 (Lichun), the first of 24 sections of the solar calendar, began on Monday. Spring is welcomed in China by beating a “spring cow” – fortunately, only a symbolic one made of clay or papier-mâché. It is said to guarantee a good harvest. Or people watch folk dances, like here at the Old Observatory in the Dongcheng district of Beijing.
China’s New Year’s TV gala last week featured an entertaining bit featuring humanoid robots. This is no coincidence: The Chinese government sees them as an important growth market. The forecast: Outwardly human-like machines will increasingly replace housekeeping, care staff and factory workers. Conservative estimates predict a 38 billion US dollar market in as little as ten years.
One thing seems certain: The path to global leadership in this technology industry probably only leads via China. As with electric cars, Chinese manufacturers have been participating in this field of technology from the beginning to establish themselves worldwide. Chinese politicians have been promoting the robotics industry for years, writes Jörn Petring. However, not only specialized robotics companies want to get involved, but also car manufacturers such as BYD or Xpeng.
Speaking of BYD: The world’s largest EV manufacturer is currently producing bad news in Brazil. In December, 163 Chinese guest workers were freed from slavery-like conditions who were supposed to complete a BYD plant in Bahia on the country’s east coast. Now, new details of their work contracts have come to light, shedding light on the dark side of globalization.
Lastly, Roderich Kiesewetter, chairman of the conservative CDU/CSU in the German parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, takes a controversial stance in today’s opinion piece. The former officer in the General Staff of the German Armed Forces calls for a clear German position “in the systemic war” between democracy and autocracy. Kieswetter argues that China and its autocratic bullies have long been on the offensive. That is why there can be no middle ground.
Last week’s Chinese New Year TV gala featured 16 humanoid robots performing together with human dancers. Dressed in red jackets, they performed a traditional Chinese folk dance. The black robots from the Chinese company Unitree demonstrated impressively precise movements. They not only mastered the complex choreography, but also swung red handkerchiefs, threw them in the air and caught them again.
China often uses the New Year’s Gala to showcase technological advances in its industries. After electric cars, drones and high-speed trains, humanoid robots are now moving into the spotlight. This is no coincidence: The Chinese government sees them as an important growth market.
Many experts believe that humanoid robots will increasingly be used as housekeepers and factory workers thanks to rapid AI development. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the global market for humanoid robots could grow to 38 billion US dollars by 2035 – a conservative estimate. Tesla CEO Elon Musk assumes there will be more humanoid robots than people someday. His “Optimus” model is set to become Tesla’s flagship product and turn the company into the world’s largest corporation.
Unitree, which, like AI newcomer DeepSeek, is based in Hangzhou, is one of the most well-known Chinese manufacturers. Its new H1 model, which was on show at the New Year’s Gala, is intended for use in both industry and the private sector. The 1.80-meter tall and 47-kilogram robot is designed to assist in hotels, hospitals, or shopping malls, for example. Thanks to its ability to carry loads and move safely through complex environments, it is also suitable for warehouses and logistics centers.
As with electric cars, Chinese manufacturers have been participating in this new technological field from the very beginning with the aim of becoming global leaders. Chinese politicians have been actively promoting robotics for years. It already plays a central role in the current five-year plan, which was adopted in 2021. In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published guidelines to advance humanoid robot development. The aim is for it to become a major industry by 2027 and have at least two to three leading global companies in the sector.
“After computers, smartphones and new energy vehicles, humanoid robots will probably be the next big disruptive product,” said Xu Xiaolan, former vice minister for industry and information technology, in Chinese state media. Industry observer Hong Shaodun also emphasizes: “Humanoid robots have evolved from laboratory prototypes to tangible products, entering a phase of increased intelligence and versatility this year.”
One thing seems certain: The path to the forefront of this industry will probably only go through China. And once again, the big names play an important role. BYD, for example, the world’s largest EV manufacturer, has so far been using the “Walker” robot developed by Shenzhen-based UBTech Robotics in its Chinese factories. However, BYD apparently wants to enter the production of humanoids itself and compete with Tesla.
According to Chinese media reports, BYD is currently working on a “state-of-the-art laboratory” to drive the development of humanoid robots. The company now seeks highly trained specialists to set up a dedicated robot development division. Other Chinese car manufacturers also want to repeat their EV success story with robots.
Chinese EV manufacturer Xpeng, a partner of VW, announced in November that it was working on its own model called “Iron.” The state-owned Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) presented its “GoMate” robot in December. Another robot that has attracted much attention is the SE01 by Engine AI. Videos recently went viral on social media showing the 1.70-meter tall humanoid robot walking through the tech metropolis of Shenzhen.
Incidentally, Unitree’s model, which turned heads at the New Year’s Gala, is available for pre-order on its website for 90,000 US dollars. The G1, a simpler model, is already available for 16,000 dollars. Both robots come with the addition: “Contact us for the real price.” The Chinese company’s robot dogs are already available on Amazon for between 3,000 and 4,000 dollars.
The employment contract of a Chinese migrant worker in Brazil sheds light on the slavery-like conditions at BYD contractor Jinjiang. The document, which was obtained by the Reuters news agency, required the workers to pay a deposit of 900 USD at the start of the contract. The workers were to receive this deposit back at the earliest after six months of employment. The management wanted to prevent dissatisfied workers from returning home prematurely. To be on the safe side, the company seized the workers’ passports.
The case shows the dark side of globalization when foreign companies exploit helpless workers from third countries in host countries. Chinese investors are also increasingly interested in setting up production plants in Germany and Europe. The incidents in Brazil are warning enough that European authorities must keep a close eye on the working conditions of foreign workers.
Various clauses gave the company the power to unilaterally extend the employment contract by six months and impose fines of 200 yuan (27 euros) for behavior such as swearing, arguing or walking around bare-chested on the construction site or in the living quarters. Many of the clauses “are typical warning signs of forced labor,” said Aaron Halegua, a lawyer and fellow at New York University Law School. Withholding workers’ passports or any form of performance bonds or security deposits is not permitted under either Brazilian or Chinese law, he said.
The 163 men and women were discovered at the end of last month on a construction site in Bahia in eastern Brazil. They had been employed by Jinjiang and brought from China to Brazil to build a factory for the Chinese EV market leader BYD. The working conditions prompted an investigation by the Brazilian authorities on suspicion of human trafficking.
According to Brazilian media reports, some workers slept on beds without mattresses. Up to 31 people had to share one toilet. According to the investigators, the workers had also entered Brazil illegally. The workers stated they could only leave their quarters with the employer’s permission. According to the contract, some agreed wages were more than double the minimum wage in many Chinese provinces. The workers were to receive over 65 euros per ten-hour shift. However, many wages were allegedly not paid out but transferred to China.
In response, Brazilian authorities suspended granting temporary work visas to the Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD. BYD has invested 620 million US dollars in plant construction in the coastal city of Bahia. Jinjiang, which is involved in the construction of BYD factories in China in cities such as Changzhou, Yangzhou and Hefei, rejects the accusations, claiming they result from incorrect translations.
Alexandre Baldy, Senior Vice President of BYD Brazil, told Reuters that the car manufacturer had no knowledge of these violations until initial reports by Brazilian media in late November. Baldy himself and BYD Brazil CEO Tyler Li met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on December 2. They promised Lula that BYD would take care of the problem, reports Reuters. Two weeks later, investigators found the BYD workers herded together in dormitories during a raid.
Baldy then denied having discussed the working conditions with Lula and claimed that the company had no knowledge of the Jinjiang labor contract. He promised BYD would ensure that “this situation never happens again.” There is currently no evidence that BYD was aware of the conditions. Nevertheless, BYD is “directly responsible” for the actions of a third-party contractor on its site, said Matheus Viana, acting chief of Brazil’s Division of Inspection for the Eradication of Slave Labor.
BYD plans to increase its production in Brazil to 150,000 cars this year. The news of the planned investment in Bahia raised hopes of new jobs for Brazilian workers. Around 5,000 Brazilians had lost their jobs after US car manufacturer Ford withdrew its production from Bahia in 2021. When BYD commissioned the Chinese contractor to build the factory, local construction workers were hugely disappointed. However, in a statement to Reuters, BYD assured that it wanted to create local jobs. The fully operational factory complex will employ 20,000 workers, including Brazilians.
However, the BYD plant in Bahia currently turns out to be the scene of a scandal in BYD’s largest market outside China. During the raid in December, investigators reportedly found copies of ten contracts with clauses similar to those seen by Reuters. Some workers told investigators they had not signed any contracts at all. Others reported that they had only signed their contracts after being in the country for months. BYD and Jinjiang are accused of obstructing the investigation by not telling investigators the address of where the workers were staying.
China is preparing to resume the ‘Phase 1’ trade agreement with the US. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government wants to pre-empt further tariffs and technology restrictions by the Trump administration. The 2020 ‘Phase 1’ agreement required China to increase its purchases of US goods by 200 billion dollars within two years. China did not fulfill this obligation due to the Covid pandemic. However, trade experts described the agreement as unrealistic from the outset.
According to WSJ sources, Beijing now plans to offer the US investments in EV batteries and reduce exports of fentanyl precursors, among other things. The Chinese government also wants to ensure that it will no longer devalue its national currency, the renminbi, to secure economic advantages. The Chinese government is also prepared to hold negotiations regarding TikTok: The app is to be treated as a purely “economic matter” in the future. This would pave the way for talks between the Chinese parent company ByteDance and US investors. It is currently unclear whether China would also allow access to the algorithm. It is the heart of the app and is currently included on an export control list.
Beijing’s plans are a reaction to Trump’s punitive tariffs of ten percent on Chinese imports, which come into force on Tuesday. A trade war of the magnitude of Trump’s first term is not yet in sight: China perceives the ten percent punitive tariffs more as a means of exerting pressure than as an unacceptable measure by the US. In view of China’s weak economic situation, President Xi Jinping has already signaled his willingness to negotiate. China’s current strategy is to get Trump to the negotiating table while developing retaliatory measures should the trade conflict escalate. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told journalists on Monday that the two leaders plan to speak on the phone this week to discuss these and other issues. ek
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns Panama of the consequences of China’s influence on the Panama Canal. Specifically, the issue is the involvement of a Hong Kong-based company in two ports near the Canal. US President Donald Trump considers China’s activities to be a violation of the 1977 US-Panama Treaty and a threat to the key waterway. Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino expressed his willingness to review existing agreements with Chinese companies. However, he stressed that Panama’s sovereignty over the Canal is non-negotiable.
At the beginning of his presidency, Trump announced he wanted to regain control of the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal is the second most important waterway in the world and has been owned by Panama since 1999. Both Rubio and Trump have so far left open what measures they want to take to control the Canal. On Sunday, Trump announced that he did not believe it was necessary to deploy the military. However, he emphasized that “something very powerful” would happen if no changes were made.
As part of his Central America tour, Rubio aims to curb China’s influence in the region and visited the Miraflores locks, the first locks of the Canal from the Pacific, among other things. He had previously expressed concerns that China could block the Panama Canal in the event of a conflict between the US and China. Following a personal meeting with Rubio, Mulino said he would not renew Panama’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China has already denied the US accusations: China respects Panama’s sovereignty over the waterway and has never meddled, said a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry. According to China’s UN ambassador on Monday, a meeting of the United Nations Security Council in two weeks could be a “very good opportunity” for China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to meet. He emphasized the need for cooperation as “so much is at stake.” ek
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has called for dialog with China. According to reports by Reuters, Lai said on Monday that this was necessary given the changes in the international situation. Lai referred to the new Trump administration, which is putting pressure on both China and Taiwan. Trump recently announced tariffs against China and threatened similar measures against semiconductor imports, most of which come from Taiwan.
Lai stressed that only Taiwan’s citizens would decide on their own future. Taiwan expressly welcomes talks with China based on equality. He said the goal was peace and the well-being of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan wants to join forces with other democracies to preserve its sovereignty.
China has yet to respond. The Chinese government regards Lai Ching-te as a separatist and urges Taiwan to recognize the “one-China policy.” Lai and his government have so far refused: “Only with Taiwan is there the Republic of China,” said Lai, alluding to Taiwan’s official name. ek
For the new Trump administration, bilateral and transnational cooperation will always be defined with China in mind. Trump will not only continue the pivot to Asia, but will also increasingly ask: What do you think about China? This conflict between the superpowers will shape many of his decisions.
China is increasingly forming a military and hybrid alliance under its leadership and for its benefit: CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea). The West must counter this with a comprehensive strategy. Part of a package that the Europeans should propose to Trump is not just the level of defense investment, the decisive takeover of support for Ukraine or burden-shifting. We also need a credible change in European and, above all, German China policy.
This requires Europeans to share the geostrategic burden and increase military and economic deterrence as well as overall societal readiness for war. Because in just one to three years, CRINK could take advantage of the West’s relative attrition and see itself at the advantage. Then there is the threat of an attack on Taiwan and a military conflict in the Indo-Pacific, which could cut off Western economies from semiconductor supplies.
CRINK is already using hybrid attacks to lay the ground for the battlefield of the future. Numerous attacks on undersea cables, massive waves of disinformation, cyber-attacks, and the purchase and acquisition of strategic economic enterprises and supply chains are evidence of this. China is a systemic rival and is already attacking us together with CRINK. The wishy-washy and backward-thinking triad of “partner – competitor – rival” is not just outdated. They are counterproductive. Determination, consistency and strength are the new currency.
A currency that the United States, but also Taiwan and other countries in the Indo-Pacific expect from us! And which our people need in their security interests. There are growing signs that China’s military and nuclear armament is not only making a conventional attack more likely. China is also increasing the potential for “victory without battle,” as the Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu defines it.
This danger is also a possible scenario for Taiwan. The island could be forced to surrender even without military intervention, for example, through a “quarantine”/blockade scenario or “purchase/currency swap.” Hybrid attacks, in particular, are being felt throughout the region. Exerting influence through disinformation and election interference are additional means used by China to stir up insecurity and mistrust against the US and democracy. Meanwhile, China keeps countries such as Taiwan and the Philippines highly dependent on its economy and energy. This not only gives China influence, but also the threat potential.
China uses subtle attempts to test the point at which the threshold for a military attack is crossed. The use of “civilian” Coast Guard vessels is particularly striking. In addition to cognitive warfare through China’s disinformation and AI manipulation, hybrid warfare is particularly relevant to security. Intensified activities can be observed here: massive military exercises, border violations, sabotage, and hybrid attacks.
In Taiwan, several attack scenarios are possible apart from a military attack, including an energy blockade, voluntary submission through cognitive warfare, and annexation by “purchase,” i.e., offering the population a 1:1 swap of Taiwan dollars. Another scenario: A blitzkrieg within a timeframe of up to eight weeks, during which US intervention is unlikely. More than one of these scenarios is also possible.
What is worrying in this context is China’s massive armament, both conventional and nuclear, but also with relevant know-how from Western collaborators. China’s espionage and influence operations in Germany should also be seen in this context.
China’s actions against some countries in the Indo-Pacific are an international problem, as they affect the freedom of sea routes and, thus, international law. China manipulates countries in Africa and South America and attempts to infiltrate international organizations. One problem is the “one-China policy,” which China manipulates in its favor and thus de facto changes international law.
In this respect, the threatened nations in the Pacific see the need to intensify their efforts to deter China. A coalition of like-minded states is needed: united against CRINK. And here, at the latest, strength, determination, and consistency are needed. This cannot be achieved with the current appeasement and one-China policy.
The problem is that Germany currently has no clear position on China. The one-China policy the People’s Republic laid out is an obstacle to a clear geostrategic positioning. However, the challenge posed by CRINK will force any future government to take a clear position: We must choose between democracy or autocracy in the systems war. There is no middle way!
If Germany wants to be a geopolitically credible partner, there are five points to consider.
Roderich Kiesewetter is a member of the Bundestag, spokesman for crisis prevention, CDU/CSU chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and deputy chairman of the Parliamentary Oversight Panel. He is a former General Staff Officer of the German Armed Forces and a retired Colonel (i.G.).
Editor’s note: Discussing China today means – more than ever – engaging in controversial debate. We aim to reflect a wide range of opinions to give you an insight into the breadth of the debate. Opinions do not reflect the views of the editorial team.
Yuhao Zhao has been Head of Global IDC Construction & Maintenance at China Mobile in Frankfurt since January. Zhao has been working in the Chinese telecoms provider’s European business since 2018. Prior to that, he worked for Huawei for seven years – three of them as a Data Center Solution Architect in Düsseldorf.
Tony Wu took over the position of Head of Logistics & Service Greater China at container shipping logistics company A.P. Moeller Maersk in January. Wu comes from DB Schenker, where he most recently held the role of
SVP Hong Kong, South & West China. He will be based in Hong Kong.
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Spring has already begun in China. At least according to the traditional Chinese calendar. 立春 (Lichun), the first of 24 sections of the solar calendar, began on Monday. Spring is welcomed in China by beating a “spring cow” – fortunately, only a symbolic one made of clay or papier-mâché. It is said to guarantee a good harvest. Or people watch folk dances, like here at the Old Observatory in the Dongcheng district of Beijing.