Table.Briefing: China (English)

Baerbock at Koerber + China at COP28

Dear reader,

Changing the world order together with other emerging powers – with these unequivocal words, Chen Dingding described China’s goal yesterday at the Foreign Policy Forum hosted by the Koerber Foundation. Admittedly, this statement by the Professor of International Relations at Jinan University was more of a side note. But in fact, he had spoken the truth.

Shifts in the global balance of power were a recurring theme at the event in Berlin. According to a survey by the Koerber Foundation, almost two-thirds of German citizens favor more economic independence from China. However, not everyone has the same understanding of these goals, writes Michael Radunski in his analysis. Clearly, the popular catchphrase “de-risking” is no substitute for a well-defined strategy and its consistent implementation.

Christiane Kuehl’s outlook on China’s role at the upcoming climate conference COP28 is slightly more optimistic. Everyone knows that effective climate action is impossible without the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Fortunately, the days when China refused any climate cooperation are gone. She predicts that Beijing will negotiate hard on deadlines and finances. However, when it comes to the expansion of renewables in particular, China has long been a leading nation. COP28 kicks off on Thursday in Dubai.

Your
Carolyn Braun
Image of Carolyn  Braun

Feature

Baerbock sees German foreign policy in a decisive phase

Moderator Tina Hassel, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and Annalena Baerbock in Berlin on Tuesday at the Foreign Policy Forum.

Annalena Baerbock left no doubt about the urgency of the matter. “We are in a decisive phase of German foreign policy,” said the German Foreign Minister at the opening of the Koerber Foundation’s Berlin Foreign Policy Forum 2023. Germany must now find its role and fulfill its responsibilities. “If we don’t occupy this space, other players will push their way into it.” And she made it clear: These countries want a different global community.

Although Baerbock did not mention any names on this Tuesday morning in Berlin, the attending foreign policy experts certainly knew who she was referring to above all: China. While the United States has been shaping the global order to its own liking for decades and other players such as Russia have pushed themselves to the sidelines, the People’s Republic has massively increased its influence in recent years.

China’s president has for some time now made no secret of his goals: Xi Jinping’s narrative is that the world is going through “changes the likes of which we haven’t seen in 100 years” (百年未有之大变局). These changes are supposed to lead China back to its rightful place: the top.

‘China wants to change the world order’

Chen Dingding did not want to put it quite so bluntly at Tuesday’s Foreign Policy Forum. Instead, the Professor of International Relations at Jinan University emphasized China’s desire for stability under the UN Charter. He explained that Beijing wanted to use its growing influence to achieve growth and regional stability. China recently achieved this through mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

But then, on a side note, Chen inadvertently revealed: China and emerging countries seek to change the world order. After all, there is not one, but many different world orders, the Chinese foreign policy expert hastily added.

Chinese expert stresses common values

Chen must have immediately realized the impact this statement could have. And so he immediately tried to reassure the audience: “Our values are not completely different, there are definitely overlaps.” There would, of course, be differences and disputes from time to time.

But the numbers don’t lie, said Chen: China and Germany have been each other’s most important trading partners for years. And in any event, why would China want to overthrow the world order when it is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the existing system, Chen asked rhetorically.

Germans see China’s rise negative

However, this perception is becoming less and less mutual. A growing number of Germans look at China with concern. Around 62 percent of Germans have a negative view of the People’s Republic’s growing influence. Only six percent still consider it positive. This is the result of the representative survey “The Berlin Pulse” conducted by the Koerber Foundation.

In addition, most Germans share the goal of de-risking set out in the German government’s China strategy. Six out of ten Germans favor gaining greater economic independence from China – even if this could mean economic damage and lost jobs.

German economy at risk

Alicia García-Herrero from the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel is not surprised by these numbers. “Germans have always worried about their economy above all else. They used to say: China is the biggest sales market. Now they say: China is our competitor and rival,” she explained Tuesday.

In her opinion, the Germans’ concerns are entirely warranted: The German economy is in danger, if only because of its export-focus structure. However, Germany and China are complementing each other less and less. Instead, mutual competition is increasing:

  • on the Chinese market because Chinese companies have stepped up production for the domestic market;
  • on markets outside the EU, where highly subsidized Chinese companies snatch customers away from German companies.

What is de-risking?

Consequently, de-risking seems to be the name of the game. However, this approach requires urgent substance. Should the entire economy be de-risked or only certain sectors? Full de-risking or just a few percentages? Chen Dingding’s words about numbers that don’t lie also carry a warning.

China has, in fact, been Germany’s largest trading partner since 2016. Bilateral trade amounts to almost 300 billion euros. For some of the largest German companies, China is also the indispensable core market – for example, for the major car manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz or the chemical giant BASF.

China has a plan – but does Germany?

Accordingly, de-risking for Mercedes or BASF means more investment in China, not less. BASF CEO Martin Brudermuller justified this approach a few months ago by saying that “Asia Pacific will represent around 70 percent of the global chemical market with more than half of the global chemical industry sales and about three quarters of global chemical production growth coming from China alone” – and BASF wants to participate in this growth.

This shows that the catchy catchphrase “de-risking” is no substitute for a plan. This also came up at the Koerber event in Berlin on Tuesday. Shamika Ravi from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council said that she was surprised during her talks in Germany that the country had no plan for China. “Because we can tell them one thing as a direct neighbor of the People’s Republic: China has a plan.”

  • Economy
  • Geopolitics
  • Trade
  • USA

China’s strategy at COP28: Following the majority

While China continues to expand renewables, it also remains loyal to coal: the Zhangye coal-fired power plant in Gansu province is currently undergoing expansion.

Shortly before the start of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, all negotiators know that effective climate action is impossible without China. Even if the delegation from the People’s Republic will probably be a difficult discussion partner at the conference: The days of China refusing any climate cooperation are thankfully over.

But China will push its own interests and hit the West where it hurts: money. Instead of leading the way, it will follow the majority. However, this also means that it will occasionally be open to compromise when it comes to issues that do not directly go against China’s interests.

Continued self-image as an emerging country

No other country invests more in renewables and builds more wind and solar power plants than China. Yet, Beijing continues to approve the construction of new coal-fired power plants. Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic output have been declining for years – but they continue to rise in absolute terms. China will remain the world’s largest emitter for the foreseeable future.

In 2021, President Xi Jinping announced China’s first official climate targets at the United Nations. Beijing aims to

  • peak its carbon emissions “before 2030”,
  • and achieve net zero by 2060.

Most developed countries aim to be climate-neutral by 2050. However, Beijing insists that, as an emerging economy, it needs more time for the transformation than the industrialized West. At COP28, the 200 parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change will discuss the current state of climate efforts, the so-called Global Stocktake. The intention is to derive new guidelines and more ambitious climate targets for individual countries from it. The pressure on China is also likely to increase.

China and the US: key to COP28 success

The quality of cooperation between China and the US is considered the key to successful climate conferences. The two superpowers made the Paris Agreement possible in the first place with a joint declaration in 2015. In 2021, both brought the stalled negotiations back on track at COP26 in Glasgow.

At the time, both decided to set up a joint climate working group, and China agreed to finally draw up a methane strategy. Over a 100-year period, methane warms the earth around 30 times more than carbon dioxide. But none of this was implemented, as relations later plunged into a deep crisis.

The emission superpowers talk to each other

Only in recent weeks have there been signs of a thaw. In mid-November, the two climate envoys, John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, released the joint “Sunnyland Declaration.” It states that China and the USA will work towards tripling renewable energy capacities by 2030, which was set at the G20 summit in New Delhi. For the first time, China agreed to develop national climate targets for all sectors of the economy.

Both also finally realized their 2021 plans: The climate working group is now being formed and China published its first methane strategy shortly after the summit. However, it did not include any concrete targets and can only be considered a start.

‘Return to the absolute minimum’

Of course, it is positive that the USA and China are talking to each other again, says climate policy expert Nis Grünberg from the Merics Institute. “But in principle, the Sunnyland Declaration is just a return to the absolute minimum.” The vague wording of the declaration shows “that this is the lowest common denominator, a return to a difficult negotiating table,” Gruenberg told Table.Media. The geopolitical situation cannot simply be ignored, even when it comes to climate action. “We must accept that climate policy has become part of national interest and security policy.”

The talks often prove difficult due to the hierarchical power structure in the People’s Republic. “Working-level Chinese negotiators are constrained by a narrow mandate,” writes Li Shuo, future director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

In China’s system, “sticking to instructions” is more valued than “innovation, flexibility, and solution seeking.” However, Li says that apart from the sometimes harsh rhetoric, “Beijing has a track record of following the majority view and is reluctant to block consensus.”

China expands renewables ahead of schedule

China is already feeling the effects of the climate crisis. The climate in the already dry north is getting drier and drier; this year, a severe heatwave hit large parts of the country, accompanied by heavy rainfall events. This means Beijing is also making climate efforts in its own interests. Expanding renewables is easier for the government than phasing out coal.

Xi Jinping wants to have 455 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity installed in the deserts of the north-west by 2030. By then, around 1,200 gigawatts of installed wind and solar power systems will generate electricity.

Many experts believe China will probably reach the expansion target even earlier – as well as the goal of generating one-third of its electricity from renewables by 2025. A recent study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Helsinki concludes that China’s greenhouse gas emissions will likely enter a “structural decline” as early as 2024 – and not in 2030, as previously announced. This means that China is likely to be constructive on renewables at COP28.

Touchy subject at COP28: the fossil fuel phase-out

However, negotiations with China and other emerging economies regarding the fossil fuel phase-out will probably be challenging. It is expected to be a prominent issue at COP28. China rejects a pledge to phase out coal, as coal-fired power generation is considered a guarantee of energy security in difficult times. The coal lobby, which is dominated by state-owned companies, also remains strong. Xie Zhenhua has already called the fossil fuel phase-out “unrealistic.”

But the People’s Republic is also pointing the finger at the West when it comes to fossil fuels, says Gruenberg. “Because we, too, are not doing enough to achieve the 1.5-degree target and are hesitating to phase out fossil fuels.” Beijing will always insist that each country is allowed to implement decarbonization based on its own national circumstances. “China says, ‘We will phase out as quickly as we can’.”

Huge potential for financial disputes

Many jobs in some provinces depend on coal. The country has significant excess power plant capacity and many outdated power stations, some of which are supposed to be replaced. Coal consumption is not expected to decline before 2030. China also struggles to reduce coal-based steel production. It would be a sensation if Beijing’s delegation were to make changes regarding fossil fuels.

It would be equally surprising if China agreed to make a financial contribution to the compensation fund for loss and damage in poor countries decided at COP27 in Egypt. The People’s Republic has so far refused to do so – arguing that it is a developing country itself. The fund’s financing will be one of the controversial issues at COP28.

  • UNFCCC

Sinolytics.Radar

China is on its way to becoming the number one car exporter

Dieser Inhalt ist Lizenznehmern unserer Vollversion vorbehalten.
  • Europe overtook Asia to become China’s largest EV export destination in 2021 and has continued to dominate the scene ever since. Nearly 45 percent of Chinese EVs shipped overseas went to Europe in 2023. Compared to other parts of the world, European countries’ stronger policy support for EVs, more sophisticated charging infrastructure and generally higher consumer acceptance have made the region a highly attractive market for Chinese EV manufacturers. ​
  • Within Europe, Belgium, the UK and Spain are the top 3 export destinations for Chinese EVs. Ports in Belgium and Spain are already facing capacity issues as they struggle to handle the large volumes of vehicles from China that are then sold to various countries in Europe. ​
  • European consumers are not only the biggest buyers of Chinese EVs, they also pay higher prices than in other countries and regions. The average export price of EVs shipped to Europe is around 30,000 US dollars (27,000 euros). The export price to Norway amounted to 39,000 US dollars (36,500 euros) and was therefore well above the average price of 24,000 US dollars (22,000 euros) of all EVs exported last year.
  • Despite the encouraging export data, Chinese brands face challenges on several fronts in the European market. Brand awareness for Chinese EVs in Europe is much lower than that of the regional champions and Tesla. MG has shaken up the market, but most European consumers perceive it as a British brand, even though it is now developed and produced by SAIC, China’s largest carmaker. As a result, no real Chinese brand has made it to the top sales list in Europe.​
  • Chinese EV manufacturers are struggling to navigate the growing compliance risks posed by requirements on data protection, carbon footprint and supply chain due diligence, as they brace for an ongoing anti-subsidy investigation and potential tariff hikes thereafter.​

Sinolytics is a European research-based consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.

  • Autoindustrie
  • Elektromobilität
  • Europe
  • Export
  • Export

News

Dangerous situation on the border with Myanmar

China has responded to heavy fighting between rebel groups and the ruling military junta with a military exercise lasting several days in the remote border region with Myanmar. Officially, Beijing speaks of a routine maneuver. However, during recent talks with high-ranking Myanmar officials, the country’s leadership expressed concern about security along the 2,100-kilometer border. In early November, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called on the military government in Naypyidaw to cooperate with China on border security. According to the provincial government of Yunnan, the maneuvers were to continue until Tuesday. On Tuesday, three Chinese navy ships also arrived in Myanmar for joint exercises.

The situation in northern Myanmar is becoming increasingly volatile. In late October, three resistance groups launched a major offensive against the junta in the rugged mountain and forest regions of northern Myanmar. Since then, clashes have continued in the immediate vicinity of the border with China. For instance, at least ten refugees recently died in their vehicle during a rocket attack on the border town of Laukkai, for which the rebels and the military hold each other responsible. At the end of last week, 120 trucks arriving from China went up in flames in the town of Muse near a border crossing. The military recently lost control of the border crossing, as well as several towns and military outposts in the north-east of the country.

Myanmar extradites Chinese criminals

Beijing supports the military and supplies it with weapons, yet it also maintains decades-long relations with one of the rebel groups in the Shan State, whose members have Chinese roots.

Chinese criminal gangs are also active in the embattled border region. According to Chinese state media, they operate around 1,000 centers there, where they force kidnapped prisoners to commit telephone fraud. The captives are then set up with fake online profiles to target their victims in China. The Chinese police have been cracking down on the gangs since September. As was revealed last week, Myanmar authorities have now extradited 31,000 suspects to China – including 63 financiers and ringleaders of crime syndicates who are believed to have scammed Chinese citizens out of large sums of money. In November, Beijing presented a draft decree aimed at toughening punishments for scam. ck/rtr

  • Geopolitics
  • Geopolitik
  • Myanmar

Li for tighter supply chains and against decoupling

China is stepping up its charm offensive to attract foreign investment. “We are willing to build closer production and industrial supply chain partnerships with all countries,” Li told the first China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE). This was reported by the South China Morning Post.

It is no coincidence that the supply chain trade fair – the first of its kind – is being held at a time when Western economies increasingly rely on de-risking. Among the 550 exhibitors are 130 foreign companies, including companies such as Apple and Tesla. Li warned of “challenges and risks brought about by protectionism and uncontrolled globalization” and said China will continue to create an international business environment based on the rule of law.

In the third quarter, foreign direct investment in China was net negative for the first time since 1998. In order to counter the mounting skepticism, the Chinese government has already presented a range of support measures. Jens Eskelund, President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said the fair was expected to give “a clearer position on how China sees its role in global supply chains, as well as how some of the pressing issues in trade and globalization can be addressed.” He also expects it to highlight the opportunities China can offer to strengthen global supply chains. cyb

  • Lieferketten

First post-pandemic EU-China summit in Beijing

The EU and China are in the final preparations for next week’s summit in Beijing. As the European External Action Service (EEAS) announced on Tuesday, the Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs at the EEAS, Enrique Mora, and China’s Vice Foreign Minister, Sun Weidong, exchanged views on several topics such as the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. At Monday’s meeting, the EU once again urged China to participate in a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine.

The EU-China summit will be held next Thursday and Friday in Beijing. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel will meet China’s President Xi Jinping; Premier Li Qiang will then chair the actual summit alongside the EU representatives. The list of topics is long. It is very likely that Beijing will once again express its disapproval of the EU investigation into Chinese EVs.

After several years of video links, the summit will now be held in person for the first time since 2019. In 2019, Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker still represented the EU. On the Chinese side, it was Premier Li Keqiang. Xi received Charles Michel in Beijing in December 2022. He last met von der Leyen in April, shortly after the EU Commission President gave a keynote speech on China. ari

  • EEAS
  • EU

Lithuania: Trade dispute with China is over

According to Lithuania’s foreign minister, the trade dispute between China and Lithuania has been resolved. After discussions and various diplomatic processes – some of which are still ongoing at the World Trade Organization (WTO) – “most of the economic pressure measures against Lithuania have been lifted,” Gabrielius Landsbergis told the Lithuanian news agency ELTA on Tuesday.

Although trade has not been fully restored, the difference has been “more than compensated for” by trade with other Indo-Pacific states. “Businesses are not choosing China as a partner because of previous experiences,” said Landsbergis.

The trade dispute between the EU state and China followed Beijing’s anger over a “Taiwan office” in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius. In December 2021, China imposed a de facto trade embargo on Lithuania because of the name of the new Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius. Chinese customs had rejected Lithuanian goods. Lithuania took the matter to the WTO.

Landsbergis emphasized that the name of the office will not change. Most Taiwanese offices in European capitals bear the name “Taipei.” ari

  • Litauen

Shein reportedly plans IPO

According to insiders, the Chinese online fast fashion retailer Shein plans to go public on Wall Street. Reuters reported this, citing people familiar with the matter. Shein reportedly filed for an IPO in the United States and commissioned major US banks Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley as lead managers for the IPO. The Wall Street Journal initially reported on this. Both Shein and the banks declined to comment on the matter.

The insiders went on to say that it has not yet been decided what valuation the fashion retailer is aiming for for its debut. According to an earlier Bloomberg report, the company aims for a market capitalization of up to 90 billion dollars. In a two-billion-dollar financing round in spring, Shein was valued at more than 60 billion dollars. The company had already attempted an IPO in 2020, but then canceled it.

One insider claims that Shein is already discreetly presenting itself to potential US investors at events. However, it initially remained unclear whether the Group had applied to the Chinese stock exchange supervisory authority CSRC for approval for a US IPO. Companies from the People’s Republic are obliged to do so. The fashion group moved its headquarters to Singapore a few years ago, but still manufactures its products in China. The CSRC was initially unavailable for comment. rtr/cyb

  • CSRC
  • IPO

Heads

Hou Yu-ih – The KMT candidate prefers to listen

Hou Yu-ih is the mayor of Taipei and the KMT’s leading candidate in the January 2024 election.

Hou Yu-ih is firmly back in the race. After the controversy that prevented a joint opposition candidate from being nominated, he can once again run freely as the candidate for the National People’s Party (Kuomintang, KMT) without having to compromise with political rivals. In a recent opinion poll, he is only just behind William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with 31 percent approval (34 percent). This means that Hou currently has a reasonable chance of winning the presidency in January’s election.

Hou was born in Chiayi County in 1957. As a child, his parents sold pork at a local market, and he helped out by catching and butchering wild boar. In 1975, during Chiang Kai-shek’s authoritarian rule, young Hou joined the KMT.

Background in the security apparatus

Before embarking on his political career, however, he first made a career in the security apparatus. Hou studied at the Central Police University. He became Taipei’s chief of police during the KMT dictatorship. Since 2006, he has been in charge of Taiwan’s entire police force as Director of the National Police Agency.

Hou only entered politics in 2010, when he was appointed deputy mayor by the then-KMT-mayor of Taipei, Eric Chu. Hou then became mayor of Taipei himself in 2018 and was confirmed in office in 2022.

Until his presidential candidacy, Hou kept his distance from the party leadership. Although the KMT is generally considered closer to China, he has distanced himself more from China within the party. During his visit to the United States in September, he indicated that a strategy towards China should include deterrence as well as dialog and de-escalation.

In domestic policy, Hou, like his rival Ko Wen-je from the other opposition party TPP, attempts to portray problems such as high property prices, stagnating wages and the lack of prospects for young people in particular as failures of the government. Hou emphasizes at every opportunity that it is the majority’s will to vote out the DPP.

Hou acts strangely passive

Although Hou can currently mobilize the traditional KMT voter base, he does not appear particularly charismatic to the general population. Presumably, to compensate for this, the KMT chose Jaw Shaw-kong as its candidate for the vice presidency on Friday. Jaw produces radio and TV programs. He, too, is an old KMT veteran. He is considered a representative of pro-China circles in the party.

Besides charisma, 66-year-old Hou Yu-ih also lacks authority in his own party. When it comes to political direction, most in the KMT are still guided by former President Ma Ying-jeou or party leader Eric Chu. Hou hardly had a say in the dispute over the joint candidacy with Ko Wen-je. Commenting on his own role in the negotiations, he said: “I left that to Ko and Chu. I mainly listened.” A remarkable way to go about things when it comes to his aspirations to become president. Leonardo Pape

Executive Moves

Anja Ketels has been promoted to Managing Director at MFC – China Insights & Solutions. She has been the right-hand woman of company founder Marianne Friese for some time with the title of Senior Consultant.

Is something changing in your organization? Send a note for our personnel section to heads@table.media!

Dessert

The freezing cold makes your beak clatter! Winter has arrived in north-east China. Even though they are as white as snow, these endangered Oriental white storks prefer to stay warm. The wildlife sanctuary in Changchun, Jilin province, has temporarily sheltered the birds with heating and a great view of the winter wonderland. Eleven of the animals became stranded in Jilin in early November – the migratory birds had missed their departure. After a short warm-up break, they were brought to Tianjin and released into the wild so they could follow their friends.

China.Table editorial team

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    Changing the world order together with other emerging powers – with these unequivocal words, Chen Dingding described China’s goal yesterday at the Foreign Policy Forum hosted by the Koerber Foundation. Admittedly, this statement by the Professor of International Relations at Jinan University was more of a side note. But in fact, he had spoken the truth.

    Shifts in the global balance of power were a recurring theme at the event in Berlin. According to a survey by the Koerber Foundation, almost two-thirds of German citizens favor more economic independence from China. However, not everyone has the same understanding of these goals, writes Michael Radunski in his analysis. Clearly, the popular catchphrase “de-risking” is no substitute for a well-defined strategy and its consistent implementation.

    Christiane Kuehl’s outlook on China’s role at the upcoming climate conference COP28 is slightly more optimistic. Everyone knows that effective climate action is impossible without the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Fortunately, the days when China refused any climate cooperation are gone. She predicts that Beijing will negotiate hard on deadlines and finances. However, when it comes to the expansion of renewables in particular, China has long been a leading nation. COP28 kicks off on Thursday in Dubai.

    Your
    Carolyn Braun
    Image of Carolyn  Braun

    Feature

    Baerbock sees German foreign policy in a decisive phase

    Moderator Tina Hassel, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and Annalena Baerbock in Berlin on Tuesday at the Foreign Policy Forum.

    Annalena Baerbock left no doubt about the urgency of the matter. “We are in a decisive phase of German foreign policy,” said the German Foreign Minister at the opening of the Koerber Foundation’s Berlin Foreign Policy Forum 2023. Germany must now find its role and fulfill its responsibilities. “If we don’t occupy this space, other players will push their way into it.” And she made it clear: These countries want a different global community.

    Although Baerbock did not mention any names on this Tuesday morning in Berlin, the attending foreign policy experts certainly knew who she was referring to above all: China. While the United States has been shaping the global order to its own liking for decades and other players such as Russia have pushed themselves to the sidelines, the People’s Republic has massively increased its influence in recent years.

    China’s president has for some time now made no secret of his goals: Xi Jinping’s narrative is that the world is going through “changes the likes of which we haven’t seen in 100 years” (百年未有之大变局). These changes are supposed to lead China back to its rightful place: the top.

    ‘China wants to change the world order’

    Chen Dingding did not want to put it quite so bluntly at Tuesday’s Foreign Policy Forum. Instead, the Professor of International Relations at Jinan University emphasized China’s desire for stability under the UN Charter. He explained that Beijing wanted to use its growing influence to achieve growth and regional stability. China recently achieved this through mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    But then, on a side note, Chen inadvertently revealed: China and emerging countries seek to change the world order. After all, there is not one, but many different world orders, the Chinese foreign policy expert hastily added.

    Chinese expert stresses common values

    Chen must have immediately realized the impact this statement could have. And so he immediately tried to reassure the audience: “Our values are not completely different, there are definitely overlaps.” There would, of course, be differences and disputes from time to time.

    But the numbers don’t lie, said Chen: China and Germany have been each other’s most important trading partners for years. And in any event, why would China want to overthrow the world order when it is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the existing system, Chen asked rhetorically.

    Germans see China’s rise negative

    However, this perception is becoming less and less mutual. A growing number of Germans look at China with concern. Around 62 percent of Germans have a negative view of the People’s Republic’s growing influence. Only six percent still consider it positive. This is the result of the representative survey “The Berlin Pulse” conducted by the Koerber Foundation.

    In addition, most Germans share the goal of de-risking set out in the German government’s China strategy. Six out of ten Germans favor gaining greater economic independence from China – even if this could mean economic damage and lost jobs.

    German economy at risk

    Alicia García-Herrero from the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel is not surprised by these numbers. “Germans have always worried about their economy above all else. They used to say: China is the biggest sales market. Now they say: China is our competitor and rival,” she explained Tuesday.

    In her opinion, the Germans’ concerns are entirely warranted: The German economy is in danger, if only because of its export-focus structure. However, Germany and China are complementing each other less and less. Instead, mutual competition is increasing:

    • on the Chinese market because Chinese companies have stepped up production for the domestic market;
    • on markets outside the EU, where highly subsidized Chinese companies snatch customers away from German companies.

    What is de-risking?

    Consequently, de-risking seems to be the name of the game. However, this approach requires urgent substance. Should the entire economy be de-risked or only certain sectors? Full de-risking or just a few percentages? Chen Dingding’s words about numbers that don’t lie also carry a warning.

    China has, in fact, been Germany’s largest trading partner since 2016. Bilateral trade amounts to almost 300 billion euros. For some of the largest German companies, China is also the indispensable core market – for example, for the major car manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz or the chemical giant BASF.

    China has a plan – but does Germany?

    Accordingly, de-risking for Mercedes or BASF means more investment in China, not less. BASF CEO Martin Brudermuller justified this approach a few months ago by saying that “Asia Pacific will represent around 70 percent of the global chemical market with more than half of the global chemical industry sales and about three quarters of global chemical production growth coming from China alone” – and BASF wants to participate in this growth.

    This shows that the catchy catchphrase “de-risking” is no substitute for a plan. This also came up at the Koerber event in Berlin on Tuesday. Shamika Ravi from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council said that she was surprised during her talks in Germany that the country had no plan for China. “Because we can tell them one thing as a direct neighbor of the People’s Republic: China has a plan.”

    • Economy
    • Geopolitics
    • Trade
    • USA

    China’s strategy at COP28: Following the majority

    While China continues to expand renewables, it also remains loyal to coal: the Zhangye coal-fired power plant in Gansu province is currently undergoing expansion.

    Shortly before the start of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, all negotiators know that effective climate action is impossible without China. Even if the delegation from the People’s Republic will probably be a difficult discussion partner at the conference: The days of China refusing any climate cooperation are thankfully over.

    But China will push its own interests and hit the West where it hurts: money. Instead of leading the way, it will follow the majority. However, this also means that it will occasionally be open to compromise when it comes to issues that do not directly go against China’s interests.

    Continued self-image as an emerging country

    No other country invests more in renewables and builds more wind and solar power plants than China. Yet, Beijing continues to approve the construction of new coal-fired power plants. Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic output have been declining for years – but they continue to rise in absolute terms. China will remain the world’s largest emitter for the foreseeable future.

    In 2021, President Xi Jinping announced China’s first official climate targets at the United Nations. Beijing aims to

    • peak its carbon emissions “before 2030”,
    • and achieve net zero by 2060.

    Most developed countries aim to be climate-neutral by 2050. However, Beijing insists that, as an emerging economy, it needs more time for the transformation than the industrialized West. At COP28, the 200 parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change will discuss the current state of climate efforts, the so-called Global Stocktake. The intention is to derive new guidelines and more ambitious climate targets for individual countries from it. The pressure on China is also likely to increase.

    China and the US: key to COP28 success

    The quality of cooperation between China and the US is considered the key to successful climate conferences. The two superpowers made the Paris Agreement possible in the first place with a joint declaration in 2015. In 2021, both brought the stalled negotiations back on track at COP26 in Glasgow.

    At the time, both decided to set up a joint climate working group, and China agreed to finally draw up a methane strategy. Over a 100-year period, methane warms the earth around 30 times more than carbon dioxide. But none of this was implemented, as relations later plunged into a deep crisis.

    The emission superpowers talk to each other

    Only in recent weeks have there been signs of a thaw. In mid-November, the two climate envoys, John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, released the joint “Sunnyland Declaration.” It states that China and the USA will work towards tripling renewable energy capacities by 2030, which was set at the G20 summit in New Delhi. For the first time, China agreed to develop national climate targets for all sectors of the economy.

    Both also finally realized their 2021 plans: The climate working group is now being formed and China published its first methane strategy shortly after the summit. However, it did not include any concrete targets and can only be considered a start.

    ‘Return to the absolute minimum’

    Of course, it is positive that the USA and China are talking to each other again, says climate policy expert Nis Grünberg from the Merics Institute. “But in principle, the Sunnyland Declaration is just a return to the absolute minimum.” The vague wording of the declaration shows “that this is the lowest common denominator, a return to a difficult negotiating table,” Gruenberg told Table.Media. The geopolitical situation cannot simply be ignored, even when it comes to climate action. “We must accept that climate policy has become part of national interest and security policy.”

    The talks often prove difficult due to the hierarchical power structure in the People’s Republic. “Working-level Chinese negotiators are constrained by a narrow mandate,” writes Li Shuo, future director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

    In China’s system, “sticking to instructions” is more valued than “innovation, flexibility, and solution seeking.” However, Li says that apart from the sometimes harsh rhetoric, “Beijing has a track record of following the majority view and is reluctant to block consensus.”

    China expands renewables ahead of schedule

    China is already feeling the effects of the climate crisis. The climate in the already dry north is getting drier and drier; this year, a severe heatwave hit large parts of the country, accompanied by heavy rainfall events. This means Beijing is also making climate efforts in its own interests. Expanding renewables is easier for the government than phasing out coal.

    Xi Jinping wants to have 455 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity installed in the deserts of the north-west by 2030. By then, around 1,200 gigawatts of installed wind and solar power systems will generate electricity.

    Many experts believe China will probably reach the expansion target even earlier – as well as the goal of generating one-third of its electricity from renewables by 2025. A recent study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Helsinki concludes that China’s greenhouse gas emissions will likely enter a “structural decline” as early as 2024 – and not in 2030, as previously announced. This means that China is likely to be constructive on renewables at COP28.

    Touchy subject at COP28: the fossil fuel phase-out

    However, negotiations with China and other emerging economies regarding the fossil fuel phase-out will probably be challenging. It is expected to be a prominent issue at COP28. China rejects a pledge to phase out coal, as coal-fired power generation is considered a guarantee of energy security in difficult times. The coal lobby, which is dominated by state-owned companies, also remains strong. Xie Zhenhua has already called the fossil fuel phase-out “unrealistic.”

    But the People’s Republic is also pointing the finger at the West when it comes to fossil fuels, says Gruenberg. “Because we, too, are not doing enough to achieve the 1.5-degree target and are hesitating to phase out fossil fuels.” Beijing will always insist that each country is allowed to implement decarbonization based on its own national circumstances. “China says, ‘We will phase out as quickly as we can’.”

    Huge potential for financial disputes

    Many jobs in some provinces depend on coal. The country has significant excess power plant capacity and many outdated power stations, some of which are supposed to be replaced. Coal consumption is not expected to decline before 2030. China also struggles to reduce coal-based steel production. It would be a sensation if Beijing’s delegation were to make changes regarding fossil fuels.

    It would be equally surprising if China agreed to make a financial contribution to the compensation fund for loss and damage in poor countries decided at COP27 in Egypt. The People’s Republic has so far refused to do so – arguing that it is a developing country itself. The fund’s financing will be one of the controversial issues at COP28.

    • UNFCCC

    Sinolytics.Radar

    China is on its way to becoming the number one car exporter

    Dieser Inhalt ist Lizenznehmern unserer Vollversion vorbehalten.
    • Europe overtook Asia to become China’s largest EV export destination in 2021 and has continued to dominate the scene ever since. Nearly 45 percent of Chinese EVs shipped overseas went to Europe in 2023. Compared to other parts of the world, European countries’ stronger policy support for EVs, more sophisticated charging infrastructure and generally higher consumer acceptance have made the region a highly attractive market for Chinese EV manufacturers. ​
    • Within Europe, Belgium, the UK and Spain are the top 3 export destinations for Chinese EVs. Ports in Belgium and Spain are already facing capacity issues as they struggle to handle the large volumes of vehicles from China that are then sold to various countries in Europe. ​
    • European consumers are not only the biggest buyers of Chinese EVs, they also pay higher prices than in other countries and regions. The average export price of EVs shipped to Europe is around 30,000 US dollars (27,000 euros). The export price to Norway amounted to 39,000 US dollars (36,500 euros) and was therefore well above the average price of 24,000 US dollars (22,000 euros) of all EVs exported last year.
    • Despite the encouraging export data, Chinese brands face challenges on several fronts in the European market. Brand awareness for Chinese EVs in Europe is much lower than that of the regional champions and Tesla. MG has shaken up the market, but most European consumers perceive it as a British brand, even though it is now developed and produced by SAIC, China’s largest carmaker. As a result, no real Chinese brand has made it to the top sales list in Europe.​
    • Chinese EV manufacturers are struggling to navigate the growing compliance risks posed by requirements on data protection, carbon footprint and supply chain due diligence, as they brace for an ongoing anti-subsidy investigation and potential tariff hikes thereafter.​

    Sinolytics is a European research-based consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.

    • Autoindustrie
    • Elektromobilität
    • Europe
    • Export
    • Export

    News

    Dangerous situation on the border with Myanmar

    China has responded to heavy fighting between rebel groups and the ruling military junta with a military exercise lasting several days in the remote border region with Myanmar. Officially, Beijing speaks of a routine maneuver. However, during recent talks with high-ranking Myanmar officials, the country’s leadership expressed concern about security along the 2,100-kilometer border. In early November, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called on the military government in Naypyidaw to cooperate with China on border security. According to the provincial government of Yunnan, the maneuvers were to continue until Tuesday. On Tuesday, three Chinese navy ships also arrived in Myanmar for joint exercises.

    The situation in northern Myanmar is becoming increasingly volatile. In late October, three resistance groups launched a major offensive against the junta in the rugged mountain and forest regions of northern Myanmar. Since then, clashes have continued in the immediate vicinity of the border with China. For instance, at least ten refugees recently died in their vehicle during a rocket attack on the border town of Laukkai, for which the rebels and the military hold each other responsible. At the end of last week, 120 trucks arriving from China went up in flames in the town of Muse near a border crossing. The military recently lost control of the border crossing, as well as several towns and military outposts in the north-east of the country.

    Myanmar extradites Chinese criminals

    Beijing supports the military and supplies it with weapons, yet it also maintains decades-long relations with one of the rebel groups in the Shan State, whose members have Chinese roots.

    Chinese criminal gangs are also active in the embattled border region. According to Chinese state media, they operate around 1,000 centers there, where they force kidnapped prisoners to commit telephone fraud. The captives are then set up with fake online profiles to target their victims in China. The Chinese police have been cracking down on the gangs since September. As was revealed last week, Myanmar authorities have now extradited 31,000 suspects to China – including 63 financiers and ringleaders of crime syndicates who are believed to have scammed Chinese citizens out of large sums of money. In November, Beijing presented a draft decree aimed at toughening punishments for scam. ck/rtr

    • Geopolitics
    • Geopolitik
    • Myanmar

    Li for tighter supply chains and against decoupling

    China is stepping up its charm offensive to attract foreign investment. “We are willing to build closer production and industrial supply chain partnerships with all countries,” Li told the first China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE). This was reported by the South China Morning Post.

    It is no coincidence that the supply chain trade fair – the first of its kind – is being held at a time when Western economies increasingly rely on de-risking. Among the 550 exhibitors are 130 foreign companies, including companies such as Apple and Tesla. Li warned of “challenges and risks brought about by protectionism and uncontrolled globalization” and said China will continue to create an international business environment based on the rule of law.

    In the third quarter, foreign direct investment in China was net negative for the first time since 1998. In order to counter the mounting skepticism, the Chinese government has already presented a range of support measures. Jens Eskelund, President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said the fair was expected to give “a clearer position on how China sees its role in global supply chains, as well as how some of the pressing issues in trade and globalization can be addressed.” He also expects it to highlight the opportunities China can offer to strengthen global supply chains. cyb

    • Lieferketten

    First post-pandemic EU-China summit in Beijing

    The EU and China are in the final preparations for next week’s summit in Beijing. As the European External Action Service (EEAS) announced on Tuesday, the Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs at the EEAS, Enrique Mora, and China’s Vice Foreign Minister, Sun Weidong, exchanged views on several topics such as the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. At Monday’s meeting, the EU once again urged China to participate in a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine.

    The EU-China summit will be held next Thursday and Friday in Beijing. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel will meet China’s President Xi Jinping; Premier Li Qiang will then chair the actual summit alongside the EU representatives. The list of topics is long. It is very likely that Beijing will once again express its disapproval of the EU investigation into Chinese EVs.

    After several years of video links, the summit will now be held in person for the first time since 2019. In 2019, Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker still represented the EU. On the Chinese side, it was Premier Li Keqiang. Xi received Charles Michel in Beijing in December 2022. He last met von der Leyen in April, shortly after the EU Commission President gave a keynote speech on China. ari

    • EEAS
    • EU

    Lithuania: Trade dispute with China is over

    According to Lithuania’s foreign minister, the trade dispute between China and Lithuania has been resolved. After discussions and various diplomatic processes – some of which are still ongoing at the World Trade Organization (WTO) – “most of the economic pressure measures against Lithuania have been lifted,” Gabrielius Landsbergis told the Lithuanian news agency ELTA on Tuesday.

    Although trade has not been fully restored, the difference has been “more than compensated for” by trade with other Indo-Pacific states. “Businesses are not choosing China as a partner because of previous experiences,” said Landsbergis.

    The trade dispute between the EU state and China followed Beijing’s anger over a “Taiwan office” in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius. In December 2021, China imposed a de facto trade embargo on Lithuania because of the name of the new Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius. Chinese customs had rejected Lithuanian goods. Lithuania took the matter to the WTO.

    Landsbergis emphasized that the name of the office will not change. Most Taiwanese offices in European capitals bear the name “Taipei.” ari

    • Litauen

    Shein reportedly plans IPO

    According to insiders, the Chinese online fast fashion retailer Shein plans to go public on Wall Street. Reuters reported this, citing people familiar with the matter. Shein reportedly filed for an IPO in the United States and commissioned major US banks Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley as lead managers for the IPO. The Wall Street Journal initially reported on this. Both Shein and the banks declined to comment on the matter.

    The insiders went on to say that it has not yet been decided what valuation the fashion retailer is aiming for for its debut. According to an earlier Bloomberg report, the company aims for a market capitalization of up to 90 billion dollars. In a two-billion-dollar financing round in spring, Shein was valued at more than 60 billion dollars. The company had already attempted an IPO in 2020, but then canceled it.

    One insider claims that Shein is already discreetly presenting itself to potential US investors at events. However, it initially remained unclear whether the Group had applied to the Chinese stock exchange supervisory authority CSRC for approval for a US IPO. Companies from the People’s Republic are obliged to do so. The fashion group moved its headquarters to Singapore a few years ago, but still manufactures its products in China. The CSRC was initially unavailable for comment. rtr/cyb

    • CSRC
    • IPO

    Heads

    Hou Yu-ih – The KMT candidate prefers to listen

    Hou Yu-ih is the mayor of Taipei and the KMT’s leading candidate in the January 2024 election.

    Hou Yu-ih is firmly back in the race. After the controversy that prevented a joint opposition candidate from being nominated, he can once again run freely as the candidate for the National People’s Party (Kuomintang, KMT) without having to compromise with political rivals. In a recent opinion poll, he is only just behind William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with 31 percent approval (34 percent). This means that Hou currently has a reasonable chance of winning the presidency in January’s election.

    Hou was born in Chiayi County in 1957. As a child, his parents sold pork at a local market, and he helped out by catching and butchering wild boar. In 1975, during Chiang Kai-shek’s authoritarian rule, young Hou joined the KMT.

    Background in the security apparatus

    Before embarking on his political career, however, he first made a career in the security apparatus. Hou studied at the Central Police University. He became Taipei’s chief of police during the KMT dictatorship. Since 2006, he has been in charge of Taiwan’s entire police force as Director of the National Police Agency.

    Hou only entered politics in 2010, when he was appointed deputy mayor by the then-KMT-mayor of Taipei, Eric Chu. Hou then became mayor of Taipei himself in 2018 and was confirmed in office in 2022.

    Until his presidential candidacy, Hou kept his distance from the party leadership. Although the KMT is generally considered closer to China, he has distanced himself more from China within the party. During his visit to the United States in September, he indicated that a strategy towards China should include deterrence as well as dialog and de-escalation.

    In domestic policy, Hou, like his rival Ko Wen-je from the other opposition party TPP, attempts to portray problems such as high property prices, stagnating wages and the lack of prospects for young people in particular as failures of the government. Hou emphasizes at every opportunity that it is the majority’s will to vote out the DPP.

    Hou acts strangely passive

    Although Hou can currently mobilize the traditional KMT voter base, he does not appear particularly charismatic to the general population. Presumably, to compensate for this, the KMT chose Jaw Shaw-kong as its candidate for the vice presidency on Friday. Jaw produces radio and TV programs. He, too, is an old KMT veteran. He is considered a representative of pro-China circles in the party.

    Besides charisma, 66-year-old Hou Yu-ih also lacks authority in his own party. When it comes to political direction, most in the KMT are still guided by former President Ma Ying-jeou or party leader Eric Chu. Hou hardly had a say in the dispute over the joint candidacy with Ko Wen-je. Commenting on his own role in the negotiations, he said: “I left that to Ko and Chu. I mainly listened.” A remarkable way to go about things when it comes to his aspirations to become president. Leonardo Pape

    Executive Moves

    Anja Ketels has been promoted to Managing Director at MFC – China Insights & Solutions. She has been the right-hand woman of company founder Marianne Friese for some time with the title of Senior Consultant.

    Is something changing in your organization? Send a note for our personnel section to heads@table.media!

    Dessert

    The freezing cold makes your beak clatter! Winter has arrived in north-east China. Even though they are as white as snow, these endangered Oriental white storks prefer to stay warm. The wildlife sanctuary in Changchun, Jilin province, has temporarily sheltered the birds with heating and a great view of the winter wonderland. Eleven of the animals became stranded in Jilin in early November – the migratory birds had missed their departure. After a short warm-up break, they were brought to Tianjin and released into the wild so they could follow their friends.

    China.Table editorial team

    CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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