The meetings with high-ranking politicians, photo ops and a medal ceremony in Taipei were barely over when Nancy Pelosi boarded the plane again and left for Seoul. She leaves behind a troubled region. One consequence of her incisive visit: German Ambassador Patricia Flor was summoned to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The reason was Foreign Minister Baerbock’s support for Taiwan’s integrity amid rising tensions. Today, Marcel Grzanna analyzes why Beijing is using this harsh measure against Germany of all countries.
Beijing was extremely unhappy with Baerbock’s close association of the situation surrounding Taiwan with Ukraine. Ukraine is a diplomatically universally recognized country, according to Chinese perception, while Taiwan is an isolated territory. For Baerbock, on the other hand, the scenarios are similar: A superpower threatens its peaceful, smaller neighbor, with which it has a territorial dispute.
Of course, German foreign policy does not have to follow the Chinese line of thinking. But it is also striking how little dialogue the new German government has maintained with China so far. Of “partner and rival,” it is mostly rival. Even if personal visits by Scholz and Baerbock to Beijing are currently hard to arrange, now would be the time for a phase of intensive dialogue proposals to compensate for criticism, which may then be quite harsh.
Angela Stanzel of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs points out in an interview with Michael Radunski: Beijing’s sanctions are directed only against Taiwan and not against the USA. The People’s Liberation Army has wisely kept its distance from Pelosi’s plane, but now sanctions are being imposed on Taiwanese companies. A clever strategy. Instead of high-risk threats toward a superpower, Beijing is increasing the pressure on the island, which it considers its territory.
Another consequence of Pelosi’s visit: On Thursday, a Navy maneuver with live ammunition will start far too close to Taiwan’s coast. China also sanctions Taiwan’s economy with worrying consequences for supply chains. High-profile political observer Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy wrote down her assessment of the situation for us. The former advisor to the EU Parliament expects more visits to Taiwan by EU parliamentarians in the future to strengthen the island.
An 82-year-old woman is setting the world on edge. With a smile behind her face mask, Nancy Pelosi pointed out on Wednesday morning the imbalance with which the People’s Republic of China already reacted to the announcement of her visit to Taiwan. War, fire, death – the Chinese rhetorical arsenal knew practically no apocalyptic limit.
By contrast, when a handful of US senators and parliamentarians made two days of official appointments in the island nation in April, Beijing was much more restrained in its threatening gestures. Back then, “not so much of a fuss was made,” Pelosi said during a press conference alongside Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. Perhaps that is now the rationale for the massive threats, Pelosi speculated. “Because they didn’t say anything when the men came.” Laughter in the room.
But the humorous Pelosi was also able to be serious. She garnished her less than 24 hours short trip to Taiwan with numerous messages to the hosts, the world, and above all, the People’s Republic. She said that Beijing could make sure that Taiwan would not participate in international meetings of the international community. But she (Pelosi) hoped it had become clear through her visit that China could not stand in the way “of people coming to Taiwan”.
Verbally, she took numerous pinpricks against Beijing. She addressed Tsai Ing-wen as president and spoke of “our two countries” regarding US-Taiwan relations. Officially, Washington accepts the One China policy, which for Beijing underscores its own claim to Taiwan and is intended to eliminate Taiwan’s status as a separate country. Pelosi is not a representative of the US government. Nevertheless, she assured that her country, the United States, stands firmly by Taiwan’s side.
As far as the coming days are concerned, however, Taiwan is probably on its own for the time being. Around the island, the Chinese navy and air force will conduct six maneuvers till and including Sunday, deliberately violating Taiwanese airspace. There was a preview on Wednesday when 22 Chinese fighter jets briefly entered the airspace. In the coming days, soldiers from the People’s Republic will move within a few kilometers of the island’s coast, according to announcements.
If Beijing did not follow up its threats in the run-up to the visit with action, then the subsequent saber rattling is now apparently intended to provide the desired deterrence. It’s a tactic that has Taiwan on alert, despite its routine approach to dealing with Chinese aggression. “We as affected parties cannot afford to take something like this lightly,” says Shieh Jhy-Wey, official representative of the Taiwanese government in Germany, in an interview with China.Table.
“Our democracy is not negotiable,” Shieh stated. Pelosi’s visit was a milestone because it “articulated in the form of a precise act” the tacit agreement of the West and Taiwan, as well as Japan and South Korea, to defend democracy against China’s autocrats, Shieh said.
China should be aware that its own credibility has suffered and cannot be repaired so easily with a few maneuvers. This is especially true for their own country. Quite a few citizens assumed that their government was serious about threatening war.
To save face, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi unceremoniously postponed the consequences to the future. With a raised finger, the minister called Pelosi’s visit a farce in a CCTV interview and promised that China would punish all those who angered the country. This time, at least, Beijing failed to deliver.
Instead of deterring and forcing foreign countries to China’s course, Beijing’s brute diplomacy provokes a growing rejection of its methods. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock now takes almost every opportunity to point out to the Chinese government that the West will not accept aggression against Taiwan. Germany’s critical stance does not go unnoticed by China.
On Wednesday, Patricia Flor, the German ambassador in Beijing who has only been in office for a few weeks, was summoned by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Shortly after, the Foreign Office in Berlin published a statement in which Baerbock once again declared her support for the One-China policy. Before Pelosi’s visit, the US government had already made it clear that it was sticking to the One-China policy.
Beijing’s uncompromising stance is increasingly creating awareness in Germany that conflicts with China are unavoidable if it does not want to be forced into the role of the ridiculed yes-man in this relationship.“We cannot avoid conflict with China over key issues. Taiwan is one of these issues,” Juergen Hardt (CDU), foreign policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, told AFP. He said he had “nothing to criticize” about Pelosi’s trip.
Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, a former political advisor in the European Parliament, believes that the EU is also changing its mind (see today’s opinion piece). So far, she says, EU member states have not developed a common approach on how to proceed in the event of a future Taiwan conflict. “Nevertheless, member states agree that it is time for a change in Taiwan policy – because China has changed,” says Ferenczy, an Assistant Professor at Dong Hwa National University in Hualien, Taiwan. Under these circumstances, Brussels is closely following developments in Taiwan in the context of the Indo-Pacific region, partly because it has its own interests to protect in that area.
Speaking to the German Press Agency, EU parliamentarian Reinhard Buetikofer of the Green Party called for the EU to take an example from Pelosi. “We in Europe must also not watch with a shrug as the People’s Republic tries to accustom the world to the idea that a forced incorporation of Taiwan is inevitable,” Buetikofer said. To prevent an escalation over Taiwan, it was important not to give in to China’s increasingly intrusive foreign policy.
The People’s Republic believes that it can afford to invade Taiwan, primarily because of its increased economic importance. Taiwan is now supposed to feel the heat. In its rage over Pelosi’s trip, China’s government unceremoniously imposed import bans on citrus fruits and packaged fish from Taiwan on Wednesday. The flimsy reasons given by customs: registration deficiencies.
The military maneuver will also partially block the waters off Taiwan’s seaports for several days. Taiwan’s transport ministry has already sought alternative routes with Japan and the Philippines for the duration of the maneuvers. Taiwan also knows about its own aces up its sleeves. The country is an important supplier of semiconductors to the People’s Republic. As long as China is not in a position to supply itself with the necessary high technology without any loss of quality, Taipei could in turn damage the Chinese economy with an export ban on semiconductors.
Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi headed to South Korea in the afternoon.
Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan – despite serious concerns from the US government, while China threatened massively with military force. Did someone overshoot the mark?
No, I don’t see it that way. There is no ban on US politicians traveling to Taiwan. And this is not the first time that the Head of the US House of Representatives has made such a trip. What can be criticized is the timing that Pelosi chose for her trip.
In what way?
Xi Jinping is currently under enormous domestic pressure: The Chinese economy is growing only slowly, and in addition, Xi wants to begin a third term as president in the fall. So Pelosi could very well have chosen a different, better time, where she would not have triggered such a crisis.
I was not talking about Pelosi, but about China’s behavior: From the threat of military force to statements that China’s military should simply shoot down Nancy Pelosi’s plane.
That is indeed absolutely going too far. Without a doubt. However, it is also important to stress that the statement by the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times does not necessarily reflect the view of the government in Beijing. The Chinese leadership obviously does not want military escalation, let alone shooting down an American aircraft just like that.
How high is the risk of war over Taiwan?
First, unfortunately, it should be noted that the situation has deteriorated. China is massing troops and has announced military maneuvers. All of this is not good, of course. But I do not see the risk of war. Neither China nor America want that.
It just sounds very different from what you hear from Beijing at the moment.
True. But let us not look at words but acts. And these indicate that Beijing is speculating that reunification with Taiwan before 2049 can be achieved without a military invasion.
What do these acts look like?
Threats and intimidation remain the order of the day. Basically, Beijing wants to isolate Taiwan internationally. Cyberattacks are being carried out, misinformation is being spread, and economic dependence is being increased.
And yet the military is being gathered on the coast of Taiwan. Does that remain without consequences?
Hopefully. Because even if you don’t want war, the risk of an unintentional incident naturally increases enormously. One wrong decision, one shot fired by mistake, can set off a nasty spiral of violence. The risk of an unintentional military escalation has increased.
It is noteworthy: In the run-up to the visit, China’s threats were directed against Pelosi and the US. China’s “punishment” for the visit, on the other hand, is directed against Taiwan …
… exactly. This is typical Chinese behavior. Beijing always goes after the supposedly weakest player. It tries to make an example. This is also how China acts in Europe – against Sweden, Lithuania or Norway.
How serious are China’s punitive measures against Taiwan?
The economic pressure continues to grow. And that also has consequences for us. Sand is needed worldwide in the construction industry. In the semiconductor sector, Germany has just chosen Taiwan as the largest alternative semiconductor manufacturer for the German industry. If China’s leadership were to actually take action against Taiwan’s chip industry, this would have serious consequences for us and the global supply chains.
Considering all of this, I have to ask how reasonable Mrs. Pelosi’s visit was in the first place.
In Pelosi’s case, two levels are indeed mixed here. On the one hand, Taiwan has always been important to Pelosi. That should be acknowledged. On the other hand, it was also a PR show for Pelosi. The Democrats are under enormous pressure ahead of the midterm elections, and Pelosi’s own political future is more than uncertain. She also wants to leave a political mark.
So no more trips to Taiwan for politicians in the future?
No. Basically, such visits are sensible. They send a clear signal that the US remains firmly on Taiwan’s side. This visit also gave Taiwan a moral boost. It also shows other countries in Asia that they can rely on US support. And all of this is then, of course, also a signal to China.
What should be different next time, to avoid the trip degenerating into a PR show?
It would be more sensible to coordinate such visits with allies. It would have quite a different impact if European or German politicians also flew to Taiwan after the visit of US politicians.
Speaking of allies: Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and also the German Ambassador in Beijing, Patricia Flor, have very clearly taken Taiwan’s side. Is such a loud approach reasonable?
It is timely, because it is a reaction to China’s increasingly vocal behavior, even here in Europe, if I think of the example of Lithuania. Especially when it comes to Taiwan, the world is getting an increasingly clearer sense of China’s wolfish-warlike behavior.
Germany’s policy so far has been: if criticism, then not in public. Are these times over?
Yes, the time of quiet diplomacy with China is over. That has failed.
What consequences does this have for German-Chinese relations?
It is currently bad and will probably get worse. There are hardly any opportunities to have an open and constructive exchange at the moment. That is why I don’t think we’re putting too much at risk with this new behavior.
Time for a new Taiwan policy?
Not quite. Because Germany should make one point clear: Berlin is abiding by its agreements with Beijing and is clearly adhering to the red line of “One-China”. It is rather Beijing that has changed the status quo of Taiwan. Because this status quo implies that we have exchanges with Taiwan, including visits by politicians. This agreement with China once led to German Economics Minister Günter Rexrodt traveling to Taiwan in 1997. So there is a lot of room to intensify relations with Taiwan without crossing the agreed red line. China needs to be reminded of this.
So after Nancy Pelosi, Annalena Baerbock should travel to Taiwan?
Why not? It doesn’t have to be the Foreign Minister, of course, but we should step up exchanges with Taiwan again. This is not just about visits. A mutual investment agreement between Germany and Taiwan would be one option. And internationally, Taiwan must be brought out of isolation and integrated more into international organizations. Especially in times of a global Covid pandemic, we should give Taiwan observer status in the World Health Organization again.
Angela Stanzel is a China expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
Brussels is in the process of defining an upgrade in its own cooperation with Taiwan. As of yet, EU member states have no common vision on the way forward, or on the measures to take should there be a Taiwan contingency at any time in the future. Yet, there is a clear understanding shared by member states that it is time for a change, because China has changed. In this context, Brussels is following closely the developments in Taiwan in the context of the Indo-Pacific, also because it has acknowledged that it is an area where it has its own interests to protect. A disruption in the region would have serious consequences for Europe, this is explicitly in the EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy which is still to be implemented.
In this process, coordination with partners in the region will be key, which is the driving force of the Strategy itself. In this context, the EU High Representative joining the G7 foreign ministers’ statement issued the day of Pelosi’s visit on the need to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait and calling on the PRC not to unilaterally change the status quo indicates that going forward the EU will coordinate with its like-minded partners
The way in which Brussels might read dynamics in the Strait and respond, will also depend on China’s behavior and retaliation following Pelosi’s visit. The response is expected to include further economic coercion against Taiwan and large-scale military drills around it, as Beijing has already indicated. Concerning economic coercion, China has for years used both positive and economic statecraft in cross-strait relations. Through their asymmetric interdependence, with Taiwan far more dependent on China than the other way around, Beijing has built up leverage to pressure, intimidate and impose costs on Taiwan while seeking to alter the domestic political landscape. These efforts now have led to more backlash against Beijing than support for it inside Taiwan.
Projecting a strong image and using strong rhetoric is vital for the Chinese leader both in a domestic and international context. Disrupting the stability in the region, as fragile as it might already be, is not in Beijing’s interest. It is however in its own interest to project the image of a strong and resolute leader as he heads toward the Party Congress in the fall where he is widely anticipated to be reappointed for an unprecedented third term.
Change in Brussels’ thinking on Taiwan is already underway, moving from quiet conversations toward taking measures. In this sense, as a like-minded partner, Taiwan has already entered the political discourse in Brussels. At present, Brussels sees Taiwan through the lens of democracy as well as of trade and economic cooperation, less through the lens of security, hence the absence of a ‘Taiwan contingency’ discussion in Brussels. As such, the EU considers Taiwan a reliable and like-minded democracy in the Indo-Pacific, in sharp contrast with the People’s Republic of China, which for decades it has closely engaged as a strategic partner.
In 2019 Brussels labeled the PRC both a partner and a “systemic rival”, indicative of growing skepticism regarding the continuation of the ‘business-as-usual’ kind of cooperation with China. With Beijing displaying readiness to use economic coercion and disinformation at the expense of European interests, the shift in perceptions in Brussels should come as no surprise.
Seen in the current geopolitical context, a reversal of the existing dynamic concerning Taiwan on a European level looks more and more unlikely, a shift which, ironically, Beijing itself keeps greatly contributing to. While it remains within the EU’s own One China policy, this new dynamic on Taiwan is real and despite limitations, it does provide actual room for maneuver, which many inside Europe have failed to see. Communicating this both inside the EU and Taiwan will be important, and a joint responsibility as both sides will need to manage expectations at home.
A newfound awareness of Taiwan’s importance across the EU has come through via statements, reports and resolutions, but also European and national parliamentary visits, and an upgrade in bilateral trade dialogues with the European Commission. These are all unprecedented activities from a bloc most often seen as divided and incoherent on China, and cautious when it comes to Taiwan. Seen in the European context, these activities set a precedent for the future of EU-Taiwan cooperation
EU member states are now working on reducing their strategic dependencies on both China and Russia, and reinforcing their economic and political resilience. This has further elevated Taiwan’s relevance in Brussels’s geostrategic efforts, which in my view is precisely why the momentum in EU-Taiwan will continue. The fact that the EP sent a delegation of its special committee focusing on disinformation to Taiwan in November 2021 was no coincidence; both Taiwan and EU have been victims of China’s influence operations and disinformation campaigns, and both have things to learn from each other.
Beijing’s efforts to undermine democracy with disinformation throughout the pandemic damaged itself and its ties with the EU, and ironically helped bring Taiwan closer to the EU. In this light, I expect support from the EU, in particular, the European Parliament to continue and intensify. I also expect some member states, such as Lithuania, Czechia, and Slovakia to continue leading the way, but I also believe countries such as Germany will not lose sight of Taiwan’s relevance in their efforts to reduce their strategic dependencies on China.
National parliamentary visits are in fact becoming the new normal, notwithstanding the diversity of views within member states which Taiwan-friendly governments will have to balance against fears of Chinese retaliation, as they push for closer cooperation with Taiwan. Based on recent experience, visits from the EP will carry on, seeking concrete ways of cooperation in trade, and more exchanges in the fields of science, research, culture and education. Given that the EU is the largest investor in Taiwan, EU member states seem to have understood that any disruption in the Strait would undermine their interests. In what ways they would actually defend these interests is however to be seen; it is a matter of military capabilities and political will to act.
A kinetic clash in the Strait is in no one’s interest, not in Beijing’s, not in Washington’s and certainly not in Taiwan’s. Beijing sees stability in the region as indispensable to the pursuit of its development trajectory, to be able to assert its power at home and project its influence abroad. In fact, Beijing wants stability in its ties with the EU also; access to European markets for China is vital, so seeking to further undermine bilateral ties is not what Beijing wants.
Protecting the Party’s legitimacy is a major priority that requires a tough but sensible reaction under the current circumstances. Beijing’s use of hostile rhetoric, economic coercion, threats and retaliation as well as military provocations against Taiwan have already intensified, meant to both punish Taiwan and strengthen its domestic base. I expect Beijing to double down on these efforts in the coming weeks and seek to project the image of a strong China that won’t be bullied by Washington. Strong domestic support will remain vital for Beijing in its pursuit of its global agenda
Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy is an Assistant Professor at National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan, and a former political advisor in the European Parliament.
The “Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon” is awarded by Taiwan to people who have rendered outstanding services to the country. This order has only been awarded 21 times since 1941. Nancy Pelosi has now been awarded this great honor. She received the highest civilian honor in the country during her sensational visit to Taiwan. To “one of the most loyal friends,” Tsai Ing-wen said. Pelosi plans to display the award in the Speaker’s Office. “Or wear it there,” the 82-year-old jokes.
The meetings with high-ranking politicians, photo ops and a medal ceremony in Taipei were barely over when Nancy Pelosi boarded the plane again and left for Seoul. She leaves behind a troubled region. One consequence of her incisive visit: German Ambassador Patricia Flor was summoned to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The reason was Foreign Minister Baerbock’s support for Taiwan’s integrity amid rising tensions. Today, Marcel Grzanna analyzes why Beijing is using this harsh measure against Germany of all countries.
Beijing was extremely unhappy with Baerbock’s close association of the situation surrounding Taiwan with Ukraine. Ukraine is a diplomatically universally recognized country, according to Chinese perception, while Taiwan is an isolated territory. For Baerbock, on the other hand, the scenarios are similar: A superpower threatens its peaceful, smaller neighbor, with which it has a territorial dispute.
Of course, German foreign policy does not have to follow the Chinese line of thinking. But it is also striking how little dialogue the new German government has maintained with China so far. Of “partner and rival,” it is mostly rival. Even if personal visits by Scholz and Baerbock to Beijing are currently hard to arrange, now would be the time for a phase of intensive dialogue proposals to compensate for criticism, which may then be quite harsh.
Angela Stanzel of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs points out in an interview with Michael Radunski: Beijing’s sanctions are directed only against Taiwan and not against the USA. The People’s Liberation Army has wisely kept its distance from Pelosi’s plane, but now sanctions are being imposed on Taiwanese companies. A clever strategy. Instead of high-risk threats toward a superpower, Beijing is increasing the pressure on the island, which it considers its territory.
Another consequence of Pelosi’s visit: On Thursday, a Navy maneuver with live ammunition will start far too close to Taiwan’s coast. China also sanctions Taiwan’s economy with worrying consequences for supply chains. High-profile political observer Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy wrote down her assessment of the situation for us. The former advisor to the EU Parliament expects more visits to Taiwan by EU parliamentarians in the future to strengthen the island.
An 82-year-old woman is setting the world on edge. With a smile behind her face mask, Nancy Pelosi pointed out on Wednesday morning the imbalance with which the People’s Republic of China already reacted to the announcement of her visit to Taiwan. War, fire, death – the Chinese rhetorical arsenal knew practically no apocalyptic limit.
By contrast, when a handful of US senators and parliamentarians made two days of official appointments in the island nation in April, Beijing was much more restrained in its threatening gestures. Back then, “not so much of a fuss was made,” Pelosi said during a press conference alongside Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. Perhaps that is now the rationale for the massive threats, Pelosi speculated. “Because they didn’t say anything when the men came.” Laughter in the room.
But the humorous Pelosi was also able to be serious. She garnished her less than 24 hours short trip to Taiwan with numerous messages to the hosts, the world, and above all, the People’s Republic. She said that Beijing could make sure that Taiwan would not participate in international meetings of the international community. But she (Pelosi) hoped it had become clear through her visit that China could not stand in the way “of people coming to Taiwan”.
Verbally, she took numerous pinpricks against Beijing. She addressed Tsai Ing-wen as president and spoke of “our two countries” regarding US-Taiwan relations. Officially, Washington accepts the One China policy, which for Beijing underscores its own claim to Taiwan and is intended to eliminate Taiwan’s status as a separate country. Pelosi is not a representative of the US government. Nevertheless, she assured that her country, the United States, stands firmly by Taiwan’s side.
As far as the coming days are concerned, however, Taiwan is probably on its own for the time being. Around the island, the Chinese navy and air force will conduct six maneuvers till and including Sunday, deliberately violating Taiwanese airspace. There was a preview on Wednesday when 22 Chinese fighter jets briefly entered the airspace. In the coming days, soldiers from the People’s Republic will move within a few kilometers of the island’s coast, according to announcements.
If Beijing did not follow up its threats in the run-up to the visit with action, then the subsequent saber rattling is now apparently intended to provide the desired deterrence. It’s a tactic that has Taiwan on alert, despite its routine approach to dealing with Chinese aggression. “We as affected parties cannot afford to take something like this lightly,” says Shieh Jhy-Wey, official representative of the Taiwanese government in Germany, in an interview with China.Table.
“Our democracy is not negotiable,” Shieh stated. Pelosi’s visit was a milestone because it “articulated in the form of a precise act” the tacit agreement of the West and Taiwan, as well as Japan and South Korea, to defend democracy against China’s autocrats, Shieh said.
China should be aware that its own credibility has suffered and cannot be repaired so easily with a few maneuvers. This is especially true for their own country. Quite a few citizens assumed that their government was serious about threatening war.
To save face, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi unceremoniously postponed the consequences to the future. With a raised finger, the minister called Pelosi’s visit a farce in a CCTV interview and promised that China would punish all those who angered the country. This time, at least, Beijing failed to deliver.
Instead of deterring and forcing foreign countries to China’s course, Beijing’s brute diplomacy provokes a growing rejection of its methods. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock now takes almost every opportunity to point out to the Chinese government that the West will not accept aggression against Taiwan. Germany’s critical stance does not go unnoticed by China.
On Wednesday, Patricia Flor, the German ambassador in Beijing who has only been in office for a few weeks, was summoned by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Shortly after, the Foreign Office in Berlin published a statement in which Baerbock once again declared her support for the One-China policy. Before Pelosi’s visit, the US government had already made it clear that it was sticking to the One-China policy.
Beijing’s uncompromising stance is increasingly creating awareness in Germany that conflicts with China are unavoidable if it does not want to be forced into the role of the ridiculed yes-man in this relationship.“We cannot avoid conflict with China over key issues. Taiwan is one of these issues,” Juergen Hardt (CDU), foreign policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, told AFP. He said he had “nothing to criticize” about Pelosi’s trip.
Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, a former political advisor in the European Parliament, believes that the EU is also changing its mind (see today’s opinion piece). So far, she says, EU member states have not developed a common approach on how to proceed in the event of a future Taiwan conflict. “Nevertheless, member states agree that it is time for a change in Taiwan policy – because China has changed,” says Ferenczy, an Assistant Professor at Dong Hwa National University in Hualien, Taiwan. Under these circumstances, Brussels is closely following developments in Taiwan in the context of the Indo-Pacific region, partly because it has its own interests to protect in that area.
Speaking to the German Press Agency, EU parliamentarian Reinhard Buetikofer of the Green Party called for the EU to take an example from Pelosi. “We in Europe must also not watch with a shrug as the People’s Republic tries to accustom the world to the idea that a forced incorporation of Taiwan is inevitable,” Buetikofer said. To prevent an escalation over Taiwan, it was important not to give in to China’s increasingly intrusive foreign policy.
The People’s Republic believes that it can afford to invade Taiwan, primarily because of its increased economic importance. Taiwan is now supposed to feel the heat. In its rage over Pelosi’s trip, China’s government unceremoniously imposed import bans on citrus fruits and packaged fish from Taiwan on Wednesday. The flimsy reasons given by customs: registration deficiencies.
The military maneuver will also partially block the waters off Taiwan’s seaports for several days. Taiwan’s transport ministry has already sought alternative routes with Japan and the Philippines for the duration of the maneuvers. Taiwan also knows about its own aces up its sleeves. The country is an important supplier of semiconductors to the People’s Republic. As long as China is not in a position to supply itself with the necessary high technology without any loss of quality, Taipei could in turn damage the Chinese economy with an export ban on semiconductors.
Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi headed to South Korea in the afternoon.
Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan – despite serious concerns from the US government, while China threatened massively with military force. Did someone overshoot the mark?
No, I don’t see it that way. There is no ban on US politicians traveling to Taiwan. And this is not the first time that the Head of the US House of Representatives has made such a trip. What can be criticized is the timing that Pelosi chose for her trip.
In what way?
Xi Jinping is currently under enormous domestic pressure: The Chinese economy is growing only slowly, and in addition, Xi wants to begin a third term as president in the fall. So Pelosi could very well have chosen a different, better time, where she would not have triggered such a crisis.
I was not talking about Pelosi, but about China’s behavior: From the threat of military force to statements that China’s military should simply shoot down Nancy Pelosi’s plane.
That is indeed absolutely going too far. Without a doubt. However, it is also important to stress that the statement by the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times does not necessarily reflect the view of the government in Beijing. The Chinese leadership obviously does not want military escalation, let alone shooting down an American aircraft just like that.
How high is the risk of war over Taiwan?
First, unfortunately, it should be noted that the situation has deteriorated. China is massing troops and has announced military maneuvers. All of this is not good, of course. But I do not see the risk of war. Neither China nor America want that.
It just sounds very different from what you hear from Beijing at the moment.
True. But let us not look at words but acts. And these indicate that Beijing is speculating that reunification with Taiwan before 2049 can be achieved without a military invasion.
What do these acts look like?
Threats and intimidation remain the order of the day. Basically, Beijing wants to isolate Taiwan internationally. Cyberattacks are being carried out, misinformation is being spread, and economic dependence is being increased.
And yet the military is being gathered on the coast of Taiwan. Does that remain without consequences?
Hopefully. Because even if you don’t want war, the risk of an unintentional incident naturally increases enormously. One wrong decision, one shot fired by mistake, can set off a nasty spiral of violence. The risk of an unintentional military escalation has increased.
It is noteworthy: In the run-up to the visit, China’s threats were directed against Pelosi and the US. China’s “punishment” for the visit, on the other hand, is directed against Taiwan …
… exactly. This is typical Chinese behavior. Beijing always goes after the supposedly weakest player. It tries to make an example. This is also how China acts in Europe – against Sweden, Lithuania or Norway.
How serious are China’s punitive measures against Taiwan?
The economic pressure continues to grow. And that also has consequences for us. Sand is needed worldwide in the construction industry. In the semiconductor sector, Germany has just chosen Taiwan as the largest alternative semiconductor manufacturer for the German industry. If China’s leadership were to actually take action against Taiwan’s chip industry, this would have serious consequences for us and the global supply chains.
Considering all of this, I have to ask how reasonable Mrs. Pelosi’s visit was in the first place.
In Pelosi’s case, two levels are indeed mixed here. On the one hand, Taiwan has always been important to Pelosi. That should be acknowledged. On the other hand, it was also a PR show for Pelosi. The Democrats are under enormous pressure ahead of the midterm elections, and Pelosi’s own political future is more than uncertain. She also wants to leave a political mark.
So no more trips to Taiwan for politicians in the future?
No. Basically, such visits are sensible. They send a clear signal that the US remains firmly on Taiwan’s side. This visit also gave Taiwan a moral boost. It also shows other countries in Asia that they can rely on US support. And all of this is then, of course, also a signal to China.
What should be different next time, to avoid the trip degenerating into a PR show?
It would be more sensible to coordinate such visits with allies. It would have quite a different impact if European or German politicians also flew to Taiwan after the visit of US politicians.
Speaking of allies: Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and also the German Ambassador in Beijing, Patricia Flor, have very clearly taken Taiwan’s side. Is such a loud approach reasonable?
It is timely, because it is a reaction to China’s increasingly vocal behavior, even here in Europe, if I think of the example of Lithuania. Especially when it comes to Taiwan, the world is getting an increasingly clearer sense of China’s wolfish-warlike behavior.
Germany’s policy so far has been: if criticism, then not in public. Are these times over?
Yes, the time of quiet diplomacy with China is over. That has failed.
What consequences does this have for German-Chinese relations?
It is currently bad and will probably get worse. There are hardly any opportunities to have an open and constructive exchange at the moment. That is why I don’t think we’re putting too much at risk with this new behavior.
Time for a new Taiwan policy?
Not quite. Because Germany should make one point clear: Berlin is abiding by its agreements with Beijing and is clearly adhering to the red line of “One-China”. It is rather Beijing that has changed the status quo of Taiwan. Because this status quo implies that we have exchanges with Taiwan, including visits by politicians. This agreement with China once led to German Economics Minister Günter Rexrodt traveling to Taiwan in 1997. So there is a lot of room to intensify relations with Taiwan without crossing the agreed red line. China needs to be reminded of this.
So after Nancy Pelosi, Annalena Baerbock should travel to Taiwan?
Why not? It doesn’t have to be the Foreign Minister, of course, but we should step up exchanges with Taiwan again. This is not just about visits. A mutual investment agreement between Germany and Taiwan would be one option. And internationally, Taiwan must be brought out of isolation and integrated more into international organizations. Especially in times of a global Covid pandemic, we should give Taiwan observer status in the World Health Organization again.
Angela Stanzel is a China expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
Brussels is in the process of defining an upgrade in its own cooperation with Taiwan. As of yet, EU member states have no common vision on the way forward, or on the measures to take should there be a Taiwan contingency at any time in the future. Yet, there is a clear understanding shared by member states that it is time for a change, because China has changed. In this context, Brussels is following closely the developments in Taiwan in the context of the Indo-Pacific, also because it has acknowledged that it is an area where it has its own interests to protect. A disruption in the region would have serious consequences for Europe, this is explicitly in the EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy which is still to be implemented.
In this process, coordination with partners in the region will be key, which is the driving force of the Strategy itself. In this context, the EU High Representative joining the G7 foreign ministers’ statement issued the day of Pelosi’s visit on the need to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait and calling on the PRC not to unilaterally change the status quo indicates that going forward the EU will coordinate with its like-minded partners
The way in which Brussels might read dynamics in the Strait and respond, will also depend on China’s behavior and retaliation following Pelosi’s visit. The response is expected to include further economic coercion against Taiwan and large-scale military drills around it, as Beijing has already indicated. Concerning economic coercion, China has for years used both positive and economic statecraft in cross-strait relations. Through their asymmetric interdependence, with Taiwan far more dependent on China than the other way around, Beijing has built up leverage to pressure, intimidate and impose costs on Taiwan while seeking to alter the domestic political landscape. These efforts now have led to more backlash against Beijing than support for it inside Taiwan.
Projecting a strong image and using strong rhetoric is vital for the Chinese leader both in a domestic and international context. Disrupting the stability in the region, as fragile as it might already be, is not in Beijing’s interest. It is however in its own interest to project the image of a strong and resolute leader as he heads toward the Party Congress in the fall where he is widely anticipated to be reappointed for an unprecedented third term.
Change in Brussels’ thinking on Taiwan is already underway, moving from quiet conversations toward taking measures. In this sense, as a like-minded partner, Taiwan has already entered the political discourse in Brussels. At present, Brussels sees Taiwan through the lens of democracy as well as of trade and economic cooperation, less through the lens of security, hence the absence of a ‘Taiwan contingency’ discussion in Brussels. As such, the EU considers Taiwan a reliable and like-minded democracy in the Indo-Pacific, in sharp contrast with the People’s Republic of China, which for decades it has closely engaged as a strategic partner.
In 2019 Brussels labeled the PRC both a partner and a “systemic rival”, indicative of growing skepticism regarding the continuation of the ‘business-as-usual’ kind of cooperation with China. With Beijing displaying readiness to use economic coercion and disinformation at the expense of European interests, the shift in perceptions in Brussels should come as no surprise.
Seen in the current geopolitical context, a reversal of the existing dynamic concerning Taiwan on a European level looks more and more unlikely, a shift which, ironically, Beijing itself keeps greatly contributing to. While it remains within the EU’s own One China policy, this new dynamic on Taiwan is real and despite limitations, it does provide actual room for maneuver, which many inside Europe have failed to see. Communicating this both inside the EU and Taiwan will be important, and a joint responsibility as both sides will need to manage expectations at home.
A newfound awareness of Taiwan’s importance across the EU has come through via statements, reports and resolutions, but also European and national parliamentary visits, and an upgrade in bilateral trade dialogues with the European Commission. These are all unprecedented activities from a bloc most often seen as divided and incoherent on China, and cautious when it comes to Taiwan. Seen in the European context, these activities set a precedent for the future of EU-Taiwan cooperation
EU member states are now working on reducing their strategic dependencies on both China and Russia, and reinforcing their economic and political resilience. This has further elevated Taiwan’s relevance in Brussels’s geostrategic efforts, which in my view is precisely why the momentum in EU-Taiwan will continue. The fact that the EP sent a delegation of its special committee focusing on disinformation to Taiwan in November 2021 was no coincidence; both Taiwan and EU have been victims of China’s influence operations and disinformation campaigns, and both have things to learn from each other.
Beijing’s efforts to undermine democracy with disinformation throughout the pandemic damaged itself and its ties with the EU, and ironically helped bring Taiwan closer to the EU. In this light, I expect support from the EU, in particular, the European Parliament to continue and intensify. I also expect some member states, such as Lithuania, Czechia, and Slovakia to continue leading the way, but I also believe countries such as Germany will not lose sight of Taiwan’s relevance in their efforts to reduce their strategic dependencies on China.
National parliamentary visits are in fact becoming the new normal, notwithstanding the diversity of views within member states which Taiwan-friendly governments will have to balance against fears of Chinese retaliation, as they push for closer cooperation with Taiwan. Based on recent experience, visits from the EP will carry on, seeking concrete ways of cooperation in trade, and more exchanges in the fields of science, research, culture and education. Given that the EU is the largest investor in Taiwan, EU member states seem to have understood that any disruption in the Strait would undermine their interests. In what ways they would actually defend these interests is however to be seen; it is a matter of military capabilities and political will to act.
A kinetic clash in the Strait is in no one’s interest, not in Beijing’s, not in Washington’s and certainly not in Taiwan’s. Beijing sees stability in the region as indispensable to the pursuit of its development trajectory, to be able to assert its power at home and project its influence abroad. In fact, Beijing wants stability in its ties with the EU also; access to European markets for China is vital, so seeking to further undermine bilateral ties is not what Beijing wants.
Protecting the Party’s legitimacy is a major priority that requires a tough but sensible reaction under the current circumstances. Beijing’s use of hostile rhetoric, economic coercion, threats and retaliation as well as military provocations against Taiwan have already intensified, meant to both punish Taiwan and strengthen its domestic base. I expect Beijing to double down on these efforts in the coming weeks and seek to project the image of a strong China that won’t be bullied by Washington. Strong domestic support will remain vital for Beijing in its pursuit of its global agenda
Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy is an Assistant Professor at National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan, and a former political advisor in the European Parliament.
The “Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon” is awarded by Taiwan to people who have rendered outstanding services to the country. This order has only been awarded 21 times since 1941. Nancy Pelosi has now been awarded this great honor. She received the highest civilian honor in the country during her sensational visit to Taiwan. To “one of the most loyal friends,” Tsai Ing-wen said. Pelosi plans to display the award in the Speaker’s Office. “Or wear it there,” the 82-year-old jokes.
