The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on April 26, 1986, continues to have repercussions to this day, and Russia’s war against Ukraine is bringing new nuclear dangers to Ukraine and beyond. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine is preventing necessary work on the reactor’s containment structure itself. At the same time, it is increasing the risk to other nuclear facilities in the country should they be deliberately or accidentally targeted by fire or if, for example, critical cooling systems fail. Yet even without major incidents, a slight increase in radioactivity in the air across Europe is to be expected – even if the radiation levels remain below the natural background levels found in our region.
To secure the damaged reactor, the world’s largest movable structure (New Safe Confinement) was built at a cost of EUR 2.1 billion as a protective shell and officially put into operation in 2019. Today, this structure has been severely damaged by Russian drones and can no longer perform key safety functions. So far, however, no radioactivity has been released. Repair costs are currently conservatively estimated at more than EUR 100 million.
Another problem is the disappearance of radioactive sources. As a result of the war of aggression, in Ukraine many of the over 8,000 radioactive sources have disappeared or been destroyed. Exact figures are available only for the Chernobyl site, where 133 sources were stolen from environmental laboratories. However, sources used in industrial and scientific settings – to calibrate radiation detectors, monitor industrial facilities, or in medical institutions, for example – are no longer under control either as a result of the war.
Normally, such sources are encapsulated, securely enclosed, and well shielded. Improper handling or damage can pose a significant danger. With the destruction of industrial complexes by Russian troops, it is highly likely that many of the radiation sources installed there have been damaged. The fate of the sources from Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Rodynske in the Donbas is unknown.
Such radiation sources were used at the Azovstal and Illicha metallurgical plants in Mariupol. There are already reports of elevated radiation levels in the surrounding area and in the local seaport area, which can be attributed to damage to such sources. Reliable and trustworthy information from the occupied territories is not available. However, it has become known, for example, that people were exposed to so much radiation from a damaged cobalt-60 source that they developed leukemia. These are observations by the renowned Ukrainian scientist Dimitry Bazyka (Managing Director at the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine). More detailed investigations, such as those conducted in peacetime, are currently not possible. It is striking, however, that four years after the outbreak of war, cases of leukemia have increased in parts of Ukraine. Uncontrolled, stray radiation sources pose a danger and could theoretically gain significance in a terrorist context.
To this day, the consequences of the 1986 disaster are still felt in Germany, notably in the form of radioactive contamination of mushrooms and wild boars. The question is now frequently asked: Can radioactivity still reach Germany from Ukraine today? If so, under what scenarios?
Forest fires in contaminated areas play a significant role. They stir up radioactivity and transport it through the atmosphere. This has occurred regularly over the past decades. Today, however, firefighting efforts are being hampered by landmines laid by Russian troops. We must therefore expect increased atmospheric dispersion. This can be measured even from Germany using highly sensitive physical detection methods that detect just a few atoms per cubic meter of air, although it poses no health risks here, as it is far below the level of natural radioactivity.
Further damage to the damaged reactor would indeed have exclusively local effects in Ukraine. However, the situation is different for nuclear power plants currently in operation – Zaporizhzhya, South Ukraine, Rivne, and Khmelnytskyi. Ukraine has 15 pressurized water reactors (of Russian design, but similar to Western reactors), six of which are shut down in Zaporizhzhya. The remaining nine cover half of the country’s electricity consumption. These, too, have come under fire in the recent past. In the event of severe damage, contamination could spread over hundreds of kilometers from these plants.
Norbert Zoubek is the press spokesperson for the Professional Association for Radiation Protection. The graduate physicist earned his doctorate in the field of accelerator physics.
Opinion pieces reflect the views of their authors and do not necessarily represent those of the editorial team.