Happy New Year! As we usher in 2024, it’s with great excitement that we present the 600th issue of Europe.Table. This milestone fills us with immense pride, and we hope you’ll continue to join us on this journey, perhaps even sharing our insights with friends and colleagues.
As we bid farewell to 2023, we reflect on the passing of two influential figures in European politics: Wolfgang Schäuble and Jacques Delors, each leaving an indelible mark in their distinct capacities.
Wolfgang Schäuble’s departure is mourned across Germany and Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission President, expressed her condolences via X, recognizing Schäuble as a pillar of German democracy. His vision and leadership have profoundly shaped our political landscape.
The legacy of Jacques Delors, another titan of European unity, is equally significant. Von der Leyen celebrated his contributions, noting how his tenure as the head of the EU Commission fostered cooperation and a European identity. Delors’ vision for a unified, just, and prosperous Europe continues to influence us profoundly.
As we move forward, Belgium assumes the Council Presidency, undertaking the critical task of shaping key legislations like the AI Act before the next European elections in June. The road ahead is filled with opportunities and challenges, and 2024 promises to be a year of dynamic progress for Europe. Let’s embrace this journey together, carrying the legacies of our past leaders as beacons for the future.
Who will be what? The poker game for the top jobs that will be filled after the European elections at the beginning of June has begun. The central question is the name of the Commission President for the 2024 to 2029 term. The first candidate is Ursula von der Leyen. The President of the Commission, who has been in office since 2019, has announced that she will make her decision public at the beginning of the year as to whether she will run again.
There are many indications of this. For example, that she has cleared up points of conflict with her Christian Democrat party family. EPP party and parliamentary group leader Manfred Weber also assumes that von der Leyen will be available when the Christian Democratic party family meets in Bucharest on March 6 and 7 to select the lead candidate for the European elections.
The deadline for the Socialists to nominate their lead candidates is Jan. 7. Luxembourg’s Commissioner for Social Affairs, Nicolas Schmit, and Katarina Barley, Vice-President of the European Parliament, are considered contenders.
The Green party family will select two top candidates at its congress on Feb. 2 in Lyon. Group leader Terry Reintke and her deputy Baas Eickhout will likely win the race.
The Liberals did not support the top candidate principle in 2019. Whether and who they nominate as lead candidate is likely to be discussed at a high-level meeting of the party family in Brussels on Jan. 8.
Von der Leyen would have a good chance of winning a second mandate. The EPP is likely to become the strongest parliamentary group again in the European elections. Von der Leyen is expected to have a strong term in office. There is no candidate from the other party families who could pose a threat to her. She would probably have the support of Berlin and Paris and therefore the two largest member states behind her.
However, the German would have to fight for majorities both among the heads of state and government and in the European Parliament. This scenario presupposes that the Christian Democrat (EPP), Socialist (PES) and Liberal (Renew) party families would once again form an informal alliance to support von der Leyen. It cannot be ruled out that the Greens (European Greens) will join, and that Italy’s head of government Georgia Meloni, as leader of the Conservatives (ECR), will get involved and derive demands from this.
If the job at the head of the Commission were to go to the EPP again, the Socialists and Liberals, as further members of the informal Von der Leyen coalition, would lay claim to the positions of Council President and Foreign Affairs Commissioner. The post of President of Parliament in both the first and second half of the parliamentary term is part of the extended personnel package. No one has yet been appointed to succeed Charles Michel at the head of the Council or Josep Borrell as Foreign Affairs Commissioner.
The Eastern Europeans are expressing their wishes after being left empty-handed in this mandate. Former ECB President Mario Draghi is also said to be interested, and Meloni could bring him into play as Council President despite his advanced age of 76. Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon could be in the running if the “EU Foreign Minister” were to go to the Socialists.
Behind the scenes, it is said that France’s Emmanuel Macron is claiming more than the leadership of the European Central Bank (ECB) for his country. The mandate of current President Christine Lagarde runs until 2027. Among the heads of state and government, Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Greece) and Pedro Sánchez (Spain) are said to be interested in moving to Brussels.
In Parliament, the Socialists and Christian Democrats are likely to wrestle over which party will be allowed to appoint the president first. Incumbent Roberta Metsola from Malta would like to serve a second term. The Christian Democrat has received good marks from all parties for her first term in office. Among the Socialists, Iratxe García Pérez has ambitions for the post. She has been leader of the parliamentary group since 2019, but has also been criticized internally for speaking poor English and cutting a rather weak political figure.
Manfred Weber (CSU) has headed the EPP Group for ten years. No Christian Democrat group leader has been in office longer than him. After declining to become a Commissioner in 2019, his career plans are open. Should Metsola become President of the European Parliament again, the man from Lower Bavaria is likely to be re-elected as the undisputed leader of the largest political group in the European Parliament. It is expected that Metsola could challenge Weber for the post after the first half of the parliamentary term at the latest.
The Italian and Spanish delegations of the Socialists had already made a deal in the last weeks of the session before the 2019 elections, which secured the Spanish the group chairmanship and the Italians the first committee chairmanship. The deal is not expected to be repeated. The Italians are dissatisfied because group leader Iratxe García often received instructions from the government headquarters in Madrid, which the group was supposed to follow.
It could be that this time it is not the strongest national delegation that takes the chair, but a group leader from a smaller member state. Pedro Marques from Portugal is considered a candidate. Robert Biedroń from Poland and Kathleen Van Brempt from Belgium have also been mentioned.
In the Liberal Group, it is unclear whether member parties will leave after the European elections and whether the group will continue to be the third strongest force. Stéphane Séjourné currently leads the group.
The Greens have a dual leadership in the parliamentary group. Terry Reintke, who has been at the helm since 2022, wants to stay on. Following the retirement of Philippe Lamberts, Dutchman Baas Eickhout could run for this position.
In the Conservative Party (ECR), the Italian and Polish delegations have so far each nominated a chairman. It is considered likely that Nicola Procaccini, who is close to Meloni, will run again. It is unclear who the PIS will send into the race.
“Man of the Year” was the headline of the right-wing conservative Italian daily Libero in its edition of December 29, 2023. Below it: A photo of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The 46-year-old is the first woman to hold this office in the history of the Italian Republic. For around 14 months, she has governed Italy in a coalition of three right-wing parties: her Fratelli d’Italia, Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Forza Italia, once founded by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who died in June 2023.
Meloni should have nothing against this title. Only a few days in office, she made it clear that she was “the prime minister”: “Il presidente del consiglio dei ministri” and not “la presidente”, as some had hastily dubbed her. It is no surprise that Meloni has an arch-conservative stance. During the election campaign in the late summer of 2022, she promoted herself with the slogan: “I am Giorgia, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian and a Christian.” Meloni is often referred to as a “post-fascist”, especially abroad. Her party, the Fratelli d’Italia, is the successor organization to the Movimento Sociale Italiano (MSI), which brought together sympathizers and followers of the dictator Benito Mussolini after the Second World War.
It was not the fascist background of her party that persuaded voters to give Meloni their vote. For many, it was the lack of alternatives, the frustration with the previous governing parties. You often hear in Italy: Meloni is one of us, she speaks like us, she understands us.
Born in Rome, she comes from the working-class district of Garbatella. Her father was a communist and left the family at an early age, so Giorgia and her sister grew up with their mother and grandparents, as Meloni describes in her autobiography. It also tells how she was bullied as a teenager and called a “fat dumpling”. The fear of not being seen as an equal is her strength today, Meloni writes.
At the age of 15, she laid the foundations for her political career and joined the MSI youth organization in 1992. In 2006, Meloni was elected to parliament for the first time, now as a member of the Alleanza Nazionale (AN), the successor to the MSI. In 2008, she made political history when she became the country’s youngest minister and was responsible for youth and sport in Silvio Berlusconi’s government. Four years later, in 2012, Meloni founded the current governing party, the Fratelli d’Italia.
Her political views are clearly on the far right. Meloni wants to reduce the number of migrants coming to Italy from Africa to zero if possible. She is strictly opposed to abortion and is against homosexual couples being able to adopt children. She propagates the image of a family consisting of a man, woman and children.
Meloni became the mother of a daughter in 2016. She separated from the child’s father, Andrea Giambruno, a few weeks ago. A satirical program had published audio files in which the TV journalist made disgusting, lewd and sexist remarks to female colleagues. The country’s solidarity was then clearly with the head of government.
Despite her success with the public, Meloni is very cautious. She rarely gives interviews. She has built up a circle of confidants around her – which is also her closest family circle. Meloni’s brother-in-law, the hardliner Francesco Lollobrigida, holds the office of Minister of Agriculture. Meloni’s sister Arianna was recently appointed managing director of Fratelli d’Italia.
The Fratelli d’Italia’s poll ratings have risen since coming to power. They currently stand at 28.8%. In the election on September 25, 2022, they received around 26% of the vote. One reason that is likely to contribute to their popularity: Giorgia Meloni is the first person to hold the office of head of government for a long time who was elected by the citizens precisely for this purpose. Mario Monti, Enrico Letta, Matteo Renzi, Paolo Gentiloni, Giuseppe Conte and Mario Draghi – they were all appointed as heads of government without having applied for the office beforehand.
An office that also costs Meloni energy. The traditional end-of-year press conference had to be postponed twice at short notice. It was reported that the head of government had been suffering from flu for around two weeks. The Italian press also reported dizziness and balance problems. The new date for the Q&A session with journalists is Jan. 4.
There are plenty of topics: shortly before Christmas, the Italian parliament rejected the reform of the euro bailout fund (ESM) that had been planned by the euro states for years. Italy will hold the presidency of the G7 in 2024. And shortly before the summit in Apulia, the European elections are due at the beginning of June. As the Italian governing parties in Brussels are organized in different political groups, the elections are also likely to be a test for the alliance in Rome. Almut Siefert
Happy New Year! As we usher in 2024, it’s with great excitement that we present the 600th issue of Europe.Table. This milestone fills us with immense pride, and we hope you’ll continue to join us on this journey, perhaps even sharing our insights with friends and colleagues.
As we bid farewell to 2023, we reflect on the passing of two influential figures in European politics: Wolfgang Schäuble and Jacques Delors, each leaving an indelible mark in their distinct capacities.
Wolfgang Schäuble’s departure is mourned across Germany and Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission President, expressed her condolences via X, recognizing Schäuble as a pillar of German democracy. His vision and leadership have profoundly shaped our political landscape.
The legacy of Jacques Delors, another titan of European unity, is equally significant. Von der Leyen celebrated his contributions, noting how his tenure as the head of the EU Commission fostered cooperation and a European identity. Delors’ vision for a unified, just, and prosperous Europe continues to influence us profoundly.
As we move forward, Belgium assumes the Council Presidency, undertaking the critical task of shaping key legislations like the AI Act before the next European elections in June. The road ahead is filled with opportunities and challenges, and 2024 promises to be a year of dynamic progress for Europe. Let’s embrace this journey together, carrying the legacies of our past leaders as beacons for the future.
Who will be what? The poker game for the top jobs that will be filled after the European elections at the beginning of June has begun. The central question is the name of the Commission President for the 2024 to 2029 term. The first candidate is Ursula von der Leyen. The President of the Commission, who has been in office since 2019, has announced that she will make her decision public at the beginning of the year as to whether she will run again.
There are many indications of this. For example, that she has cleared up points of conflict with her Christian Democrat party family. EPP party and parliamentary group leader Manfred Weber also assumes that von der Leyen will be available when the Christian Democratic party family meets in Bucharest on March 6 and 7 to select the lead candidate for the European elections.
The deadline for the Socialists to nominate their lead candidates is Jan. 7. Luxembourg’s Commissioner for Social Affairs, Nicolas Schmit, and Katarina Barley, Vice-President of the European Parliament, are considered contenders.
The Green party family will select two top candidates at its congress on Feb. 2 in Lyon. Group leader Terry Reintke and her deputy Baas Eickhout will likely win the race.
The Liberals did not support the top candidate principle in 2019. Whether and who they nominate as lead candidate is likely to be discussed at a high-level meeting of the party family in Brussels on Jan. 8.
Von der Leyen would have a good chance of winning a second mandate. The EPP is likely to become the strongest parliamentary group again in the European elections. Von der Leyen is expected to have a strong term in office. There is no candidate from the other party families who could pose a threat to her. She would probably have the support of Berlin and Paris and therefore the two largest member states behind her.
However, the German would have to fight for majorities both among the heads of state and government and in the European Parliament. This scenario presupposes that the Christian Democrat (EPP), Socialist (PES) and Liberal (Renew) party families would once again form an informal alliance to support von der Leyen. It cannot be ruled out that the Greens (European Greens) will join, and that Italy’s head of government Georgia Meloni, as leader of the Conservatives (ECR), will get involved and derive demands from this.
If the job at the head of the Commission were to go to the EPP again, the Socialists and Liberals, as further members of the informal Von der Leyen coalition, would lay claim to the positions of Council President and Foreign Affairs Commissioner. The post of President of Parliament in both the first and second half of the parliamentary term is part of the extended personnel package. No one has yet been appointed to succeed Charles Michel at the head of the Council or Josep Borrell as Foreign Affairs Commissioner.
The Eastern Europeans are expressing their wishes after being left empty-handed in this mandate. Former ECB President Mario Draghi is also said to be interested, and Meloni could bring him into play as Council President despite his advanced age of 76. Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon could be in the running if the “EU Foreign Minister” were to go to the Socialists.
Behind the scenes, it is said that France’s Emmanuel Macron is claiming more than the leadership of the European Central Bank (ECB) for his country. The mandate of current President Christine Lagarde runs until 2027. Among the heads of state and government, Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Greece) and Pedro Sánchez (Spain) are said to be interested in moving to Brussels.
In Parliament, the Socialists and Christian Democrats are likely to wrestle over which party will be allowed to appoint the president first. Incumbent Roberta Metsola from Malta would like to serve a second term. The Christian Democrat has received good marks from all parties for her first term in office. Among the Socialists, Iratxe García Pérez has ambitions for the post. She has been leader of the parliamentary group since 2019, but has also been criticized internally for speaking poor English and cutting a rather weak political figure.
Manfred Weber (CSU) has headed the EPP Group for ten years. No Christian Democrat group leader has been in office longer than him. After declining to become a Commissioner in 2019, his career plans are open. Should Metsola become President of the European Parliament again, the man from Lower Bavaria is likely to be re-elected as the undisputed leader of the largest political group in the European Parliament. It is expected that Metsola could challenge Weber for the post after the first half of the parliamentary term at the latest.
The Italian and Spanish delegations of the Socialists had already made a deal in the last weeks of the session before the 2019 elections, which secured the Spanish the group chairmanship and the Italians the first committee chairmanship. The deal is not expected to be repeated. The Italians are dissatisfied because group leader Iratxe García often received instructions from the government headquarters in Madrid, which the group was supposed to follow.
It could be that this time it is not the strongest national delegation that takes the chair, but a group leader from a smaller member state. Pedro Marques from Portugal is considered a candidate. Robert Biedroń from Poland and Kathleen Van Brempt from Belgium have also been mentioned.
In the Liberal Group, it is unclear whether member parties will leave after the European elections and whether the group will continue to be the third strongest force. Stéphane Séjourné currently leads the group.
The Greens have a dual leadership in the parliamentary group. Terry Reintke, who has been at the helm since 2022, wants to stay on. Following the retirement of Philippe Lamberts, Dutchman Baas Eickhout could run for this position.
In the Conservative Party (ECR), the Italian and Polish delegations have so far each nominated a chairman. It is considered likely that Nicola Procaccini, who is close to Meloni, will run again. It is unclear who the PIS will send into the race.
“Man of the Year” was the headline of the right-wing conservative Italian daily Libero in its edition of December 29, 2023. Below it: A photo of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The 46-year-old is the first woman to hold this office in the history of the Italian Republic. For around 14 months, she has governed Italy in a coalition of three right-wing parties: her Fratelli d’Italia, Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Forza Italia, once founded by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who died in June 2023.
Meloni should have nothing against this title. Only a few days in office, she made it clear that she was “the prime minister”: “Il presidente del consiglio dei ministri” and not “la presidente”, as some had hastily dubbed her. It is no surprise that Meloni has an arch-conservative stance. During the election campaign in the late summer of 2022, she promoted herself with the slogan: “I am Giorgia, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian and a Christian.” Meloni is often referred to as a “post-fascist”, especially abroad. Her party, the Fratelli d’Italia, is the successor organization to the Movimento Sociale Italiano (MSI), which brought together sympathizers and followers of the dictator Benito Mussolini after the Second World War.
It was not the fascist background of her party that persuaded voters to give Meloni their vote. For many, it was the lack of alternatives, the frustration with the previous governing parties. You often hear in Italy: Meloni is one of us, she speaks like us, she understands us.
Born in Rome, she comes from the working-class district of Garbatella. Her father was a communist and left the family at an early age, so Giorgia and her sister grew up with their mother and grandparents, as Meloni describes in her autobiography. It also tells how she was bullied as a teenager and called a “fat dumpling”. The fear of not being seen as an equal is her strength today, Meloni writes.
At the age of 15, she laid the foundations for her political career and joined the MSI youth organization in 1992. In 2006, Meloni was elected to parliament for the first time, now as a member of the Alleanza Nazionale (AN), the successor to the MSI. In 2008, she made political history when she became the country’s youngest minister and was responsible for youth and sport in Silvio Berlusconi’s government. Four years later, in 2012, Meloni founded the current governing party, the Fratelli d’Italia.
Her political views are clearly on the far right. Meloni wants to reduce the number of migrants coming to Italy from Africa to zero if possible. She is strictly opposed to abortion and is against homosexual couples being able to adopt children. She propagates the image of a family consisting of a man, woman and children.
Meloni became the mother of a daughter in 2016. She separated from the child’s father, Andrea Giambruno, a few weeks ago. A satirical program had published audio files in which the TV journalist made disgusting, lewd and sexist remarks to female colleagues. The country’s solidarity was then clearly with the head of government.
Despite her success with the public, Meloni is very cautious. She rarely gives interviews. She has built up a circle of confidants around her – which is also her closest family circle. Meloni’s brother-in-law, the hardliner Francesco Lollobrigida, holds the office of Minister of Agriculture. Meloni’s sister Arianna was recently appointed managing director of Fratelli d’Italia.
The Fratelli d’Italia’s poll ratings have risen since coming to power. They currently stand at 28.8%. In the election on September 25, 2022, they received around 26% of the vote. One reason that is likely to contribute to their popularity: Giorgia Meloni is the first person to hold the office of head of government for a long time who was elected by the citizens precisely for this purpose. Mario Monti, Enrico Letta, Matteo Renzi, Paolo Gentiloni, Giuseppe Conte and Mario Draghi – they were all appointed as heads of government without having applied for the office beforehand.
An office that also costs Meloni energy. The traditional end-of-year press conference had to be postponed twice at short notice. It was reported that the head of government had been suffering from flu for around two weeks. The Italian press also reported dizziness and balance problems. The new date for the Q&A session with journalists is Jan. 4.
There are plenty of topics: shortly before Christmas, the Italian parliament rejected the reform of the euro bailout fund (ESM) that had been planned by the euro states for years. Italy will hold the presidency of the G7 in 2024. And shortly before the summit in Apulia, the European elections are due at the beginning of June. As the Italian governing parties in Brussels are organized in different political groups, the elections are also likely to be a test for the alliance in Rome. Almut Siefert
