President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is currently on a trip to the Baltic states. In Lithuania yesterday, during his first visit abroad this year, he called for more weapons aid to defend against the bombings. “Air defense systems are at the top of the list of things we lack“, he said in Vilnius on Wednesday after a meeting with his colleague Gitanas Nausėda.
Zelenskiy will continue his trip to the Baltic States today and tomorrow. According to his information, visits to Latvia and Estonia are still on the agenda. Even if Zelenskiy’s visit has been kept secret, as always: The fact that it is taking him to the Baltic States of all places is anything but a surprise. The President of Ukraine is hoping for encouragement from these close allies – and a signal effect on other states. After all, uncertainty about further military and financial support for his country has grown. In addition, the voices of those calling for a ceasefire are increasing. Yesterday, Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in Rome that it was time for diplomacy to pave the way to peace.
Zelenskiy said on Wednesday: “There is no pressure from our partners to stop our defense. There is no pressure to freeze the conflict, not yet.” The NATO states promised further support for his country yesterday at the simultaneous NATO-Ukraine Council. The Ukrainian president also brought further concrete promises of military aid from Lithuania. And at EU level, plans are progressing to make the €50 billion in aid for Ukraine possible after all. My colleague Stephan Israel reports on what this could look like in his Analysis.
I wish you an exciting read!
NATO strongly condemns the recent Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian facilities in Ukraine. This was stated by the Secretary General of the defense alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, after the meeting. The attacks were also carried out with weapons from North Korea and Iran. Kyiv had convened the meeting of the new format of the NATO-Ukraine Council following the escalation at the beginning of the year.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had raised high expectations in advance. He hoped that decisions would be prepared to further improve Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. More modern systems and ammunition are needed. The allies were in the process of jointly procuring 1,000 missiles for the Patriot system, also to replenish their own stocks, Stoltenberg said in the evening. Great Britain was sending 200 air defense missiles, while Germany had already delivered additional Patriot and Skynex air defense systems.
According to Stoltenberg, many member states presented their plans at the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting on how they want to continue the billions in support in 2024. The meeting took place at the level of the NATO ambassadors. The Commander of the Air Force and Deputy Interior Minister Oleksii Serhieiev joined the meeting from Kyiv. According to diplomats, the Ukrainians mainly informed them about the extent of the damage caused by the Russian airstrikes. However, concrete announcements of further arms deliveries were not to be expected from the NATO-Ukraine Council. That is not what the council is for.
However, diplomats say that the new format is proving its worth for exchanges between Ukraine and the NATO states on an equal footing. The NATO-Ukraine Council was decided at the summit in Vilnius last July in order to bring the country closer to the alliance. Ukraine can convene the Council at any time, as it is doing now after the massive Russian shelling. For new commitments, however, Ukraine must wait for the next meeting in the so-called Ramstein format, which is expected to take place on the fringes of the next meeting of defense ministers in mid-February.
On Wednesday, the EU took one step closer to launching its financial aid for Ukraine. With a qualified majority, the ambassadors of the member states decided to start negotiations with the EU Parliament on the new Ukraine aid program of €50 billion for the next four years. The member states want to be able to move forward as quickly as possible should Hungary’s head of government Viktor Orbán give in at the special summit on February 1 and agree to the aid as part of the revision of the medium-term financial framework (MFF).
At the December summit, Orbán had blocked the Ukraine aid with his veto. At the ambassadors’ meeting, Hungary’s representative proposed a compromise, according to diplomats, to approve the aid in tranches from year to year. However, this would give Hungary’s head of government the opportunity to repeat his game of blackmail and blockades every year. Plan A is being worked on to ensure that Orbán gives in and agrees to the aid within the framework of the MFF, whereby unanimity is required. Otherwise, the member states want to be ready for plan B as quickly as possible at the beginning of February and be able to organize twenty-six support for Ukraine outside the EU budget.
Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib visit Beijing this week – the first representatives of an EU member state this year. Lahbib has been in Shanghai since Tuesday and will join the rest of the delegation in Beijing on Thursday. It is the first visit by a Belgian head of government since 2016. Belgium has held the EU Council Presidency since January 1.
The new year will also see old points of conflict: During the Belgian Prime Minister’s visit, the trade deficit with China will be a key topic. A large business delegation will be traveling with De Croo, as the Belgian newspaper Le Soir reports. The most important CEOs from Belgium will accompany him. Foreign Minister Lahbib will also be meeting business contacts in Shanghai.
De Croo and Lahbib will meet with Belgian and EU business representatives in the Chinese capital before meeting with the Chairman of China’s National People’s Congress, Zhao Leji, and Prime Minister Li Qiang for political talks. According to the agenda, about 45 minutes of talks are planned with Premier Qiang. According to the agenda, President Xi Jinping will also meet with De Croo on Friday and spend an hour with him.
The plan also includes signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the content of which Belgium did not initially disclose. De Croo and the delegation will also visit the Forbidden City and inaugurate the new Belgian embassy building in Beijing.
The last visit to China by a Belgian Prime Minister, Charles Michel, the current President of the EU Council, was long ago. It took place in 2016, just one year after the state visit by Belgium’s King Philippe. He traveled with the then Foreign Minister Didier Reynders and business leaders. In 2019, Princess Astrid visited the country with a large business delegation. According to reports in the Chinese state media, the mood during her trip was excellent; there was talk of “co-construction of the Belt and Road, and expand cooperation in trade, investment, and agriculture for high-level win-win results.” Then, the Covid pandemic hit.
Relations with China have cooled noticeably since. “The European concept of de-risking is a major concern for the Chinese”, Bernard Dewit, lawyer and President of the Belgian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, told Le Soir. Although there is less new foreign investment in China, many large companies have remained there, he says.
He cites the pharmaceutical and biotechnology company UCB, multinational group Solvay, recycling group Umicore, steel processor Bekaert and display manufacturer Barco as examples. “The ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge are also represented there or maintain ties with their Chinese counterparts.” China’s state-owned shipping company Cosco holds 90 percent of the only container terminal in Zeebrugge, as well as Chinese minority stakes in Antwerp terminals.
As a relatively small country with a population of just over 11.5 million, Belgium ranks seventh on the list of EU exporters to China in 2022, behind Spain and ahead of Sweden. Belgium also ranks seventh among EU countries in terms of imports. Outside of ports, Chinese companies also play an essential role in the Belgian economy: Volvo Car in Ghent is owned by the Geely Group. The online giant Alibaba operates a huge logistics center in Liège.
Yet according to Le Soir, Belgium’s trade deficit with China is currently estimated at 27 billion. Reducing the deficit with the People’s Republic was also the top concern of the EU representatives at the EU-China summit last December. The deficit for the EU is around 400 billion euros. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Michel, who accompanied her, clearly stated in Beijing that this must change – and that the European Union has the means to do so.
According to Chamber of Commerce boss Dewit, Beijing perceived the EU’s idea of restricting foreign investment in strategic economic sectors as protectionism. He concludes that the honeymoon phase is over. “Now we are more in the age of reason, with a more mature couple where everyone has to learn to live with each other’s peculiarities.”
The honeymoon has not only ended in trade policy – there is also disgruntlement at a diplomatic level. In December, the Financial Times, Le Monde and Spiegel newspapers uncovered a Belgian-Chinese espionage scandal, a veritable Chinagate. “Belgian democracy is being sold. The Chinese are trying to buy influence in order to destabilize our democracy,” De Croo commented on the reports.
The reports revealed that Frank Creyelman, a politician from the far-right Vlaams Belang party, had collaborated with Chinese spies for several years. According to the investigations, Chinese intelligence services had paid Creyelman to spread Chinese positions in Europe. One victim of the projects aimed at damaging the reputation of individuals was critical researcher Adrian Zenz, who uncovered the extent of the repression in Xinjiang.
The affair caused a huge stir and highlighted China’s interference attempts in Europe. De Croo called the practice “unacceptable.” At a hearing in the Belgian Parliament, he assured that he would raise the issue with the Chinese leadership. The Belgian Prime Minister described China’s behavior as “sometimes very hostile.”
However, the espionage scandal is not the only reason for diplomatic discord: In 2021, Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmès summoned the Chinese ambassador after China sanctioned Belgian MP Samuel Cogolati. In 2022, Belgium contacted the Chinese authorities following a cyberattack against the Ministry of Defense by “Chinese groups.” And in October 2023, Belgium’s intelligence service announced an investigation into suspected espionage from the Alibaba logistics center in Liège.
The Belgian Parliament is also one of the few European parliaments that has spoken out against the “danger of genocide” against the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang. The Belgian government may not use the term yet. But diplomatic relations still show cracks.
De Croo will now also be received in Beijing as a representative of the EU Council Presidency. The Belgian program for the EU Council Presidency focuses primarily on trade with China and continues its 2023 approach of restoring the “level playing field,” i.e., uniform competitive conditions, and reducing dependencies on China. According to the program, the Belgian EU Council Presidency will strive to “develop a coherent and consensual EU policy.”
Beijing’s first guest De Croo thus personifies Europe’s China dilemma in some ways. The visit will also set the tone for the coming months, at least until the end of June when Hungary will take over the EU Council Presidency.
The European election year has begun, and in the first seat projection of the year, many developments that had already emerged in previous months are becoming more pronounced. Compared to the last projection in November 2023, the center-left camp continues to lose ground, far-right parties continue to gain ground and the European People’s Party (EPP) remains well ahead of the social democratic S&D group.
The last few weeks have not brought any major changes for either the EPP or the S&D. The Christian Democrats have 169 seats in the basic scenario of the projection – one fewer than in November. In the dynamic scenario, which also takes into account the possibility of new member parties joining the parliamentary group, they have 177 seats. The Social Democrats improve to 141 seats (+4, dynamic scenario: 143) and can thus slightly reduce the gap to the EPP. However, in order to have a real chance of coming first in the European elections, they would have to significantly accelerate their race to catch up in the coming months.
The liberal Renew parliamentary group has suffered significant losses in recent weeks, with the defeat in the Dutch parliamentary elections in November having a particularly lasting effect. With just 86 seats (-4 / dynamic scenario: 91), the Liberals achieved their lowest result since the rise of Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2017. Things look even worse for the left-wing group, which with 33 seats (-10, dynamic scenario: 35) even achieved its weakest result in more than a decade. In France in particular, the left-wing party LFI, with its ambivalent stance on anti-Semitism, has lost a lot of support since the start of the Gaza war. The European Greens, on the other hand, have made slight gains and now stand at 45 seats (+2, dynamic scenario: 47).
However, the real winner in recent weeks has been the far-right ID Group. The most politically radical grouping in the European Parliament is experiencing a massive upswing, primarily due to the success of its Dutch member party PVV. However, the German AfD, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National from France and the Belgian Vlaams Belang are also making further gains. With a total of 89 seats (+13), the ID would now overtake the Liberals as the third-strongest group in parliament for the first time. In the dynamic scenario, which also assumes that the Hungarian governing party Fidesz joins the ID, the gain is even higher. In this scenario, the ID would gain 108 seats, almost twice as many as in the current parliament.
With this upswing, the ID also leaves the other European right-wing group, the ECR, far behind, which, with 75 seats, performs slightly weaker than in the November projection (-3, dynamic scenario: 85). However, this would still be a huge increase for the ECR compared to the current parliament. In addition, the largely right-wing non-attached parties could also make gains in the seat projection, now with 43 seats (+5 / dynamic scenario: 34).
Overall, a debacle is looming for the parties to the left of the EPP in the European elections. With a total of 316 out of 720 seats (dynamic scenario), the center-left camp of S&D, Liberals, Greens and Left would be further away from a majority than ever before. Conversely, due to the weakening of the Liberals, a center-right alliance of the EPP, ECR and RE would also be just short of its own majority (353 out of 720 seats) – not to mention the fact that the Liberals are very sceptical about such an alliance and certainly do not want to formalize it.
The EPP and ECR would therefore only have a solid majority to the right of the Social Democrats if the ID were included (370 of 720 seats). For this, however, the EPP would have to tear down the “firewall” with which the democratic parties have so far separated themselves from the far-right faction. Otherwise, the only primary majority option is the alliance of the EPP, S&D and RE (411 out of 720 seats), which has always been responsible for most decisions in the European Parliament in the past. Nevertheless, according to the projection, this “eternal grand coalition” still has a solid majority, albeit a smaller one than ever before.
After the election, the EPP will therefore be the key factor. It must decide whether it will follow the European shift to the right and accept cooperation with extreme parties or whether it will remain in the democratic center and tie itself even more closely to social democrats and liberals. This decision will determine the course the European Parliament takes in the next parliamentary term.
Whether this actually happens, however, is of course up to the European voters. The seat projection presented here is only a snapshot of the political mood, and the European elections are still almost six months away.
As there are no pan-European election polls, the seat projection is based on aggregated national polls and election results from all member states. In the base scenario, all national parties are assigned to their current parliamentary group (or the parliamentary group of their European umbrella party); parties without a clear assignment are shown as “other”. The dynamic scenario assigns all “other” parties to a parliamentary group that they could plausibly join and also includes other possible changes to the parliamentary groups.
Further information on the data basis and methodology of the projection as well as a more detailed breakdown of the results can be found on the blog The (European) Federalist. Manuel Müller
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is currently on a trip to the Baltic states. In Lithuania yesterday, during his first visit abroad this year, he called for more weapons aid to defend against the bombings. “Air defense systems are at the top of the list of things we lack“, he said in Vilnius on Wednesday after a meeting with his colleague Gitanas Nausėda.
Zelenskiy will continue his trip to the Baltic States today and tomorrow. According to his information, visits to Latvia and Estonia are still on the agenda. Even if Zelenskiy’s visit has been kept secret, as always: The fact that it is taking him to the Baltic States of all places is anything but a surprise. The President of Ukraine is hoping for encouragement from these close allies – and a signal effect on other states. After all, uncertainty about further military and financial support for his country has grown. In addition, the voices of those calling for a ceasefire are increasing. Yesterday, Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in Rome that it was time for diplomacy to pave the way to peace.
Zelenskiy said on Wednesday: “There is no pressure from our partners to stop our defense. There is no pressure to freeze the conflict, not yet.” The NATO states promised further support for his country yesterday at the simultaneous NATO-Ukraine Council. The Ukrainian president also brought further concrete promises of military aid from Lithuania. And at EU level, plans are progressing to make the €50 billion in aid for Ukraine possible after all. My colleague Stephan Israel reports on what this could look like in his Analysis.
I wish you an exciting read!
NATO strongly condemns the recent Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian facilities in Ukraine. This was stated by the Secretary General of the defense alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, after the meeting. The attacks were also carried out with weapons from North Korea and Iran. Kyiv had convened the meeting of the new format of the NATO-Ukraine Council following the escalation at the beginning of the year.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had raised high expectations in advance. He hoped that decisions would be prepared to further improve Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. More modern systems and ammunition are needed. The allies were in the process of jointly procuring 1,000 missiles for the Patriot system, also to replenish their own stocks, Stoltenberg said in the evening. Great Britain was sending 200 air defense missiles, while Germany had already delivered additional Patriot and Skynex air defense systems.
According to Stoltenberg, many member states presented their plans at the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting on how they want to continue the billions in support in 2024. The meeting took place at the level of the NATO ambassadors. The Commander of the Air Force and Deputy Interior Minister Oleksii Serhieiev joined the meeting from Kyiv. According to diplomats, the Ukrainians mainly informed them about the extent of the damage caused by the Russian airstrikes. However, concrete announcements of further arms deliveries were not to be expected from the NATO-Ukraine Council. That is not what the council is for.
However, diplomats say that the new format is proving its worth for exchanges between Ukraine and the NATO states on an equal footing. The NATO-Ukraine Council was decided at the summit in Vilnius last July in order to bring the country closer to the alliance. Ukraine can convene the Council at any time, as it is doing now after the massive Russian shelling. For new commitments, however, Ukraine must wait for the next meeting in the so-called Ramstein format, which is expected to take place on the fringes of the next meeting of defense ministers in mid-February.
On Wednesday, the EU took one step closer to launching its financial aid for Ukraine. With a qualified majority, the ambassadors of the member states decided to start negotiations with the EU Parliament on the new Ukraine aid program of €50 billion for the next four years. The member states want to be able to move forward as quickly as possible should Hungary’s head of government Viktor Orbán give in at the special summit on February 1 and agree to the aid as part of the revision of the medium-term financial framework (MFF).
At the December summit, Orbán had blocked the Ukraine aid with his veto. At the ambassadors’ meeting, Hungary’s representative proposed a compromise, according to diplomats, to approve the aid in tranches from year to year. However, this would give Hungary’s head of government the opportunity to repeat his game of blackmail and blockades every year. Plan A is being worked on to ensure that Orbán gives in and agrees to the aid within the framework of the MFF, whereby unanimity is required. Otherwise, the member states want to be ready for plan B as quickly as possible at the beginning of February and be able to organize twenty-six support for Ukraine outside the EU budget.
Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib visit Beijing this week – the first representatives of an EU member state this year. Lahbib has been in Shanghai since Tuesday and will join the rest of the delegation in Beijing on Thursday. It is the first visit by a Belgian head of government since 2016. Belgium has held the EU Council Presidency since January 1.
The new year will also see old points of conflict: During the Belgian Prime Minister’s visit, the trade deficit with China will be a key topic. A large business delegation will be traveling with De Croo, as the Belgian newspaper Le Soir reports. The most important CEOs from Belgium will accompany him. Foreign Minister Lahbib will also be meeting business contacts in Shanghai.
De Croo and Lahbib will meet with Belgian and EU business representatives in the Chinese capital before meeting with the Chairman of China’s National People’s Congress, Zhao Leji, and Prime Minister Li Qiang for political talks. According to the agenda, about 45 minutes of talks are planned with Premier Qiang. According to the agenda, President Xi Jinping will also meet with De Croo on Friday and spend an hour with him.
The plan also includes signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the content of which Belgium did not initially disclose. De Croo and the delegation will also visit the Forbidden City and inaugurate the new Belgian embassy building in Beijing.
The last visit to China by a Belgian Prime Minister, Charles Michel, the current President of the EU Council, was long ago. It took place in 2016, just one year after the state visit by Belgium’s King Philippe. He traveled with the then Foreign Minister Didier Reynders and business leaders. In 2019, Princess Astrid visited the country with a large business delegation. According to reports in the Chinese state media, the mood during her trip was excellent; there was talk of “co-construction of the Belt and Road, and expand cooperation in trade, investment, and agriculture for high-level win-win results.” Then, the Covid pandemic hit.
Relations with China have cooled noticeably since. “The European concept of de-risking is a major concern for the Chinese”, Bernard Dewit, lawyer and President of the Belgian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, told Le Soir. Although there is less new foreign investment in China, many large companies have remained there, he says.
He cites the pharmaceutical and biotechnology company UCB, multinational group Solvay, recycling group Umicore, steel processor Bekaert and display manufacturer Barco as examples. “The ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge are also represented there or maintain ties with their Chinese counterparts.” China’s state-owned shipping company Cosco holds 90 percent of the only container terminal in Zeebrugge, as well as Chinese minority stakes in Antwerp terminals.
As a relatively small country with a population of just over 11.5 million, Belgium ranks seventh on the list of EU exporters to China in 2022, behind Spain and ahead of Sweden. Belgium also ranks seventh among EU countries in terms of imports. Outside of ports, Chinese companies also play an essential role in the Belgian economy: Volvo Car in Ghent is owned by the Geely Group. The online giant Alibaba operates a huge logistics center in Liège.
Yet according to Le Soir, Belgium’s trade deficit with China is currently estimated at 27 billion. Reducing the deficit with the People’s Republic was also the top concern of the EU representatives at the EU-China summit last December. The deficit for the EU is around 400 billion euros. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Michel, who accompanied her, clearly stated in Beijing that this must change – and that the European Union has the means to do so.
According to Chamber of Commerce boss Dewit, Beijing perceived the EU’s idea of restricting foreign investment in strategic economic sectors as protectionism. He concludes that the honeymoon phase is over. “Now we are more in the age of reason, with a more mature couple where everyone has to learn to live with each other’s peculiarities.”
The honeymoon has not only ended in trade policy – there is also disgruntlement at a diplomatic level. In December, the Financial Times, Le Monde and Spiegel newspapers uncovered a Belgian-Chinese espionage scandal, a veritable Chinagate. “Belgian democracy is being sold. The Chinese are trying to buy influence in order to destabilize our democracy,” De Croo commented on the reports.
The reports revealed that Frank Creyelman, a politician from the far-right Vlaams Belang party, had collaborated with Chinese spies for several years. According to the investigations, Chinese intelligence services had paid Creyelman to spread Chinese positions in Europe. One victim of the projects aimed at damaging the reputation of individuals was critical researcher Adrian Zenz, who uncovered the extent of the repression in Xinjiang.
The affair caused a huge stir and highlighted China’s interference attempts in Europe. De Croo called the practice “unacceptable.” At a hearing in the Belgian Parliament, he assured that he would raise the issue with the Chinese leadership. The Belgian Prime Minister described China’s behavior as “sometimes very hostile.”
However, the espionage scandal is not the only reason for diplomatic discord: In 2021, Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmès summoned the Chinese ambassador after China sanctioned Belgian MP Samuel Cogolati. In 2022, Belgium contacted the Chinese authorities following a cyberattack against the Ministry of Defense by “Chinese groups.” And in October 2023, Belgium’s intelligence service announced an investigation into suspected espionage from the Alibaba logistics center in Liège.
The Belgian Parliament is also one of the few European parliaments that has spoken out against the “danger of genocide” against the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang. The Belgian government may not use the term yet. But diplomatic relations still show cracks.
De Croo will now also be received in Beijing as a representative of the EU Council Presidency. The Belgian program for the EU Council Presidency focuses primarily on trade with China and continues its 2023 approach of restoring the “level playing field,” i.e., uniform competitive conditions, and reducing dependencies on China. According to the program, the Belgian EU Council Presidency will strive to “develop a coherent and consensual EU policy.”
Beijing’s first guest De Croo thus personifies Europe’s China dilemma in some ways. The visit will also set the tone for the coming months, at least until the end of June when Hungary will take over the EU Council Presidency.
The European election year has begun, and in the first seat projection of the year, many developments that had already emerged in previous months are becoming more pronounced. Compared to the last projection in November 2023, the center-left camp continues to lose ground, far-right parties continue to gain ground and the European People’s Party (EPP) remains well ahead of the social democratic S&D group.
The last few weeks have not brought any major changes for either the EPP or the S&D. The Christian Democrats have 169 seats in the basic scenario of the projection – one fewer than in November. In the dynamic scenario, which also takes into account the possibility of new member parties joining the parliamentary group, they have 177 seats. The Social Democrats improve to 141 seats (+4, dynamic scenario: 143) and can thus slightly reduce the gap to the EPP. However, in order to have a real chance of coming first in the European elections, they would have to significantly accelerate their race to catch up in the coming months.
The liberal Renew parliamentary group has suffered significant losses in recent weeks, with the defeat in the Dutch parliamentary elections in November having a particularly lasting effect. With just 86 seats (-4 / dynamic scenario: 91), the Liberals achieved their lowest result since the rise of Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2017. Things look even worse for the left-wing group, which with 33 seats (-10, dynamic scenario: 35) even achieved its weakest result in more than a decade. In France in particular, the left-wing party LFI, with its ambivalent stance on anti-Semitism, has lost a lot of support since the start of the Gaza war. The European Greens, on the other hand, have made slight gains and now stand at 45 seats (+2, dynamic scenario: 47).
However, the real winner in recent weeks has been the far-right ID Group. The most politically radical grouping in the European Parliament is experiencing a massive upswing, primarily due to the success of its Dutch member party PVV. However, the German AfD, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National from France and the Belgian Vlaams Belang are also making further gains. With a total of 89 seats (+13), the ID would now overtake the Liberals as the third-strongest group in parliament for the first time. In the dynamic scenario, which also assumes that the Hungarian governing party Fidesz joins the ID, the gain is even higher. In this scenario, the ID would gain 108 seats, almost twice as many as in the current parliament.
With this upswing, the ID also leaves the other European right-wing group, the ECR, far behind, which, with 75 seats, performs slightly weaker than in the November projection (-3, dynamic scenario: 85). However, this would still be a huge increase for the ECR compared to the current parliament. In addition, the largely right-wing non-attached parties could also make gains in the seat projection, now with 43 seats (+5 / dynamic scenario: 34).
Overall, a debacle is looming for the parties to the left of the EPP in the European elections. With a total of 316 out of 720 seats (dynamic scenario), the center-left camp of S&D, Liberals, Greens and Left would be further away from a majority than ever before. Conversely, due to the weakening of the Liberals, a center-right alliance of the EPP, ECR and RE would also be just short of its own majority (353 out of 720 seats) – not to mention the fact that the Liberals are very sceptical about such an alliance and certainly do not want to formalize it.
The EPP and ECR would therefore only have a solid majority to the right of the Social Democrats if the ID were included (370 of 720 seats). For this, however, the EPP would have to tear down the “firewall” with which the democratic parties have so far separated themselves from the far-right faction. Otherwise, the only primary majority option is the alliance of the EPP, S&D and RE (411 out of 720 seats), which has always been responsible for most decisions in the European Parliament in the past. Nevertheless, according to the projection, this “eternal grand coalition” still has a solid majority, albeit a smaller one than ever before.
After the election, the EPP will therefore be the key factor. It must decide whether it will follow the European shift to the right and accept cooperation with extreme parties or whether it will remain in the democratic center and tie itself even more closely to social democrats and liberals. This decision will determine the course the European Parliament takes in the next parliamentary term.
Whether this actually happens, however, is of course up to the European voters. The seat projection presented here is only a snapshot of the political mood, and the European elections are still almost six months away.
As there are no pan-European election polls, the seat projection is based on aggregated national polls and election results from all member states. In the base scenario, all national parties are assigned to their current parliamentary group (or the parliamentary group of their European umbrella party); parties without a clear assignment are shown as “other”. The dynamic scenario assigns all “other” parties to a parliamentary group that they could plausibly join and also includes other possible changes to the parliamentary groups.
Further information on the data basis and methodology of the projection as well as a more detailed breakdown of the results can be found on the blog The (European) Federalist. Manuel Müller
