Rarely has a US election been so close, the result so difficult to predict and expectations so anxious. China is also hotly debating who will move into the White House. Newspapers, expert panels, think tanks and social media are discussing the implications of the election for China, possible influence in the background and the particularities of the election campaign. Manuel Changming Liu has scoured the Chinese-language web for you.
By the time you read this newsletter, the result may already be in. No matter what it is: Both candidates promise anything but a cozy relationship with China. This is just how the right-wing Chinese opposition media Epoch Times likes it. It opposes the Communist Party and was exposed as a generous donor to Trump in 2019. Margit Hildebrandt takes a look at how US citizens of Chinese descent feel about the medium, which could tip the scales in the swing state of Georgia, for example.
I hope you have a day that promises good things.
For months, China’s politicians and elites refrained from making public statements about the US presidential election – after all, they wanted to avoid giving the impression of exerting influence. A look at the media landscape shows that there is no clear tendency for a specific election outcome even on the day before the election. However, the way the US is being discussed and talked about is just as critical and sometimes aggressive as ever.
On Tuesday’s front page of the Chinese People’s Daily, the Communist Party made no mention of the US election. An online article highlighted problems in the US that are often cited as arguments against the American social model. A lack of healthcare, rising gun violence, high polarization and illegal migration would show the “truth of American democracy.”
No official statements were made. Only Li Qiang’s speech on the eve of the election could be interpreted as a signal to Washington. At the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, the Premier made the case for free trade with other countries.
The Beijing Daily lists supposed “American diseases,” such as political polarization and the culture war, which the election campaign has brought to light. According to the paper, it is already clear that three specific features characterized the campaign:
A panel of experts widely quoted in the Chinese media concluded shortly before the election that Trump had a better chance of winning on election day than his opponent – even if he was more dangerous for the US and the world. Huang Jing, professor at the University of International Studies in Shanghai, believes that a divided US population wants political change in view of high consumer prices and a weak real estate market.
He said the Biden administration had ultimately failed to solve the three biggest problems that would hurt Harris: The economy, immigration, and foreign policy. Huang noted that Harris’ ‘limited skills’ would not be enough to properly differentiate herself from the Biden policy and present her own approach.
Jin Canrong, Professor of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing and an expert on the US, pointed out that Trump inspires more enthusiasm among his supporters than his opponent, which will bring him success on election day. Jin believes that the brutalization of the debate culture would strengthen Trump’s base. His re-election would unsettle the stock markets in the short term.
However, he argues that Trump will not be able to abandon Ukraine as Europe and, in particular, Eastern European partners would not tolerate this. In the event of a Democratic victory, Jin predicts that Harris would adopt a policy “to the left of Biden.” He also assumes that “people in power” in the background would do everything to help Harris win – including election fraud. He thus repeats unproven claims by Trump Republicans that the ‘deep state’ would rig the election in favor of the Democrats.
The founder and president of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG), Wang Huiyao, warns of further tariffs on Chinese companies if Trump moves back into the White House. He would use this to force Beijing to the negotiating table and conclude another trade agreement. Wang also sees potential for Chinese companies to invest and build factories in the United States under a second Trump presidency. Trump will adopt a “pragmatic stance” on the Taiwan question, says Wang.
The business magazine Caixin expects the strategic rivalry between the US and China to intensify – regardless of the election outcome. Trump’s rhetoric towards China has become much more aggressive in recent months and Harris, like Biden, would strengthen alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s influence. All in all, media voices unanimously agreed that Harris would continue her predecessor’s China policy.
On social media, which is controlled by the censorship apparatus in Beijing, Chinese citizens are also discussing the possible implications of the election results. According to Radio Free Asia, the discussion mainly revolves around two scenarios: On the one hand, there is hope that the new US government will take a more friendly approach towards China. On the other hand, there is debate whether the decline of the USA is imminent.
Voices in support of both US parties can be found on social media platforms. One user supports Trump due to his close relationship with Elon Musk: “I want Trump to win because Musk is rational and has a factory in China.” Another wants Harris to win, only to see Trump lose. However, some users also think that the US election does not concern China, writing, “Don’t mind other people’s business” and “Whoever gets elected won’t do China any good, so why care?”
US citizens of Chinese descent could tip the scales in the US presidential elections. Georgia, for example, is home to over 80,000 eligible voters with roots in the People’s Republic. Georgia is one of the contested swing states where reliable predictions are virtually impossible. Fewer than 12,000 votes went to the Democrats in the 2020 election.
This year’s head-to-head race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could also be decided in Georgia and again by a margin of just under five figures. Whoever wins the majority of Chinese votes may secure a job in the White House.
Trump’s advantage: He enjoys the support of a medium with at least its ethnic roots in the People’s Republic – The Epoch Times. The newspaper was founded in 2000 as a non-profit mouthpiece for followers of the religious Falun Gong movement and is now one of Trump’s most loyal supporters. Its founder Li Honghzi has lived in the USA since 1998. Back in 2016, the paper stood loyally by the eventual election winner.
The political arm of Falun Gong views Trump as an ally in its fight against the Chinese government. In 1999, the Communist Party branded Falun Gong an “evil cult” and banned it in China. Even though the group did not formulate any political goals beyond its official recognition, the government was alarmed by its pull. By this time, the movement had already gained 70 million followers. The government persecuted its supporters and sent them to labor camps or prisons.
Part of Epoch Media is the radio network Sound of Hope and the broadcaster New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD). By its own account, the media company is the fourth largest in the United States by subscriptions and is active in 35 countries and 22 languages.
The Epoch Times’ affinity for Trump came about during the 2016 US election campaign, when Trump was already using rhetoric that was highly critical of China. Over the years, The Epoch Times invested several million US dollars in advertising for the Republicans on social media. It did so in secret, but was exposed as a generous donor in 2019.
Support for Trump has not changed. A former employee of the medium told The Diplomat magazine that the Epoch Times editorial team “has an almost ‘messianic’ way of viewing Donald Trump.” Especially as it does not refrain from delving into the cosmos of conspiracy theories. Epoch Times-affiliated publications, shows and outlets have spread the QAnon conspiracy theory, as well as twisted claims about election fraud and the January 6, 2021, storming of the US Capitol.
The Epoch Times did not respond to questions from Table.Briefings. It generally avoids contact with the press, but is also currently facing allegations of involvement in a criminal money laundering scheme. In June, New York prosecutors charged the organization’s financial planner, Bill Guan Weidong, with laundering at least 67 million US dollars. According to the Department of Justice, the alleged fraud scheme began in 2020 – while the Epoch Times’ revenue had grown from 15 million dollars the previous year to over 60 million dollars. Guan had previously claimed the windfall was due to an increase in subscriptions and donations.
However, the company did suffer a considerable loss of attention during this period. In December 2019, Facebook deleted hundreds of Epoch Times accounts and banned all advertising on the portal. The number of followers shrank significantly from over 50 million to just under 9 million.
All this raises doubts as to whether The Epoch Times could actually mobilize a large number of voters of Chinese descent to vote for Trump. Especially as its staunchly right-wing stance and the spread of conspiracy myths are not only gaining sympathy among Chinese migrants – the Chinese community in the US is too diverse.
The voting preferences of the Chinese-American community remain unclear because “deep political divisions across generations, professions, proximity to immigration, gender, and education level” encourage different voting behavior, writes the US political magazine Foreign Policy. As with other Asian-American populations, many Chinese do not have a long family tradition of voting Republican or Democrat, resulting in weaker party loyalty. Margit Hildebrandt
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
A bird’s eye view of white cranes resting: The photo shows part of a flock of over 500 birds. The picture was taken over the Wolong wetland in Shenyang in the north-eastern province of Liaoning. White cranes are endangered. Every year, around 2,000 of them spend part of the year in Wolong. What makes them so unique compared to other crane species is that they lack pigment-forming cells.
Rarely has a US election been so close, the result so difficult to predict and expectations so anxious. China is also hotly debating who will move into the White House. Newspapers, expert panels, think tanks and social media are discussing the implications of the election for China, possible influence in the background and the particularities of the election campaign. Manuel Changming Liu has scoured the Chinese-language web for you.
By the time you read this newsletter, the result may already be in. No matter what it is: Both candidates promise anything but a cozy relationship with China. This is just how the right-wing Chinese opposition media Epoch Times likes it. It opposes the Communist Party and was exposed as a generous donor to Trump in 2019. Margit Hildebrandt takes a look at how US citizens of Chinese descent feel about the medium, which could tip the scales in the swing state of Georgia, for example.
I hope you have a day that promises good things.
For months, China’s politicians and elites refrained from making public statements about the US presidential election – after all, they wanted to avoid giving the impression of exerting influence. A look at the media landscape shows that there is no clear tendency for a specific election outcome even on the day before the election. However, the way the US is being discussed and talked about is just as critical and sometimes aggressive as ever.
On Tuesday’s front page of the Chinese People’s Daily, the Communist Party made no mention of the US election. An online article highlighted problems in the US that are often cited as arguments against the American social model. A lack of healthcare, rising gun violence, high polarization and illegal migration would show the “truth of American democracy.”
No official statements were made. Only Li Qiang’s speech on the eve of the election could be interpreted as a signal to Washington. At the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, the Premier made the case for free trade with other countries.
The Beijing Daily lists supposed “American diseases,” such as political polarization and the culture war, which the election campaign has brought to light. According to the paper, it is already clear that three specific features characterized the campaign:
A panel of experts widely quoted in the Chinese media concluded shortly before the election that Trump had a better chance of winning on election day than his opponent – even if he was more dangerous for the US and the world. Huang Jing, professor at the University of International Studies in Shanghai, believes that a divided US population wants political change in view of high consumer prices and a weak real estate market.
He said the Biden administration had ultimately failed to solve the three biggest problems that would hurt Harris: The economy, immigration, and foreign policy. Huang noted that Harris’ ‘limited skills’ would not be enough to properly differentiate herself from the Biden policy and present her own approach.
Jin Canrong, Professor of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing and an expert on the US, pointed out that Trump inspires more enthusiasm among his supporters than his opponent, which will bring him success on election day. Jin believes that the brutalization of the debate culture would strengthen Trump’s base. His re-election would unsettle the stock markets in the short term.
However, he argues that Trump will not be able to abandon Ukraine as Europe and, in particular, Eastern European partners would not tolerate this. In the event of a Democratic victory, Jin predicts that Harris would adopt a policy “to the left of Biden.” He also assumes that “people in power” in the background would do everything to help Harris win – including election fraud. He thus repeats unproven claims by Trump Republicans that the ‘deep state’ would rig the election in favor of the Democrats.
The founder and president of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG), Wang Huiyao, warns of further tariffs on Chinese companies if Trump moves back into the White House. He would use this to force Beijing to the negotiating table and conclude another trade agreement. Wang also sees potential for Chinese companies to invest and build factories in the United States under a second Trump presidency. Trump will adopt a “pragmatic stance” on the Taiwan question, says Wang.
The business magazine Caixin expects the strategic rivalry between the US and China to intensify – regardless of the election outcome. Trump’s rhetoric towards China has become much more aggressive in recent months and Harris, like Biden, would strengthen alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s influence. All in all, media voices unanimously agreed that Harris would continue her predecessor’s China policy.
On social media, which is controlled by the censorship apparatus in Beijing, Chinese citizens are also discussing the possible implications of the election results. According to Radio Free Asia, the discussion mainly revolves around two scenarios: On the one hand, there is hope that the new US government will take a more friendly approach towards China. On the other hand, there is debate whether the decline of the USA is imminent.
Voices in support of both US parties can be found on social media platforms. One user supports Trump due to his close relationship with Elon Musk: “I want Trump to win because Musk is rational and has a factory in China.” Another wants Harris to win, only to see Trump lose. However, some users also think that the US election does not concern China, writing, “Don’t mind other people’s business” and “Whoever gets elected won’t do China any good, so why care?”
US citizens of Chinese descent could tip the scales in the US presidential elections. Georgia, for example, is home to over 80,000 eligible voters with roots in the People’s Republic. Georgia is one of the contested swing states where reliable predictions are virtually impossible. Fewer than 12,000 votes went to the Democrats in the 2020 election.
This year’s head-to-head race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could also be decided in Georgia and again by a margin of just under five figures. Whoever wins the majority of Chinese votes may secure a job in the White House.
Trump’s advantage: He enjoys the support of a medium with at least its ethnic roots in the People’s Republic – The Epoch Times. The newspaper was founded in 2000 as a non-profit mouthpiece for followers of the religious Falun Gong movement and is now one of Trump’s most loyal supporters. Its founder Li Honghzi has lived in the USA since 1998. Back in 2016, the paper stood loyally by the eventual election winner.
The political arm of Falun Gong views Trump as an ally in its fight against the Chinese government. In 1999, the Communist Party branded Falun Gong an “evil cult” and banned it in China. Even though the group did not formulate any political goals beyond its official recognition, the government was alarmed by its pull. By this time, the movement had already gained 70 million followers. The government persecuted its supporters and sent them to labor camps or prisons.
Part of Epoch Media is the radio network Sound of Hope and the broadcaster New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD). By its own account, the media company is the fourth largest in the United States by subscriptions and is active in 35 countries and 22 languages.
The Epoch Times’ affinity for Trump came about during the 2016 US election campaign, when Trump was already using rhetoric that was highly critical of China. Over the years, The Epoch Times invested several million US dollars in advertising for the Republicans on social media. It did so in secret, but was exposed as a generous donor in 2019.
Support for Trump has not changed. A former employee of the medium told The Diplomat magazine that the Epoch Times editorial team “has an almost ‘messianic’ way of viewing Donald Trump.” Especially as it does not refrain from delving into the cosmos of conspiracy theories. Epoch Times-affiliated publications, shows and outlets have spread the QAnon conspiracy theory, as well as twisted claims about election fraud and the January 6, 2021, storming of the US Capitol.
The Epoch Times did not respond to questions from Table.Briefings. It generally avoids contact with the press, but is also currently facing allegations of involvement in a criminal money laundering scheme. In June, New York prosecutors charged the organization’s financial planner, Bill Guan Weidong, with laundering at least 67 million US dollars. According to the Department of Justice, the alleged fraud scheme began in 2020 – while the Epoch Times’ revenue had grown from 15 million dollars the previous year to over 60 million dollars. Guan had previously claimed the windfall was due to an increase in subscriptions and donations.
However, the company did suffer a considerable loss of attention during this period. In December 2019, Facebook deleted hundreds of Epoch Times accounts and banned all advertising on the portal. The number of followers shrank significantly from over 50 million to just under 9 million.
All this raises doubts as to whether The Epoch Times could actually mobilize a large number of voters of Chinese descent to vote for Trump. Especially as its staunchly right-wing stance and the spread of conspiracy myths are not only gaining sympathy among Chinese migrants – the Chinese community in the US is too diverse.
The voting preferences of the Chinese-American community remain unclear because “deep political divisions across generations, professions, proximity to immigration, gender, and education level” encourage different voting behavior, writes the US political magazine Foreign Policy. As with other Asian-American populations, many Chinese do not have a long family tradition of voting Republican or Democrat, resulting in weaker party loyalty. Margit Hildebrandt
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
A bird’s eye view of white cranes resting: The photo shows part of a flock of over 500 birds. The picture was taken over the Wolong wetland in Shenyang in the north-eastern province of Liaoning. White cranes are endangered. Every year, around 2,000 of them spend part of the year in Wolong. What makes them so unique compared to other crane species is that they lack pigment-forming cells.
