A news report from Monday shows just how much the current Communist Party Congress is affecting other things in China: At the start of the week, the National Bureau of Statistics unexpectedly postponed the publication of the latest economic figures. The figures include gross domestic product, industrial production, retail sales and the unemployment rate. Read in our News section what role the Party Congress plays in this.
Meanwhile, an appalling incident occurred in Manchester. Employees of the Chinese consulate violently attacked peaceful protesters from Hong Kong. Marcel Grzanna has taken a closer look at the background – and uncovers shocking details: China’s diplomats deliberately stir up fear among Hong Kong exiles. In some countries, Chinese police units are even active. Including in Germany.
EU foreign ministers in Brussels are looking for a suitable response to China’s growing influence in the world. Amelie Richter took a look at the meeting surrounding the EU’s China strategy and spotted a clear trend: Brussels clearly steers towards increasing confrontation with Beijing. Especially the assessment of the European External Action Service leaves no room for doubt.
And finally, I would like to draw your attention to today’s guest article by Susanne Weigelin-Schwiedrzik. In it, the sinologist from the University of Vienna analyzes China’s position in the Ukraine war and comes to the conclusion that Beijing firmly takes the middle position. But the time to act has not yet come for Beijing.
Activists and British politicians have called for a full investigation into a violent attack by Chinese consulate staff at a protest in Manchester. Hong Kong protesters had unfurled posters and shouted slogans outside the building on Sunday in protest against Communist Party rule. In parallel, the 20th Communist Party Congress started in Beijing.
Videos posted on social media show several men grabbing a banner mocking China’s President Xi Jinping and dragging one of the protesters into the consulate grounds, where they kicked and punched him, all in front of several local police officers. The scene only quieted down after British police officers dragged the man, who was lying on the ground, from the consulate grounds back onto the public street.
The escalation worries Hong Kong activists around the globe. Ray Wong, the founder of the association Freiheit für Hongkong (Freedom for Hong Kong), demands that “those thugs hiding in the Chinese Consulate must be arrested and punished!” The group’s protest, he says, was loud but within the bounds of civil liberties before Chinese diplomats began using force.
For the former Hong Kong local politician, who fled to exile in Germany in 2019 after the introduction of the National Security Law in his home country, the incident is symbolic of a dangerous development. “It shows that employees of Chinese embassies and consulates are increasingly confident that they can do whatever they want in other countries,” Wong told China.Table.
The police in Manchester announced an investigation into the incident. To free the activist, at least two officers entered the consulate premises a few meters. However, international conventions stipulate that police officers may only enter the premises of a consulate or embassy with the explicit consent of diplomatic staff. “Officers were present and responded immediately to defuse the situation,” the statement said.
Several UK MPs expressed outrage on Twitter. “The UK Government must demand a full apology from the Chinese Ambassador to the UK and demand those responsible are sent home to China,” wrote ruling Conservative Party MP Iain Duncan Smith. Tory MP Alicia Kearns also called on authorities to urgently investigate the matter. “If any official has beaten protesters, they must be expelled or prosecuted,” Kearns demanded.
Former Hong Kong MP Ted Hui, who now lives in Australia, meanwhile warns against the inconsistent approach by British authorities to the investigation of the case. “It is a serious warning for liberal democracies against continued disregard for laws and rules by the Communist Party regime not only internationally but also locally,” Hui told China.Table. Hong Kong exiles fear that in the future they will have to live in fear of being abducted by Chinese authorities and taken to China, even abroad, if the consulate officials responsible are not held accountable.
Hong Kong activist and lobbyist Nathan Law urged the British government on Twitter to “investigate and protect our community and the people of the United Kingdom.”
A spokesperson for China’s foreign office said Monday that Chinese embassies and consulates have always abided by the laws of the countries in which they are based. He refused to comment on the Manchester incident due to a lack of information. However, he appealed to British authorities to help facilitate the work of the Chinese embassy and consulates in the UK in accordance with the Vienna Conventions.
The human rights organization Safeguard Defenders already reported a few weeks ago about the increasing operations of Chinese police units overseas. Through so-called “police service stations” in other countries, and in close cooperation with Chinese state organizations of the United Front such as the Overseas Chinese Federation (COCF), security forces coordinated the search for Chinese expatriates whom they wanted to persuade to return to the People’s Republic.
According to the Safeguard Defender, 54 stations in 30 countries have already been identified. Chinese security forces are also particularly active in the European Union. In Spain alone, there are said to be nine such stations. In Germany, the police operate at least one branch office in Frankfurt.
And indeed, authorities in the UK seem to have recognized the growing danger to activists. “At our last event on October 1, there was a lot of police protection. That was not always the case,” Rahima Mahmut, Director of the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) in London, told China.Table.
At the protest, Uyghurs, along with Tibetans, Hong Kong activists and British supporters, marched to the Chinese Embassy to hold a rally. The high police presence provided additional security for marchers. In 2015, by contrast, a Chinese dissident and two Tibetans had been arrested by police on the sidelines of Xi Jinping’s state visit to London for protesting against him.
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is meeting in Beijing – and the future orientation of the People’s Republic also plays a key role some 8,000 kilometers to the west. The EU will initially continue to use its familiar triad of “partner-competitor-system-rival” in this form, said EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell on Monday after the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. The middle part of the term “competitor” will become more important, Borrell said. Because that was how China currently acts, he said. “We cannot pretend that China does not exist,” he stressed.
EU foreign ministers previously discussed the EU-China strategy and a new assessment by the European External Action Service (EEAS) for the first time in some time. The speech of China’s President Xi Jinping was also discussed at the Foreign Council, according to Borrell. The speech had shown how China would continue to “intervene” in world affairs. Last week, the EU foreign chief caused a stir with far harsher statements (China.Table reported). “China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there,” Borrell warned.
A week later, Borrell sounds less fervent. However, the trend is clear here as well: It moves toward increased confrontation with Beijing. Where possible, however, cooperation must continue, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, among others, stressed after the meeting. On Thursday, relations with Asia will be on the agenda of the EU summit of heads of state and government – but it is not yet clear what part China will play.
It is also still open whether the assessment of the European External Action Service will be discussed at the summit. In the paper, the EEAS recommends a much tougher line toward the People’s Republic, saying it should be viewed entirely as a competitor with only limited areas for potential cooperation. “China has become an even stronger global competitor for the EU, the US and other like-minded partners,” the text states. The EEAS assessment thus underscores the remarkable deterioration in relations between Brussels and Beijing since the 2019 China strategy was drafted.
The Taiwan issue, in particular, has had “a very disruptive impact on EU-China relations.” The solution must be to “focus on de-escalation and deterrence to prevent the erosion of the status quo,” the Foreign Service advises. But China’s “dismantling of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong,” the crackdown on human rights defenders, and serious human rights violations are also signals of “increased political compartmentalization and state-led interventionism,” the Foreign Service warns.
Brussels should also strengthen its strategy toward third countries, especially in the global South. China believes that the current world order is “not adapted to the reality” of developing countries, the EEAS paper stresses. That means China will support positions “opposite to those of the EU in multilateral forums,” it says. This was already evident in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China.Table reported).
In the battle of the narratives, the EU urgently needs to increase its outreach “to point out contradictions and risks” in China’s representations. The Global Gateway infrastructure initiative could be key to this, according to EEAS. “We need to be clear that Chinese offers to its partners continue to have great appeal. The EU should make a better offer by delivering on its own promises,” the paper stresses.
The Foreign Service also makes recommendations that are not entirely new in Brussels: The EU should cooperate more closely with the US and improve its defenses against cyber and hybrid threats. The EEAS has long been awaiting a mandate from the EU Commission to tackle Chinese disinformation with its own task force.
In addition, supply chains need to be more diversified and relationships with countries in the And Pacific region need to be strengthened, the assessment says. The EU’s dependence on China in semiconductors and certain rare earth metals is identified as a “strategic vulnerability” in the paper, which calls for more domestic production and other initiatives such as better recycling across the EU. The five-page document contains only one paragraph on areas of what it calls “areas of limited potential co-operation” with China: climate, environment and health.
The EU must express a united message to China, the EEAS stressed in its assessment. Observers on Monday also saw this as a hint for Berlin. There, Chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares for his first trip to Beijing. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is also expected to head to the People’s Republic soon. “When it comes to the visits, it is useful to have a common message – even if we do not speak with one voice, it has to be one message,” South China Morning Post quotes an EU diplomat as saying. Whether Berlin will also see China primarily as a “competitor” remains to be seen.
China plans to increase its coal production by 2025. Ren Jindong, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, announced this on Monday at a press conference at the Communist Party Congress. Specifically, the goal was an increase in production to up to 4.6 billion tons. Compared to the previous year, this would represent a 12 percent increase.
The increase is intended to avoid power supply outages like the one in the summer, when drought in southwest China caused hydropower plants to generate less electricity. Ren also said that the exploration of oil and gas reserves should be vigorously pursued.
Ren’s statements on Monday sparked fears among environmental experts that China’s carbon emissions could rise even faster than previously calculated by 2030. The People’s Republic is already the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
During his speech at the current Party Congress in Beijing, President Xi Jinping announced a mix of renewable and fossil fuels. “Coal will be used in a cleaner and more efficient way and we will speed up the planning and development of new energy systems,” Xi said. In doing so, Xi wants to follow the principle: Get the new before throwing away the old. According to the current Five-Year Plan, China aims to meet about 20 percent of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2025 and about 25 percent by 2030.
Most recently, China has raised about half of the global investment in wind and solar energy projects. Nevertheless, coal is expected to provide 60 percent of China’s electricity demand in the near future. rad
On October 12, 2022, the UN General Assembly held a vote on the annexation of the four territories partially occupied by Russia on the Russian-Ukrainian border. 143 countries voted in favor of the resolution, 35 countries abstained, and 5 countries, including Russia, of course, voted against it. China abstained from the vote. How could this happen, when the People’s Republic emphasized from the very first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that it considers the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity to be indisputable? Would this vote not have been the moment for China to demonstrate its clear opposition to Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity?
A press conference held by the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in this regard: “We believe that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected, that the purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be observed, that the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously, and that all efforts conducive to peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported. As a responsible major country, China has all along been committed to promoting peace talks. We are never a bystander, and we would never add fuel to the fire, still less exploit the crisis.”
The Foreign Ministry’s statement is no more clear than the various statements we have heard since the first day of the war, which the US and EU countries have interpreted as the expression of China’s support for Russia. The statement is crafted from the same linguistic fabric as previous statements. Only the order has changed.
In the statement of the Foreign Ministry on February 24, 2022, the first point was the understanding for Russia’s approach, which was a reaction to the eastward expansion of NATO. This time, NATO’s eastward expansion is no longer mentioned, and instead only the legitimate security interests are referred to. However, this pro-Russian phrase comes after, not before, the phrase calling for the preservation of sovereignty and territorial integrity and supporting Ukraine. In the last sentence, China underlines its own position as a “responsible major country.” In the Chinese context, this means that anyone who takes a “middle” position is not neutral, but responsible. They are called upon to master a balancing act by sending positive signals to both sides so that neither side is hurt. For this reason, criticism is not appropriate either.
This form of diplomacy is familiar to those acquainted with Chinese history, which is characterized by the permanent balancing act between different factions at court. The fact that it is met with a lack of comprehension outside China is certainly not only due to ignorance, but also to the fact that a possible moderating role by China in future negotiations on ending the war is not desired by either the United States or Russia. So the question arises as to why China insists on this middle position?
China signed a treaty with Ukraine in 2013, which stipulates that the two countries will support each other in protecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their respective countries. In the event of a nuclear threat, China assured Ukraine that it will take action in accordance with UN procedures. Ukraine is China’s main partner in the Belt and Road Initiative, and there is intensive cooperation between Ukrainian and Chinese engineers in developing China’s military capacity. China, in turn, is linked to Russia through a strategic partnership, which Xi Jinping in particular repeatedly praises and most recently flaunted to the world during Putin’s visit at the opening of the Olympic Games.
Furthermore, the CCP does not like to make political decisions that give a bad impression of the party’s analytical capabilities. Should it side with Russia and Russia turned out to be the loser, it would look very bad for the CCP and its judgment.
After all, we saw just recently that the top leadership of the CCP is divided. The third man in the state, Li Zhanshu, traveled to Moscow and spoke to members of the Duma behind closed doors. His remarks were recorded and leaked. This revealed that he expressed to Russian deputies China’s full understanding of Russia’s actions against Ukraine and announced that they were ready to coordinate with Russia. Around the same time, Xi Jinping attended the meeting of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Samarkand. Xi had to leave the meeting early and was not seen for ten days thereafter, as, incidentally, was Mr. Li Zhanshu after his return from Moscow.
The other side of the political spectrum made its appearance when Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a speech at the UN in which he spoke only about peaceful efforts. Russia and its concerns were not mentioned in a single sentence. The forces within the CP leadership that think differently than Mr. Li Zhanshu insist on the middle position as a compromise: When Li Zhanshu did not keep this compromise, it was probably assumed that Xi Jinping gave him the green light to do so. According to Chinese logic, however, even the Party Chairman must not deviate from a compromise once it has been reached. That is why Xi had to fly back home so soon.
So far, the leadership of the PRC has kept a low profile regarding peace mediation. It waits for an opportunity to successfully intervene. But the time is not yet ripe. The level of suffering still needs to grow. Three scenarios are possible: The time will come when even the actually stronger party in an asymmetrical war will be so exhausted that it will seek negotiations before it is too late. This situation has not yet materialized, although statements on the need for negotiations have been heard repeatedly from Moscow in recent days. The main reason is that the Ukrainian side is not willing to negotiate at present, and the US also wants to keep the war going for as long as it takes to weaken Russia so that it cannot wage war in its neighborhood.
The second scenario is a war of attrition. It is a terrible lot for the soldiers on both sides and also for the civilian population, and although it should be avoided for this very reason, many historical examples show that the wear and fatigue of both sides can one day lead to a willingness to talk.
A third scenario remains, but it is not openly discussed in China: Due to inflation and energy shortages, people in the rich West as well as in the global South will sooner or later take to the streets, and conditions will significantly destabilize. In this situation, those involved only indirectly would beg for the war to end.
Regardless of which scenario occurs, China knows that it needs to keep its ace up its sleeve. It negotiates behind the scenes, chooses its words carefully, but it does not take a decisive step to the edge of the stage. After all, the ultimate goal is to gain from the situation: If China were to successfully involve itself in the negotiations, it would have strengthened its position as a responsible major power and positioned itself well on the global stage.
Susanne Weigelin-Schwiedrzik is a Professor of Sinology at the University of Vienna and Program Director China at the Center for Strategic Analysis. Her research focuses on history and historiography in China with an emphasis on contemporary history, analysis of domestic and foreign policy, and international relations with an emphasis on East Asia.
Harbingers of Nesat: A man surfs the rough waves heralding the typhoon at Big Wave Bay in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory issued warnings earlier this week that Typhoon Nesat is moving closer to the Guangdong coast. According to the report, the storm could also hit Hong Kong.
A news report from Monday shows just how much the current Communist Party Congress is affecting other things in China: At the start of the week, the National Bureau of Statistics unexpectedly postponed the publication of the latest economic figures. The figures include gross domestic product, industrial production, retail sales and the unemployment rate. Read in our News section what role the Party Congress plays in this.
Meanwhile, an appalling incident occurred in Manchester. Employees of the Chinese consulate violently attacked peaceful protesters from Hong Kong. Marcel Grzanna has taken a closer look at the background – and uncovers shocking details: China’s diplomats deliberately stir up fear among Hong Kong exiles. In some countries, Chinese police units are even active. Including in Germany.
EU foreign ministers in Brussels are looking for a suitable response to China’s growing influence in the world. Amelie Richter took a look at the meeting surrounding the EU’s China strategy and spotted a clear trend: Brussels clearly steers towards increasing confrontation with Beijing. Especially the assessment of the European External Action Service leaves no room for doubt.
And finally, I would like to draw your attention to today’s guest article by Susanne Weigelin-Schwiedrzik. In it, the sinologist from the University of Vienna analyzes China’s position in the Ukraine war and comes to the conclusion that Beijing firmly takes the middle position. But the time to act has not yet come for Beijing.
Activists and British politicians have called for a full investigation into a violent attack by Chinese consulate staff at a protest in Manchester. Hong Kong protesters had unfurled posters and shouted slogans outside the building on Sunday in protest against Communist Party rule. In parallel, the 20th Communist Party Congress started in Beijing.
Videos posted on social media show several men grabbing a banner mocking China’s President Xi Jinping and dragging one of the protesters into the consulate grounds, where they kicked and punched him, all in front of several local police officers. The scene only quieted down after British police officers dragged the man, who was lying on the ground, from the consulate grounds back onto the public street.
The escalation worries Hong Kong activists around the globe. Ray Wong, the founder of the association Freiheit für Hongkong (Freedom for Hong Kong), demands that “those thugs hiding in the Chinese Consulate must be arrested and punished!” The group’s protest, he says, was loud but within the bounds of civil liberties before Chinese diplomats began using force.
For the former Hong Kong local politician, who fled to exile in Germany in 2019 after the introduction of the National Security Law in his home country, the incident is symbolic of a dangerous development. “It shows that employees of Chinese embassies and consulates are increasingly confident that they can do whatever they want in other countries,” Wong told China.Table.
The police in Manchester announced an investigation into the incident. To free the activist, at least two officers entered the consulate premises a few meters. However, international conventions stipulate that police officers may only enter the premises of a consulate or embassy with the explicit consent of diplomatic staff. “Officers were present and responded immediately to defuse the situation,” the statement said.
Several UK MPs expressed outrage on Twitter. “The UK Government must demand a full apology from the Chinese Ambassador to the UK and demand those responsible are sent home to China,” wrote ruling Conservative Party MP Iain Duncan Smith. Tory MP Alicia Kearns also called on authorities to urgently investigate the matter. “If any official has beaten protesters, they must be expelled or prosecuted,” Kearns demanded.
Former Hong Kong MP Ted Hui, who now lives in Australia, meanwhile warns against the inconsistent approach by British authorities to the investigation of the case. “It is a serious warning for liberal democracies against continued disregard for laws and rules by the Communist Party regime not only internationally but also locally,” Hui told China.Table. Hong Kong exiles fear that in the future they will have to live in fear of being abducted by Chinese authorities and taken to China, even abroad, if the consulate officials responsible are not held accountable.
Hong Kong activist and lobbyist Nathan Law urged the British government on Twitter to “investigate and protect our community and the people of the United Kingdom.”
A spokesperson for China’s foreign office said Monday that Chinese embassies and consulates have always abided by the laws of the countries in which they are based. He refused to comment on the Manchester incident due to a lack of information. However, he appealed to British authorities to help facilitate the work of the Chinese embassy and consulates in the UK in accordance with the Vienna Conventions.
The human rights organization Safeguard Defenders already reported a few weeks ago about the increasing operations of Chinese police units overseas. Through so-called “police service stations” in other countries, and in close cooperation with Chinese state organizations of the United Front such as the Overseas Chinese Federation (COCF), security forces coordinated the search for Chinese expatriates whom they wanted to persuade to return to the People’s Republic.
According to the Safeguard Defender, 54 stations in 30 countries have already been identified. Chinese security forces are also particularly active in the European Union. In Spain alone, there are said to be nine such stations. In Germany, the police operate at least one branch office in Frankfurt.
And indeed, authorities in the UK seem to have recognized the growing danger to activists. “At our last event on October 1, there was a lot of police protection. That was not always the case,” Rahima Mahmut, Director of the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) in London, told China.Table.
At the protest, Uyghurs, along with Tibetans, Hong Kong activists and British supporters, marched to the Chinese Embassy to hold a rally. The high police presence provided additional security for marchers. In 2015, by contrast, a Chinese dissident and two Tibetans had been arrested by police on the sidelines of Xi Jinping’s state visit to London for protesting against him.
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is meeting in Beijing – and the future orientation of the People’s Republic also plays a key role some 8,000 kilometers to the west. The EU will initially continue to use its familiar triad of “partner-competitor-system-rival” in this form, said EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell on Monday after the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. The middle part of the term “competitor” will become more important, Borrell said. Because that was how China currently acts, he said. “We cannot pretend that China does not exist,” he stressed.
EU foreign ministers previously discussed the EU-China strategy and a new assessment by the European External Action Service (EEAS) for the first time in some time. The speech of China’s President Xi Jinping was also discussed at the Foreign Council, according to Borrell. The speech had shown how China would continue to “intervene” in world affairs. Last week, the EU foreign chief caused a stir with far harsher statements (China.Table reported). “China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there,” Borrell warned.
A week later, Borrell sounds less fervent. However, the trend is clear here as well: It moves toward increased confrontation with Beijing. Where possible, however, cooperation must continue, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, among others, stressed after the meeting. On Thursday, relations with Asia will be on the agenda of the EU summit of heads of state and government – but it is not yet clear what part China will play.
It is also still open whether the assessment of the European External Action Service will be discussed at the summit. In the paper, the EEAS recommends a much tougher line toward the People’s Republic, saying it should be viewed entirely as a competitor with only limited areas for potential cooperation. “China has become an even stronger global competitor for the EU, the US and other like-minded partners,” the text states. The EEAS assessment thus underscores the remarkable deterioration in relations between Brussels and Beijing since the 2019 China strategy was drafted.
The Taiwan issue, in particular, has had “a very disruptive impact on EU-China relations.” The solution must be to “focus on de-escalation and deterrence to prevent the erosion of the status quo,” the Foreign Service advises. But China’s “dismantling of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong,” the crackdown on human rights defenders, and serious human rights violations are also signals of “increased political compartmentalization and state-led interventionism,” the Foreign Service warns.
Brussels should also strengthen its strategy toward third countries, especially in the global South. China believes that the current world order is “not adapted to the reality” of developing countries, the EEAS paper stresses. That means China will support positions “opposite to those of the EU in multilateral forums,” it says. This was already evident in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China.Table reported).
In the battle of the narratives, the EU urgently needs to increase its outreach “to point out contradictions and risks” in China’s representations. The Global Gateway infrastructure initiative could be key to this, according to EEAS. “We need to be clear that Chinese offers to its partners continue to have great appeal. The EU should make a better offer by delivering on its own promises,” the paper stresses.
The Foreign Service also makes recommendations that are not entirely new in Brussels: The EU should cooperate more closely with the US and improve its defenses against cyber and hybrid threats. The EEAS has long been awaiting a mandate from the EU Commission to tackle Chinese disinformation with its own task force.
In addition, supply chains need to be more diversified and relationships with countries in the And Pacific region need to be strengthened, the assessment says. The EU’s dependence on China in semiconductors and certain rare earth metals is identified as a “strategic vulnerability” in the paper, which calls for more domestic production and other initiatives such as better recycling across the EU. The five-page document contains only one paragraph on areas of what it calls “areas of limited potential co-operation” with China: climate, environment and health.
The EU must express a united message to China, the EEAS stressed in its assessment. Observers on Monday also saw this as a hint for Berlin. There, Chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares for his first trip to Beijing. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is also expected to head to the People’s Republic soon. “When it comes to the visits, it is useful to have a common message – even if we do not speak with one voice, it has to be one message,” South China Morning Post quotes an EU diplomat as saying. Whether Berlin will also see China primarily as a “competitor” remains to be seen.
China plans to increase its coal production by 2025. Ren Jindong, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, announced this on Monday at a press conference at the Communist Party Congress. Specifically, the goal was an increase in production to up to 4.6 billion tons. Compared to the previous year, this would represent a 12 percent increase.
The increase is intended to avoid power supply outages like the one in the summer, when drought in southwest China caused hydropower plants to generate less electricity. Ren also said that the exploration of oil and gas reserves should be vigorously pursued.
Ren’s statements on Monday sparked fears among environmental experts that China’s carbon emissions could rise even faster than previously calculated by 2030. The People’s Republic is already the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
During his speech at the current Party Congress in Beijing, President Xi Jinping announced a mix of renewable and fossil fuels. “Coal will be used in a cleaner and more efficient way and we will speed up the planning and development of new energy systems,” Xi said. In doing so, Xi wants to follow the principle: Get the new before throwing away the old. According to the current Five-Year Plan, China aims to meet about 20 percent of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2025 and about 25 percent by 2030.
Most recently, China has raised about half of the global investment in wind and solar energy projects. Nevertheless, coal is expected to provide 60 percent of China’s electricity demand in the near future. rad
On October 12, 2022, the UN General Assembly held a vote on the annexation of the four territories partially occupied by Russia on the Russian-Ukrainian border. 143 countries voted in favor of the resolution, 35 countries abstained, and 5 countries, including Russia, of course, voted against it. China abstained from the vote. How could this happen, when the People’s Republic emphasized from the very first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that it considers the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity to be indisputable? Would this vote not have been the moment for China to demonstrate its clear opposition to Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity?
A press conference held by the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in this regard: “We believe that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected, that the purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be observed, that the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously, and that all efforts conducive to peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported. As a responsible major country, China has all along been committed to promoting peace talks. We are never a bystander, and we would never add fuel to the fire, still less exploit the crisis.”
The Foreign Ministry’s statement is no more clear than the various statements we have heard since the first day of the war, which the US and EU countries have interpreted as the expression of China’s support for Russia. The statement is crafted from the same linguistic fabric as previous statements. Only the order has changed.
In the statement of the Foreign Ministry on February 24, 2022, the first point was the understanding for Russia’s approach, which was a reaction to the eastward expansion of NATO. This time, NATO’s eastward expansion is no longer mentioned, and instead only the legitimate security interests are referred to. However, this pro-Russian phrase comes after, not before, the phrase calling for the preservation of sovereignty and territorial integrity and supporting Ukraine. In the last sentence, China underlines its own position as a “responsible major country.” In the Chinese context, this means that anyone who takes a “middle” position is not neutral, but responsible. They are called upon to master a balancing act by sending positive signals to both sides so that neither side is hurt. For this reason, criticism is not appropriate either.
This form of diplomacy is familiar to those acquainted with Chinese history, which is characterized by the permanent balancing act between different factions at court. The fact that it is met with a lack of comprehension outside China is certainly not only due to ignorance, but also to the fact that a possible moderating role by China in future negotiations on ending the war is not desired by either the United States or Russia. So the question arises as to why China insists on this middle position?
China signed a treaty with Ukraine in 2013, which stipulates that the two countries will support each other in protecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their respective countries. In the event of a nuclear threat, China assured Ukraine that it will take action in accordance with UN procedures. Ukraine is China’s main partner in the Belt and Road Initiative, and there is intensive cooperation between Ukrainian and Chinese engineers in developing China’s military capacity. China, in turn, is linked to Russia through a strategic partnership, which Xi Jinping in particular repeatedly praises and most recently flaunted to the world during Putin’s visit at the opening of the Olympic Games.
Furthermore, the CCP does not like to make political decisions that give a bad impression of the party’s analytical capabilities. Should it side with Russia and Russia turned out to be the loser, it would look very bad for the CCP and its judgment.
After all, we saw just recently that the top leadership of the CCP is divided. The third man in the state, Li Zhanshu, traveled to Moscow and spoke to members of the Duma behind closed doors. His remarks were recorded and leaked. This revealed that he expressed to Russian deputies China’s full understanding of Russia’s actions against Ukraine and announced that they were ready to coordinate with Russia. Around the same time, Xi Jinping attended the meeting of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Samarkand. Xi had to leave the meeting early and was not seen for ten days thereafter, as, incidentally, was Mr. Li Zhanshu after his return from Moscow.
The other side of the political spectrum made its appearance when Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a speech at the UN in which he spoke only about peaceful efforts. Russia and its concerns were not mentioned in a single sentence. The forces within the CP leadership that think differently than Mr. Li Zhanshu insist on the middle position as a compromise: When Li Zhanshu did not keep this compromise, it was probably assumed that Xi Jinping gave him the green light to do so. According to Chinese logic, however, even the Party Chairman must not deviate from a compromise once it has been reached. That is why Xi had to fly back home so soon.
So far, the leadership of the PRC has kept a low profile regarding peace mediation. It waits for an opportunity to successfully intervene. But the time is not yet ripe. The level of suffering still needs to grow. Three scenarios are possible: The time will come when even the actually stronger party in an asymmetrical war will be so exhausted that it will seek negotiations before it is too late. This situation has not yet materialized, although statements on the need for negotiations have been heard repeatedly from Moscow in recent days. The main reason is that the Ukrainian side is not willing to negotiate at present, and the US also wants to keep the war going for as long as it takes to weaken Russia so that it cannot wage war in its neighborhood.
The second scenario is a war of attrition. It is a terrible lot for the soldiers on both sides and also for the civilian population, and although it should be avoided for this very reason, many historical examples show that the wear and fatigue of both sides can one day lead to a willingness to talk.
A third scenario remains, but it is not openly discussed in China: Due to inflation and energy shortages, people in the rich West as well as in the global South will sooner or later take to the streets, and conditions will significantly destabilize. In this situation, those involved only indirectly would beg for the war to end.
Regardless of which scenario occurs, China knows that it needs to keep its ace up its sleeve. It negotiates behind the scenes, chooses its words carefully, but it does not take a decisive step to the edge of the stage. After all, the ultimate goal is to gain from the situation: If China were to successfully involve itself in the negotiations, it would have strengthened its position as a responsible major power and positioned itself well on the global stage.
Susanne Weigelin-Schwiedrzik is a Professor of Sinology at the University of Vienna and Program Director China at the Center for Strategic Analysis. Her research focuses on history and historiography in China with an emphasis on contemporary history, analysis of domestic and foreign policy, and international relations with an emphasis on East Asia.
Harbingers of Nesat: A man surfs the rough waves heralding the typhoon at Big Wave Bay in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory issued warnings earlier this week that Typhoon Nesat is moving closer to the Guangdong coast. According to the report, the storm could also hit Hong Kong.
