The UN General Assembly is a good opportunity for high-level political talks. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi used his stay in New York for a confidential meeting with his counterpart from the Solomon Islands. Relationship-building is important because China has a special interest in the Solomon Islands, as became very clear nearly five months ago when a security agreement between the two countries caused much discussion. A draft of the secret paper had been leaked to the public, which fueled suspicions that China might be planning to establish a permanent military presence in the island nation. Since then, it has become quiet around the matter. But it is a deceptive silence, analyzes Michael Radunski. He explains how the People’s Republic is continuously expanding its influence over the island nation.
China also exerts its influence all too eagerly at the UN Human Rights Council. Marcel Grzanna takes a look at the sometimes extremely dubious methods Beijing uses to prevent criticism. Do you know what “gongos” are? It sounds bizarre, and it is. “Governmental Organized Non-Governmental Organizations” are organizations funded, supported, or even founded by the state that seem to be independent, but in reality represent government interests. China has registered 40 such organizations for the UN Human Rights Council alone. And why? So that genuine non-governmental organizations will have fewer chances to use the sparse speaking time for criticism of the human rights situation in Xinjiang and other issues.
World leaders are currently meeting in New York for the UN General Assembly. On Saturday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi will speak on behalf of China. But Wang has already been very active in the days leading up to his speech. On Wednesday, he met Jeremiah Manele, Foreign Minister of the Solomon Islands, for confidential talks. Wang praised China-Solomon Islands relations, highlighting the achievement of impressive results in the past three years. China has always been a trustworthy friend of the Solomon Islands, he said and will continue to help where it can.
But this friendship has not existed all that long. China and the Solomon Islands have only had diplomatic relations since 2019. Beijing was not interested in the island state until Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare decided to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
In New York, Wang stressed that the facts show impressively that the decision to establish diplomatic relations between China and the Solomon Islands is already paying off. China appreciates the Solomon Island’s efforts to adhere to independence and self-determination and chooses its own development path, he said.
This development path has made the Pacific nation between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu the latest stage in the geopolitical power struggle between China and the United States.
A few weeks ago, the crews of the British patrol boat HMS Spey and the US Coast Guard’s Oliver Henry bore the consequences. As part of Operation Island Chief against illegal fishing in the region, the two boats wanted to make a routine stop in the Solomon Islands. But they were banned from entering (China.Table reported). The reason given by Prime Minister Sogavare was that they had not submitted the necessary documents in time.
Malcolm Davis thinks this is a flimsy explanation. “I suspect that Sogavare did this because of China’s urging,” the analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra tells China.Table. It is a test, he said. “Beijing will now closely monitor the international reaction. It will adjust next steps on how they can use Sogavare in the future to deny freedom of navigation to the US and allied naval vessels.”
Sogavare attempted to counter this impression when he stated a few days later that the government would generally review the permit requirements and procedures for visiting military vessels in the Solomon Islands. In other words, it is supposed to be a general docking moratorium for foreign ships. The problem: Sogavare announced the moratorium at the welcoming ceremony of the USS Mercy, a giant hospital ship of the US Navy.
A denied port entry for a US military ship is not yet a cause for great concern. Davis, however, identifies other “alarming developments” that show how China continues to expand its influence in the Solomon Islands: Sogavare recently accepted an offer from Chinese technology company Huawei to build hundreds of cell towers. Critics see this as a gateway for Chinese surveillance technology. And the money for the project – nearly $100 million – is also coming from Beijing, as of a loan the Solomon Islands is borrowing from China. In addition, it became known that Sogavare is said to have arranged dubious payments to several parliamentarians. Opposition leader Matthew Wale claims that Sogavare received the money from the Chinese leadership. In any case, the domestic political pressure on the Prime Minister is immense.
Appropriately, Sogavare also postponed next year’s parliamentary elections. He explained that the Solomon Islands would already be hosting the 17th Pacific Games in 2023. Unfortunately, both would not be possible. A new stadium is built in the capital Honiara for the sporting event – paid for and constructed by China.
Malcolm Davis is convinced: by postponing the election, Sogavare is trying to stay in power beyond his constitutional limits. “He is doing this with Chinese support, including financial support in the form of money cases.” It is a classic horse trade, he said: “Sogavare is to stay in power because he’s loyal to China and willing to give China greater access to the Solomon Islands.” In turn, that is his quid pro quo for China’s support to stay in power, he said
Bryce Wakefield, on the other hand, warns against concluding too quickly. “It’s tempting to frame everything that the Solomon Island government does at the moment in light of its security agreement with Beijing,” the Director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, told news.com.au. Perhaps the Solomon Islands are simply trying to find their place between the two great powers at the moment.
The starting point is the security agreement that China and the Solomon Islands concluded just under five months ago and has been the subject of heated debate ever since. The governments actually wanted to keep the agreement secret, but a draft of the agreement was accidentally leaked to the public. It lists far-reaching concessions to China. The People’s Republic would be allowed to “make ship visits, provide logistical support and have stopovers” as needed and with the Solomon Islands’ consent. Chinese forces would be authorized to protect “the security of Chinese personnel” and “important projects in the Solomon Islands.” It is the legal basis for Chinese security and naval operations in the Pacific nation, which consists of dozens of islands (China.Table reported).
“It’s a dangerous agreement,” Davis judges, explaining: “I think China plans to establish a permanent military presence in the island nation as quickly as possible.” He states Beijing wants to use the Solomon Islands as a stepping stone to expand its influence throughout the Southwest Pacific.
But the West – above all the United States – has also made serious mistakes in its dealings with the Solomon Islands. Although geostrategically important, the Pacific state has been neglected diplomatically for years. And while Ukraine is granted the right to self-determination vis-à-vis Russia, it seems that some US politicians are only too happy to deny the Solomon Islands this right.
But pressure alone will not succeed in pushing back China’s growing influence. Interests and problems must be taken seriously. These are, above all, economic development and overcoming the climate crisis, because the predicted rise in sea level threatens the very existence of states like the Solomon Islands.
Germany, of all countries, has taken the first step here: At the beginning of July, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock traveled to the region and appointed Beate Grzeski as Germany’s first special ambassador for the Pacific island states. The US also plans to show more presence again. It wants to open an embassy in Honiara again – after 29 years.
The moderator of the panel became impatient after two minutes. The employee of the Chinese representation in Geneva had positioned herself in the front row and was now reading out a statement that went on for ages, instead of asking a simple question as intended. The woman was finally asked to please get to the point. But she did not let herself be put off, but stoically recited her manuscript to the end.
Politely, but visibly annoyed, the hosts let the woman go on. Human Rights Watch and the International Service for Human Rights issued invitations aside from the 51st session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva to raise the problem of the Chinese government’s systematic human rights crimes in Xinjiang. The two non-governmental organizations wanted to use the increased global attention on torture, forced labor, and internment of Uyghurs to convey to the global community the urgency for increased action.
But whenever topics that cast Beijing in a bad light come up in the official program of the session or at side events, representatives of the regime are reliably on hand. “Chinese diplomats show up everywhere and occupy public space to take the word of others and loudly spread their own representations,” says Zumretay Arkin. The Canadian with Uyghur roots traveled to Geneva as a spokesperson and lobbyist for the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) and also sat on the panel.
“This is about intimidation,” says Kai Müller of the International Campaign for Tibet (ICT). The Executive Director spoke in person at the Human Rights Council earlier this week and registered how a Chinese diplomat took down his name and that of another ICT staff member present. Yet Müller is truly no stranger to the Chinese. He has been working for ICT for 15 years and lends his voice and face to the organization. His name is known in Geneva, especially by Chinese diplomats. “The intention was that we should definitely see our names written down,” Müller believes.
The message can confidently be understood as a subtle threat to him and all other delegates in the hall. However, the People’s Republic not only wants to intimidate critics in Geneva but is also trying to isolate and marginalize them. To this end, the country is using its influence on the United Nations Economic and Social Council (Ecosog). The body is responsible for accrediting non-governmental organizations to participate in meetings of the Human Rights Council and other UN bodies.
The Chinese representatives there systematically prevent the issuance of approvals to organizations, such as the WUC or the ITC, that China does not approve of. Applications are dragged out for years by constantly raising new, sometimes absurd queries that have to be dealt with by organizations. The interests of the WUC or ITC nevertheless find their way into the plenum because other organizations invite them to do so. For example, Uyghur representatives such as Zumretay Arkin are admitted via the Society for Threatened Peoples from Göttingen. The ICT comes to speak through the Polish Helsinki Foundation.
Nevertheless, the number of accredited organizations for meetings of UN bodies is rising steadily. Over the past 25 years, their number has grown from 1,400 to around 5,000. However, if you look closely, you will see that many of these supposedly non-governmental organizations are by no means independent. On the contrary, they are so-called Gongos (Governmental Organized Non-Governmental Organizations) – i.e. organizations financed, supported, or even founded by the state, which appear under the cloak of independence, but in reality represent Chinese state interests.
The People’s Republic of China has accredited 40 organizations for the Human Rights Council in Geneva alone, although Chinese non-governmental organizations with global reach are practically non-existent. Example: The Chinese Association for the Preservation and Development of Tibetan Culture. By its own account, it is an independent organization whose principle is to “abide by the constitution, laws, regulations and state policies of the People’s Republic of China (…), promote and protect human rights, and strengthen unity, harmony and common prosperity and progress among all ethnic groups in Tibet.”
With such and other gongos, all other non-governmental organizations compete for the sparse speaking time available during the sessions. Those who want to speak have to apply for weeks before the sessions and hope to get a slot distributed at random. The more Chinese gongos apply for speaking time, the smaller the statistical probability that WUC, ICT, or other critical voices will get a chance to speak.
China’s confident demeanor in the hallways of the Human Rights Council and within the body itself is the result of years of lobbying the body and other states. The balance of power in the Council will be put to the test next week when a possible resolution is introduced against the People’s Republic that would decide to establish a mechanism that is independent of China. Frankly, the Council would give a special rapporteur a mandate to monitor the People’s Republic permanently.
China’s influence was also clear weeks before the start of the 51st session. In a Xinjiang report, the then still acting High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, had accused those responsible in Beijing with unprecedented clarity. The paper saw the light of day only on the last day of Bachelet’s term. But apparently only because Bachelet’s staff vehemently pushed for its publication, as first reported by the Financial Times and as a person close to the High Commission confirmed to China.Table.
Bachelet herself reportedly would have preferred not to publish the report. During her tenure, she had apparently concluded that it would be better not to confront China with public accusations. This mindset is also quite common in Germany. Some politicians, entrepreneurs, or scientists believe that things can be straightened out behind closed doors. However, this strategy has proven fruitless for years. Instead of improvement in the human rights situation, the People’s Republic’s record has demonstrably worsened blatantly.
Taiwan plans to end mandatory Covid quarantine for inbound travelers “around October 13.” Further restrictions are to be loosened as early as next week, the government announced Thursday. Previously, inbound travelers still had to isolate themselves from the outside world for three days. Since the beginning of the year, Taiwan has recorded six million Covid infections. For the most part, Omicron cases with more than 99 percent mild symptoms, authorities said.
Visa-free entry for citizens of all countries that previously had this status is to be reinstated starting September 29. The government would also increase the weekly limit on international travelers by 10,000 to 60,000 and no longer conduct PCR tests on entry. When “everything is under control,” the government plans to end mandatory quarantine for all arrivals around October 13, with the number of arrivals increasing to 150,000 per week, a spokesman said. The vaccination rate in Taiwan is very high, and so is the number of new infections. As of Wednesday, 46,000 new cases were reported. nib
EU Foreign Affairs Envoy Josep Borrell has appealed to Beijing at the UN General Assembly to exert influence on Russia to end the war against Ukraine. The Russian invasion has caused a triple crisis worldwide, namely food and energy shortages and financial instability, Borrell told China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York.
Borrell also addressed the precarious situation around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. He warned that a nuclear accident could occur there at any time. Human rights issues were also discussed at the meeting, the European External Action Service said. Among these was the convening of a human rights dialogue between the EU and China to discuss topics of concern. The UN General Assembly is in session until Monday. Wang Yi is on the list of speakers for Saturday. ari
China’s Special Representative for Climate Change Affairs expressed hope during a meeting with his German counterpart Jennifer Morgan that industrialized countries will keep their pledge to transfer $100 billion in climate funds annually to developing countries. The conversation late Wednesday centered on international climate policy and the upcoming World Climate Change Conference, which will be held Nov. 06-18 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
Xie said the climate policies of some European countries have gone into a “backswing.” He said he hopes this is only a temporary stopgap. “Implementation and action” of existing climate goals should be the theme at the climate conference. The State Department refrained from commenting on the meeting. Morgan wrote on Twitter that climate change “is the common existential threat” that unites all UN nations. She stressed the importance of multilateral climate cooperation.
The statements on both sides have a backstory: China likes to present itself as the advocate of developing countries in climate negotiations. By pointing to the lack of commitments, China can score points with these countries and distract from the fact that its own national climate targets do not meet the requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement. Morgan’s reference to climate cooperation can be taken as a reference to China’s withdrawal from climate talks with the United States. Following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the US had withdrawn from bilateral talks formats.
China is experiencing a decline in carbon emissions due to the ongoing economic slump, which has continued for four quarters. But over the last few decades, per capita emissions in China have risen rapidly and now exceed those of the EU. Average emissions per capita in Germany are now just above those in China. Nevertheless, all countries must do more to achieve the climate targets. nib
China’s former Minister of Justice, Fu Zhenghua, has been sentenced to death for corruption. However, the sentence, handed down by a court in Changchun, will not be carried out but will be commuted to life imprisonment. There is no possibility of parole.
Fu Zhenghua previously held several high-ranking positions, including Beijing Police Chief and Vice Minister of Public Security. Over a period of 16 years, he allegedly accepted bribes totaling ¥117 million (€16.7 million). A few months ago, Fu was also accused of being part of a political clique around Sun Lijun. Sun, former Vice Minister of Public Security, who is also under corruption investigation. He is accused of not recognizing Xi Jinping’s authority.
Just on Wednesday, former Shanghai Police Chief Gong Daoan was sentenced to life imprisonment. The former Police Chiefs of Chongqing, Deng Huilin, and Shanxi, Liu Xinyun received prison sentences of 15 and 14 years respectively.
For Xi Jinping, anti-corruption campaigns are an important political tool to ensure his own hold on power. In 2020, the campaign to clean the judicial system began, with more than 170,000 officials and police officers convicted in the past two years. jul
Airbus has received an order worth the equivalent of €4.9 million. The aircraft manufacturer will deliver 40 A320neo aircraft to Xiamen Air. Until now, Xiamen has operated only Boeing aircraft. The aircraft are to be delivered between 2023 and 2027, Bloomberg reports.
Back in July, Airbus signed contracts for a sold aircraft of the same type to four airlines in China worth the equivalent of €37.5 billion (China.Table reported). Airbus operates a final assembly plant in Tianjin, which is contributing to the increase in market share. nib
In difficult times as well as decisive political moments like this year, figures and statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.
China’s economic data is published by several government agencies. Among the most important are the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance and the Customs Administration. The numbers they publish are generally considered trustworthy, except for politically highly sensitive data on the debt situation of local governments.
It is the figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, which are responsible for the bulk of economic statistics, that caused the most frustration.
It is an open secret that the most important statistics have to be approved by the State Council of the People’s Republic before they are published. The last time China vigorously “revised” its economic figures was in 1998 when the Asian crisis and huge floods throughout the region shattered the eight percent growth target announced by the government in Beijing. The National Bureau of Statistics ultimately spoke of a growth rate of 7.8 percent. However, it is estimated that growth was actually between five and six percent.
There are many ways to cook the books. Some economic growth in one quarter could be moved to help a different poor quarter. Statistics as old as ten years ago could potentially be modified to iron out inconsistencies among the figures.
This year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s gross domestic product grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, while the announced growth target for the full year is 5.5 percent. With rampant Covid-triggered lockdowns across the country, a sluggish real estate sector, much subdued private businesses, and lackluster consumer sentiment, the authenticity of this figure is widely doubted.
With the lockdowns getting worse in the second quarter, the market has lost any hope that the yearly target could be met. The government seemed to, in turn, decide not to tinker with the figures (too much) and announce a growth of 0.4 percent for the second quarter
To be fair, the quality of China’s statistics had been improving before the Covid pandemic. The largely meaningless “registered unemployment rate,” which did not take into account China’s enormous population outside the major cities, was replaced by a rate based on surveys of both urban and rural areas. A subcategory was even introduced for the unemployment rate of 16- to 24-year-olds.
The province of Liaoning and the provincial level city of Tianjin were reprimanded for publishing egregiously exaggerated economic statistics to polish the image of the local government leaders.
However, difficulties caused by the Covid pandemic and the running-up to the all-important 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China seemed to have triggered a relapse.
What is particularly frustrating is: whether you believe in the official figures or not, there is no way to prove them. The NBS never reveals its methodology in detail, apparently to give itself some leeway. No other institution has the legitimate mandate or ability to implement a separate system in parallel with the official one.
Taking other official figures for cross-examining is also not always feasible because the NBS doesn’t publish them consistently. For example, the figure for electricity generation, a key barometer for economic activity, has been missing from NBS reports since 2020. Publication of values for the coal price, another indicator, is also suspended as soon as the price is too high.
Third-party institutions may be able to produce some indicators, such as the construction of new infrastructural projects, which could be gathered through satellite images, and total truckload volumes. But the institutions generally don’t dare to publish these figures publicly to avoid contracting the official story. If they do, there could be consequences. The rationale given for the suspension is usually “to take a responsible attitude as the prices fluctuate abnormally.”
In August, an independent research institute published a report on regional real estate vacancy rates based on an independent survey. The report was later retracted under pressure.
Except for a small group of absolutely essential figures such as GDP, price indices and industrial output, the NBS would do cherry-picking for the other figures. Only good-looking ones will appear in its reports.
This resembles a not-so-fun game of hide-and-seek. Observers can only take comfort in the fact that the government’s selection of figures to be published can reflect their policy inclinations.
There is speculation that China has overreported its population growth in the past couple of years. The government has been very reluctant to abandon its one-child policy, even after the birth rate was excessively low. This hesitation could result in a fast aging population, which bodes ill for the economic and social prospects.
China allowed its citizens to have up to two children in 2015 and further raised the quota to three last year. Even so, the general willingness to have more than one child is still very low, thanks to the painfully high cost of raising children.
With so many statistics getting tinkered with or simply forged, are the leaders and policy-makers not somewhat fooling themselves? Well, to some extent, that may well be true. But the figures are just one reference for the politicians in making their decisions. They also know very well about all the games of statistics.
But for many others, it gets tricky when the figures for the world’s second-largest economy are not reliable. Investors, economists, China researchers have to mobilize all these senses and wisdom to fumble around about the real picture behind the façade.
Zhang Long, a former high-ranking manager of China Construction Bank (CCB) is facing allegations of disciplinary and legal violations. This was announced by China’s anti-corruption authority. Zhang was Head of the Investment and Asset Management Department at CCB.
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Weekend at last! That is what this panda at the Chengdu Giant Panda Breeding Research Station seems to think. On Wednesday, the research station was reopened to the public after a six-month closure.
The UN General Assembly is a good opportunity for high-level political talks. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi used his stay in New York for a confidential meeting with his counterpart from the Solomon Islands. Relationship-building is important because China has a special interest in the Solomon Islands, as became very clear nearly five months ago when a security agreement between the two countries caused much discussion. A draft of the secret paper had been leaked to the public, which fueled suspicions that China might be planning to establish a permanent military presence in the island nation. Since then, it has become quiet around the matter. But it is a deceptive silence, analyzes Michael Radunski. He explains how the People’s Republic is continuously expanding its influence over the island nation.
China also exerts its influence all too eagerly at the UN Human Rights Council. Marcel Grzanna takes a look at the sometimes extremely dubious methods Beijing uses to prevent criticism. Do you know what “gongos” are? It sounds bizarre, and it is. “Governmental Organized Non-Governmental Organizations” are organizations funded, supported, or even founded by the state that seem to be independent, but in reality represent government interests. China has registered 40 such organizations for the UN Human Rights Council alone. And why? So that genuine non-governmental organizations will have fewer chances to use the sparse speaking time for criticism of the human rights situation in Xinjiang and other issues.
World leaders are currently meeting in New York for the UN General Assembly. On Saturday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi will speak on behalf of China. But Wang has already been very active in the days leading up to his speech. On Wednesday, he met Jeremiah Manele, Foreign Minister of the Solomon Islands, for confidential talks. Wang praised China-Solomon Islands relations, highlighting the achievement of impressive results in the past three years. China has always been a trustworthy friend of the Solomon Islands, he said and will continue to help where it can.
But this friendship has not existed all that long. China and the Solomon Islands have only had diplomatic relations since 2019. Beijing was not interested in the island state until Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare decided to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
In New York, Wang stressed that the facts show impressively that the decision to establish diplomatic relations between China and the Solomon Islands is already paying off. China appreciates the Solomon Island’s efforts to adhere to independence and self-determination and chooses its own development path, he said.
This development path has made the Pacific nation between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu the latest stage in the geopolitical power struggle between China and the United States.
A few weeks ago, the crews of the British patrol boat HMS Spey and the US Coast Guard’s Oliver Henry bore the consequences. As part of Operation Island Chief against illegal fishing in the region, the two boats wanted to make a routine stop in the Solomon Islands. But they were banned from entering (China.Table reported). The reason given by Prime Minister Sogavare was that they had not submitted the necessary documents in time.
Malcolm Davis thinks this is a flimsy explanation. “I suspect that Sogavare did this because of China’s urging,” the analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra tells China.Table. It is a test, he said. “Beijing will now closely monitor the international reaction. It will adjust next steps on how they can use Sogavare in the future to deny freedom of navigation to the US and allied naval vessels.”
Sogavare attempted to counter this impression when he stated a few days later that the government would generally review the permit requirements and procedures for visiting military vessels in the Solomon Islands. In other words, it is supposed to be a general docking moratorium for foreign ships. The problem: Sogavare announced the moratorium at the welcoming ceremony of the USS Mercy, a giant hospital ship of the US Navy.
A denied port entry for a US military ship is not yet a cause for great concern. Davis, however, identifies other “alarming developments” that show how China continues to expand its influence in the Solomon Islands: Sogavare recently accepted an offer from Chinese technology company Huawei to build hundreds of cell towers. Critics see this as a gateway for Chinese surveillance technology. And the money for the project – nearly $100 million – is also coming from Beijing, as of a loan the Solomon Islands is borrowing from China. In addition, it became known that Sogavare is said to have arranged dubious payments to several parliamentarians. Opposition leader Matthew Wale claims that Sogavare received the money from the Chinese leadership. In any case, the domestic political pressure on the Prime Minister is immense.
Appropriately, Sogavare also postponed next year’s parliamentary elections. He explained that the Solomon Islands would already be hosting the 17th Pacific Games in 2023. Unfortunately, both would not be possible. A new stadium is built in the capital Honiara for the sporting event – paid for and constructed by China.
Malcolm Davis is convinced: by postponing the election, Sogavare is trying to stay in power beyond his constitutional limits. “He is doing this with Chinese support, including financial support in the form of money cases.” It is a classic horse trade, he said: “Sogavare is to stay in power because he’s loyal to China and willing to give China greater access to the Solomon Islands.” In turn, that is his quid pro quo for China’s support to stay in power, he said
Bryce Wakefield, on the other hand, warns against concluding too quickly. “It’s tempting to frame everything that the Solomon Island government does at the moment in light of its security agreement with Beijing,” the Director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, told news.com.au. Perhaps the Solomon Islands are simply trying to find their place between the two great powers at the moment.
The starting point is the security agreement that China and the Solomon Islands concluded just under five months ago and has been the subject of heated debate ever since. The governments actually wanted to keep the agreement secret, but a draft of the agreement was accidentally leaked to the public. It lists far-reaching concessions to China. The People’s Republic would be allowed to “make ship visits, provide logistical support and have stopovers” as needed and with the Solomon Islands’ consent. Chinese forces would be authorized to protect “the security of Chinese personnel” and “important projects in the Solomon Islands.” It is the legal basis for Chinese security and naval operations in the Pacific nation, which consists of dozens of islands (China.Table reported).
“It’s a dangerous agreement,” Davis judges, explaining: “I think China plans to establish a permanent military presence in the island nation as quickly as possible.” He states Beijing wants to use the Solomon Islands as a stepping stone to expand its influence throughout the Southwest Pacific.
But the West – above all the United States – has also made serious mistakes in its dealings with the Solomon Islands. Although geostrategically important, the Pacific state has been neglected diplomatically for years. And while Ukraine is granted the right to self-determination vis-à-vis Russia, it seems that some US politicians are only too happy to deny the Solomon Islands this right.
But pressure alone will not succeed in pushing back China’s growing influence. Interests and problems must be taken seriously. These are, above all, economic development and overcoming the climate crisis, because the predicted rise in sea level threatens the very existence of states like the Solomon Islands.
Germany, of all countries, has taken the first step here: At the beginning of July, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock traveled to the region and appointed Beate Grzeski as Germany’s first special ambassador for the Pacific island states. The US also plans to show more presence again. It wants to open an embassy in Honiara again – after 29 years.
The moderator of the panel became impatient after two minutes. The employee of the Chinese representation in Geneva had positioned herself in the front row and was now reading out a statement that went on for ages, instead of asking a simple question as intended. The woman was finally asked to please get to the point. But she did not let herself be put off, but stoically recited her manuscript to the end.
Politely, but visibly annoyed, the hosts let the woman go on. Human Rights Watch and the International Service for Human Rights issued invitations aside from the 51st session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva to raise the problem of the Chinese government’s systematic human rights crimes in Xinjiang. The two non-governmental organizations wanted to use the increased global attention on torture, forced labor, and internment of Uyghurs to convey to the global community the urgency for increased action.
But whenever topics that cast Beijing in a bad light come up in the official program of the session or at side events, representatives of the regime are reliably on hand. “Chinese diplomats show up everywhere and occupy public space to take the word of others and loudly spread their own representations,” says Zumretay Arkin. The Canadian with Uyghur roots traveled to Geneva as a spokesperson and lobbyist for the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) and also sat on the panel.
“This is about intimidation,” says Kai Müller of the International Campaign for Tibet (ICT). The Executive Director spoke in person at the Human Rights Council earlier this week and registered how a Chinese diplomat took down his name and that of another ICT staff member present. Yet Müller is truly no stranger to the Chinese. He has been working for ICT for 15 years and lends his voice and face to the organization. His name is known in Geneva, especially by Chinese diplomats. “The intention was that we should definitely see our names written down,” Müller believes.
The message can confidently be understood as a subtle threat to him and all other delegates in the hall. However, the People’s Republic not only wants to intimidate critics in Geneva but is also trying to isolate and marginalize them. To this end, the country is using its influence on the United Nations Economic and Social Council (Ecosog). The body is responsible for accrediting non-governmental organizations to participate in meetings of the Human Rights Council and other UN bodies.
The Chinese representatives there systematically prevent the issuance of approvals to organizations, such as the WUC or the ITC, that China does not approve of. Applications are dragged out for years by constantly raising new, sometimes absurd queries that have to be dealt with by organizations. The interests of the WUC or ITC nevertheless find their way into the plenum because other organizations invite them to do so. For example, Uyghur representatives such as Zumretay Arkin are admitted via the Society for Threatened Peoples from Göttingen. The ICT comes to speak through the Polish Helsinki Foundation.
Nevertheless, the number of accredited organizations for meetings of UN bodies is rising steadily. Over the past 25 years, their number has grown from 1,400 to around 5,000. However, if you look closely, you will see that many of these supposedly non-governmental organizations are by no means independent. On the contrary, they are so-called Gongos (Governmental Organized Non-Governmental Organizations) – i.e. organizations financed, supported, or even founded by the state, which appear under the cloak of independence, but in reality represent Chinese state interests.
The People’s Republic of China has accredited 40 organizations for the Human Rights Council in Geneva alone, although Chinese non-governmental organizations with global reach are practically non-existent. Example: The Chinese Association for the Preservation and Development of Tibetan Culture. By its own account, it is an independent organization whose principle is to “abide by the constitution, laws, regulations and state policies of the People’s Republic of China (…), promote and protect human rights, and strengthen unity, harmony and common prosperity and progress among all ethnic groups in Tibet.”
With such and other gongos, all other non-governmental organizations compete for the sparse speaking time available during the sessions. Those who want to speak have to apply for weeks before the sessions and hope to get a slot distributed at random. The more Chinese gongos apply for speaking time, the smaller the statistical probability that WUC, ICT, or other critical voices will get a chance to speak.
China’s confident demeanor in the hallways of the Human Rights Council and within the body itself is the result of years of lobbying the body and other states. The balance of power in the Council will be put to the test next week when a possible resolution is introduced against the People’s Republic that would decide to establish a mechanism that is independent of China. Frankly, the Council would give a special rapporteur a mandate to monitor the People’s Republic permanently.
China’s influence was also clear weeks before the start of the 51st session. In a Xinjiang report, the then still acting High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, had accused those responsible in Beijing with unprecedented clarity. The paper saw the light of day only on the last day of Bachelet’s term. But apparently only because Bachelet’s staff vehemently pushed for its publication, as first reported by the Financial Times and as a person close to the High Commission confirmed to China.Table.
Bachelet herself reportedly would have preferred not to publish the report. During her tenure, she had apparently concluded that it would be better not to confront China with public accusations. This mindset is also quite common in Germany. Some politicians, entrepreneurs, or scientists believe that things can be straightened out behind closed doors. However, this strategy has proven fruitless for years. Instead of improvement in the human rights situation, the People’s Republic’s record has demonstrably worsened blatantly.
Taiwan plans to end mandatory Covid quarantine for inbound travelers “around October 13.” Further restrictions are to be loosened as early as next week, the government announced Thursday. Previously, inbound travelers still had to isolate themselves from the outside world for three days. Since the beginning of the year, Taiwan has recorded six million Covid infections. For the most part, Omicron cases with more than 99 percent mild symptoms, authorities said.
Visa-free entry for citizens of all countries that previously had this status is to be reinstated starting September 29. The government would also increase the weekly limit on international travelers by 10,000 to 60,000 and no longer conduct PCR tests on entry. When “everything is under control,” the government plans to end mandatory quarantine for all arrivals around October 13, with the number of arrivals increasing to 150,000 per week, a spokesman said. The vaccination rate in Taiwan is very high, and so is the number of new infections. As of Wednesday, 46,000 new cases were reported. nib
EU Foreign Affairs Envoy Josep Borrell has appealed to Beijing at the UN General Assembly to exert influence on Russia to end the war against Ukraine. The Russian invasion has caused a triple crisis worldwide, namely food and energy shortages and financial instability, Borrell told China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York.
Borrell also addressed the precarious situation around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. He warned that a nuclear accident could occur there at any time. Human rights issues were also discussed at the meeting, the European External Action Service said. Among these was the convening of a human rights dialogue between the EU and China to discuss topics of concern. The UN General Assembly is in session until Monday. Wang Yi is on the list of speakers for Saturday. ari
China’s Special Representative for Climate Change Affairs expressed hope during a meeting with his German counterpart Jennifer Morgan that industrialized countries will keep their pledge to transfer $100 billion in climate funds annually to developing countries. The conversation late Wednesday centered on international climate policy and the upcoming World Climate Change Conference, which will be held Nov. 06-18 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
Xie said the climate policies of some European countries have gone into a “backswing.” He said he hopes this is only a temporary stopgap. “Implementation and action” of existing climate goals should be the theme at the climate conference. The State Department refrained from commenting on the meeting. Morgan wrote on Twitter that climate change “is the common existential threat” that unites all UN nations. She stressed the importance of multilateral climate cooperation.
The statements on both sides have a backstory: China likes to present itself as the advocate of developing countries in climate negotiations. By pointing to the lack of commitments, China can score points with these countries and distract from the fact that its own national climate targets do not meet the requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement. Morgan’s reference to climate cooperation can be taken as a reference to China’s withdrawal from climate talks with the United States. Following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the US had withdrawn from bilateral talks formats.
China is experiencing a decline in carbon emissions due to the ongoing economic slump, which has continued for four quarters. But over the last few decades, per capita emissions in China have risen rapidly and now exceed those of the EU. Average emissions per capita in Germany are now just above those in China. Nevertheless, all countries must do more to achieve the climate targets. nib
China’s former Minister of Justice, Fu Zhenghua, has been sentenced to death for corruption. However, the sentence, handed down by a court in Changchun, will not be carried out but will be commuted to life imprisonment. There is no possibility of parole.
Fu Zhenghua previously held several high-ranking positions, including Beijing Police Chief and Vice Minister of Public Security. Over a period of 16 years, he allegedly accepted bribes totaling ¥117 million (€16.7 million). A few months ago, Fu was also accused of being part of a political clique around Sun Lijun. Sun, former Vice Minister of Public Security, who is also under corruption investigation. He is accused of not recognizing Xi Jinping’s authority.
Just on Wednesday, former Shanghai Police Chief Gong Daoan was sentenced to life imprisonment. The former Police Chiefs of Chongqing, Deng Huilin, and Shanxi, Liu Xinyun received prison sentences of 15 and 14 years respectively.
For Xi Jinping, anti-corruption campaigns are an important political tool to ensure his own hold on power. In 2020, the campaign to clean the judicial system began, with more than 170,000 officials and police officers convicted in the past two years. jul
Airbus has received an order worth the equivalent of €4.9 million. The aircraft manufacturer will deliver 40 A320neo aircraft to Xiamen Air. Until now, Xiamen has operated only Boeing aircraft. The aircraft are to be delivered between 2023 and 2027, Bloomberg reports.
Back in July, Airbus signed contracts for a sold aircraft of the same type to four airlines in China worth the equivalent of €37.5 billion (China.Table reported). Airbus operates a final assembly plant in Tianjin, which is contributing to the increase in market share. nib
In difficult times as well as decisive political moments like this year, figures and statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.
China’s economic data is published by several government agencies. Among the most important are the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance and the Customs Administration. The numbers they publish are generally considered trustworthy, except for politically highly sensitive data on the debt situation of local governments.
It is the figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, which are responsible for the bulk of economic statistics, that caused the most frustration.
It is an open secret that the most important statistics have to be approved by the State Council of the People’s Republic before they are published. The last time China vigorously “revised” its economic figures was in 1998 when the Asian crisis and huge floods throughout the region shattered the eight percent growth target announced by the government in Beijing. The National Bureau of Statistics ultimately spoke of a growth rate of 7.8 percent. However, it is estimated that growth was actually between five and six percent.
There are many ways to cook the books. Some economic growth in one quarter could be moved to help a different poor quarter. Statistics as old as ten years ago could potentially be modified to iron out inconsistencies among the figures.
This year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s gross domestic product grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, while the announced growth target for the full year is 5.5 percent. With rampant Covid-triggered lockdowns across the country, a sluggish real estate sector, much subdued private businesses, and lackluster consumer sentiment, the authenticity of this figure is widely doubted.
With the lockdowns getting worse in the second quarter, the market has lost any hope that the yearly target could be met. The government seemed to, in turn, decide not to tinker with the figures (too much) and announce a growth of 0.4 percent for the second quarter
To be fair, the quality of China’s statistics had been improving before the Covid pandemic. The largely meaningless “registered unemployment rate,” which did not take into account China’s enormous population outside the major cities, was replaced by a rate based on surveys of both urban and rural areas. A subcategory was even introduced for the unemployment rate of 16- to 24-year-olds.
The province of Liaoning and the provincial level city of Tianjin were reprimanded for publishing egregiously exaggerated economic statistics to polish the image of the local government leaders.
However, difficulties caused by the Covid pandemic and the running-up to the all-important 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China seemed to have triggered a relapse.
What is particularly frustrating is: whether you believe in the official figures or not, there is no way to prove them. The NBS never reveals its methodology in detail, apparently to give itself some leeway. No other institution has the legitimate mandate or ability to implement a separate system in parallel with the official one.
Taking other official figures for cross-examining is also not always feasible because the NBS doesn’t publish them consistently. For example, the figure for electricity generation, a key barometer for economic activity, has been missing from NBS reports since 2020. Publication of values for the coal price, another indicator, is also suspended as soon as the price is too high.
Third-party institutions may be able to produce some indicators, such as the construction of new infrastructural projects, which could be gathered through satellite images, and total truckload volumes. But the institutions generally don’t dare to publish these figures publicly to avoid contracting the official story. If they do, there could be consequences. The rationale given for the suspension is usually “to take a responsible attitude as the prices fluctuate abnormally.”
In August, an independent research institute published a report on regional real estate vacancy rates based on an independent survey. The report was later retracted under pressure.
Except for a small group of absolutely essential figures such as GDP, price indices and industrial output, the NBS would do cherry-picking for the other figures. Only good-looking ones will appear in its reports.
This resembles a not-so-fun game of hide-and-seek. Observers can only take comfort in the fact that the government’s selection of figures to be published can reflect their policy inclinations.
There is speculation that China has overreported its population growth in the past couple of years. The government has been very reluctant to abandon its one-child policy, even after the birth rate was excessively low. This hesitation could result in a fast aging population, which bodes ill for the economic and social prospects.
China allowed its citizens to have up to two children in 2015 and further raised the quota to three last year. Even so, the general willingness to have more than one child is still very low, thanks to the painfully high cost of raising children.
With so many statistics getting tinkered with or simply forged, are the leaders and policy-makers not somewhat fooling themselves? Well, to some extent, that may well be true. But the figures are just one reference for the politicians in making their decisions. They also know very well about all the games of statistics.
But for many others, it gets tricky when the figures for the world’s second-largest economy are not reliable. Investors, economists, China researchers have to mobilize all these senses and wisdom to fumble around about the real picture behind the façade.
Zhang Long, a former high-ranking manager of China Construction Bank (CCB) is facing allegations of disciplinary and legal violations. This was announced by China’s anti-corruption authority. Zhang was Head of the Investment and Asset Management Department at CCB.
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Weekend at last! That is what this panda at the Chengdu Giant Panda Breeding Research Station seems to think. On Wednesday, the research station was reopened to the public after a six-month closure.