Visits to Taiwan by politicians to express solidarity have been very popular in recent months. Felix Lee took this as an opportunity to investigate whether the diplomatic visits marked a turning point in Germany’s Taiwan policy. The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) is of particular interest here; after all, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) have already clearly positioned themselves.
Renowned SPD foreign policy experts Michael Roth and Nils Schmid confirmed to Lee that a change in thinking is taking place, even if the conventional policy guidelines toward China continue to apply. In the overall picture, a real turning point is approaching so rapidly that experts are already alarmed: A real departure from the One-China principle would do more harm than good to Taiwan.
3 days, 23 appointments – the need for personal exchange is great. Travel restrictions have barely been lifted when a delegation from the EU Chamber of Commerce visits Brussels. The representatives of European companies met with MPs, EU Commission representatives and Chinese diplomats. Apart from Covid, numerous other economic and political issues concern entrepreneurs. Chamber President Joerg Wuttke found pithy words to describe the direction of the People’s Republic under Xi: “More Marx instead of market.” Marcel Grzanna reports from Brussels.
The Taiwan conflict has arrived on Berlin’s political scene. Not long ago, there was a chance that MPs would confuse Taiwan with Thailand. Today, one visit to Taiwan by German politicians follows the next. The preservation of Taiwan as a democratic state is at the top of the foreign policy agenda. Politicians apparently hope to score points with voters at home by showing solidarity for the island 9,000 kilometers away.
The German foreign and economic ministries, both led by the Greens, have explicitly mentioned support for Taiwan in their leaked strategy papers. With the current visit of a high-ranking liberal FDP delegation to Taipei, including chairwoman of the defense committee Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the FDP as the second governing party is also sending a clear signal in support of an independent Taiwan.
And even the SPD has chosen a harsher tone, even though, like the previous government under Angela Merkel, it actually favors cooperation with the leadership in Beijing and does not risk German business interests in the People’s Republic under any circumstances. “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has unfortunately opened our eyes in a united Europe and in the community of democratic, free constitutional states far too late,” SPD MP Michael Roth, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, told China.Table.
He believes an escalation around Taiwan is a realistic scenario in the next few years. Germany and Europe must prepare for this, Roth said. And that includes clearly showing the Chinese leadership that the political West will react united to a military escalation. “The great unity in Russia policy must be our model here.”
SPD head Lars Klingbeil can no longer even rule out a break with China. “We must realize that tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in ten years’ time, the time may come when China crosses borders,” Klingbeil said in the German weekly Die Zeit. “If China attacks Taiwan, our relationship with China will also fundamentally change, as is the case now with Russia.”
Germany must become more independent of China, tap other markets and find other raw materials trading partners, say both SPD politicians – echoing the views of the Greens and the FDP. Accordingly, Roth also welcomes the visit of the FDP delegation to Taiwan this week. “I, too, have already exchanged views with Taiwan’s representative in Germany. Such talks are by no means a provocation.”
Clear words that would not have been spoken under the previous government. And this is also the view of the leadership in Beijing, which has reacted to the FDP’s trip with appropriate protest messages and even additional military exercises. But is this really a shift in direction in the German government’s Taiwan policy, or even a turning point?
Politicians dismiss this question. “I would not speak of a turning point, but of a growing awareness of the region,” Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, told China.Table. His parliamentary group already stated in a position paper three years ago that there cannot be a unilateral change of the status quo by the People’s Republic of China or a violent conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but rather only by mutual agreement.
Schmid sees the diplomatic visits of recent months – in addition to the FDP, two cross-party delegations from the German Bundestag were also in Taiwan – as an “important signal“. At the same time, he warns against overestimating the Chinese leadership’s protest. After all, Germany’s position on the One-China policy has not changed.
Gunter Schubert, a political scientist on China at the University of Tübingen, takes a more differentiated view. He does not see the German government departing from the “One China principle,” which excludes Germany’s support for Taiwan’s sovereignty. But Germany, like other states, is now implicitly distinguishing between the ‘One China policy’ on the one hand and the ‘One China principle’ on the other.”
This means that the German government continues to follow Beijing’s demand at the official level that Taiwan and China should be considered as one part of a whole China. But the government separates this position from the People’s Republic of China’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. And this claim to sovereignty is “undermined by increasing delegation traffic, expressions of sympathy toward Taiwan, and also with direct references to Taiwan – for example in strategic documents.”
Just like the Greens, the FDP is pushing the boundaries of this new policy, Schubert said. And the SPD? It has so far focused on cooperation with Beijing, but it is likely to change this stance – to the extent that the conflict between China and Taiwan intensifies.
The Zeitenwende in Taiwan politics is already emerging so clearly that other political scientists are even downright alarmed. Eberhard Sandschneider calls the actions of the FDP and the Greens “irresponsible politics.” “It does Taiwan no good at all. It only increases the risk for Taiwan, as can be seen from the reactions of the People’s Republic,” says the East Asia expert, who headed the research center of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) until 2016. He calls out the “mendacity of this policy,” which is good for “domestic political applause.” That applies to Strack-Zimmermann and the FDP just as it applied to Nancy Pelosi, he says.
Sandschneider emphasizes that there is nothing wrong with visits to Taiwan, even by ministers, as long as they focus on economic cooperation and national symbolism is left aside. There had been such a visit with Guenter Rexrodt as Minister of Economics in 1997. Beijing had little objection to it. However, the participation of Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the chairwoman of the defense committee, sent a different signal.
The ones who take the risk are the people of Taiwan, Sandschneider said. “Whoever turns this conflict recklessly must be aware of his responsibility. And that is what I find lacking in German politics,” the political scientist criticizes. “Measured against the risk of a massive conflict arising there, which would have catastrophic consequences for the global economy.” He emphasizes that China-Taiwan is different from Russia-Ukraine. Also for the German economy. “The best option for both sides at the moment is the status quo,” Sandschneider firmly believes.
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China has taken advantage of the end of zero-covid and visited Brussels for the first time in about three years. The delegation, led by Chamber President Jörg Wuttke, made a veritable appointment marathon of this week to personally meet with numerous representatives of the EU Commission, MPs and Chinese diplomats. For Wuttke, it is his last trip to Brussels in his capacity as chamber president. In May, the 65-year-old will step down from his post after more than a decade.
The schedule that the delegation set for itself reflects the urgency of personal exchanges, which have been drastically complicated by the travel restrictions of recent years. The representatives of European companies in China used 23 appointments in the first three days of their visit to convey their concerns and their views on the political and economic development of the People’s Republic.
Talks are planned with EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and China’s EU Ambassador Fu Cong, among others. Always high on the agenda: the post-Covid outlook. “2022 was a nightmare,” Wuttke said at a press briefing in Brussels Thursday morning. “But the good news is that it’s over.” The chamber expects the economy to rebound significantly in the second quarter. Wuttke believes five percent growth is still possible for 2023.
To achieve it, however, China would have to act “more leniently and graciously” and not respond with new restrictions on trading partners, as it has already done this week. Short-term visas were denied to travelers from Japan and South Korea after both countries introduced mandatory testing for arrivals from the People’s Republic. Germany introduced the same mandatory testing, but has so far been spared retaliatory measures.
But Covid is just one of many woes that have recently plagued European companies in China. Difficult market access, stuttering domestic consumption and unfair treatment have long plagued companies. But compared to the 2000s, the political atmosphere has deteriorated to such an extent that even Wuttke is now skeptical that things could change in the near future.
“More Marx instead of market,” the chamber president summarized the new ideological focus of the People’s Republic under President Xi Jinping, which in the long term will slow down growth and opening up. Because less market means strengthening inefficient state-owned enterprises, which the country originally wanted to reform and modernize for nearly two decades.
Beijing will pay a high price for this strategic decision. The EU Chamber assumes that China will lose enormous economic output by the year 2050 if the country continues down its “socialist path”. Instead of the $55,000 optimum projected a few years ago, it would generate only $34,000 per capita, studies predict. “China needs to know whether its ideological orientation is worth $21,000 per capita,” Wuttke said.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan issue hangs over China’s business like the sword of Damocles. Since Russia’s assault on Ukraine, the democratically governed island gained the attention of the Western world. Wuttke is certain that there will be no war, at least “within the next ten years.” The economic consequences of an invasion would be far too great for Beijing. However, this is only true if the status quo remains unchanged. In other words, there are not likely to be any serious efforts toward independence in Taiwan.
The 20,000 workers at the Xinhe factories in Pingdu, Shandong, do not have to grasp at the last straw. Their native province, where Confucius also came from, produces an abundance of wheat and barley. Their straw, considered dirt in the great philosopher’s time, is now raw material for woven crafts. The baskets and bags in this showroom are made using numerous time-honored techniques.
Visits to Taiwan by politicians to express solidarity have been very popular in recent months. Felix Lee took this as an opportunity to investigate whether the diplomatic visits marked a turning point in Germany’s Taiwan policy. The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) is of particular interest here; after all, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) have already clearly positioned themselves.
Renowned SPD foreign policy experts Michael Roth and Nils Schmid confirmed to Lee that a change in thinking is taking place, even if the conventional policy guidelines toward China continue to apply. In the overall picture, a real turning point is approaching so rapidly that experts are already alarmed: A real departure from the One-China principle would do more harm than good to Taiwan.
3 days, 23 appointments – the need for personal exchange is great. Travel restrictions have barely been lifted when a delegation from the EU Chamber of Commerce visits Brussels. The representatives of European companies met with MPs, EU Commission representatives and Chinese diplomats. Apart from Covid, numerous other economic and political issues concern entrepreneurs. Chamber President Joerg Wuttke found pithy words to describe the direction of the People’s Republic under Xi: “More Marx instead of market.” Marcel Grzanna reports from Brussels.
The Taiwan conflict has arrived on Berlin’s political scene. Not long ago, there was a chance that MPs would confuse Taiwan with Thailand. Today, one visit to Taiwan by German politicians follows the next. The preservation of Taiwan as a democratic state is at the top of the foreign policy agenda. Politicians apparently hope to score points with voters at home by showing solidarity for the island 9,000 kilometers away.
The German foreign and economic ministries, both led by the Greens, have explicitly mentioned support for Taiwan in their leaked strategy papers. With the current visit of a high-ranking liberal FDP delegation to Taipei, including chairwoman of the defense committee Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the FDP as the second governing party is also sending a clear signal in support of an independent Taiwan.
And even the SPD has chosen a harsher tone, even though, like the previous government under Angela Merkel, it actually favors cooperation with the leadership in Beijing and does not risk German business interests in the People’s Republic under any circumstances. “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has unfortunately opened our eyes in a united Europe and in the community of democratic, free constitutional states far too late,” SPD MP Michael Roth, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, told China.Table.
He believes an escalation around Taiwan is a realistic scenario in the next few years. Germany and Europe must prepare for this, Roth said. And that includes clearly showing the Chinese leadership that the political West will react united to a military escalation. “The great unity in Russia policy must be our model here.”
SPD head Lars Klingbeil can no longer even rule out a break with China. “We must realize that tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in ten years’ time, the time may come when China crosses borders,” Klingbeil said in the German weekly Die Zeit. “If China attacks Taiwan, our relationship with China will also fundamentally change, as is the case now with Russia.”
Germany must become more independent of China, tap other markets and find other raw materials trading partners, say both SPD politicians – echoing the views of the Greens and the FDP. Accordingly, Roth also welcomes the visit of the FDP delegation to Taiwan this week. “I, too, have already exchanged views with Taiwan’s representative in Germany. Such talks are by no means a provocation.”
Clear words that would not have been spoken under the previous government. And this is also the view of the leadership in Beijing, which has reacted to the FDP’s trip with appropriate protest messages and even additional military exercises. But is this really a shift in direction in the German government’s Taiwan policy, or even a turning point?
Politicians dismiss this question. “I would not speak of a turning point, but of a growing awareness of the region,” Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, told China.Table. His parliamentary group already stated in a position paper three years ago that there cannot be a unilateral change of the status quo by the People’s Republic of China or a violent conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but rather only by mutual agreement.
Schmid sees the diplomatic visits of recent months – in addition to the FDP, two cross-party delegations from the German Bundestag were also in Taiwan – as an “important signal“. At the same time, he warns against overestimating the Chinese leadership’s protest. After all, Germany’s position on the One-China policy has not changed.
Gunter Schubert, a political scientist on China at the University of Tübingen, takes a more differentiated view. He does not see the German government departing from the “One China principle,” which excludes Germany’s support for Taiwan’s sovereignty. But Germany, like other states, is now implicitly distinguishing between the ‘One China policy’ on the one hand and the ‘One China principle’ on the other.”
This means that the German government continues to follow Beijing’s demand at the official level that Taiwan and China should be considered as one part of a whole China. But the government separates this position from the People’s Republic of China’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. And this claim to sovereignty is “undermined by increasing delegation traffic, expressions of sympathy toward Taiwan, and also with direct references to Taiwan – for example in strategic documents.”
Just like the Greens, the FDP is pushing the boundaries of this new policy, Schubert said. And the SPD? It has so far focused on cooperation with Beijing, but it is likely to change this stance – to the extent that the conflict between China and Taiwan intensifies.
The Zeitenwende in Taiwan politics is already emerging so clearly that other political scientists are even downright alarmed. Eberhard Sandschneider calls the actions of the FDP and the Greens “irresponsible politics.” “It does Taiwan no good at all. It only increases the risk for Taiwan, as can be seen from the reactions of the People’s Republic,” says the East Asia expert, who headed the research center of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) until 2016. He calls out the “mendacity of this policy,” which is good for “domestic political applause.” That applies to Strack-Zimmermann and the FDP just as it applied to Nancy Pelosi, he says.
Sandschneider emphasizes that there is nothing wrong with visits to Taiwan, even by ministers, as long as they focus on economic cooperation and national symbolism is left aside. There had been such a visit with Guenter Rexrodt as Minister of Economics in 1997. Beijing had little objection to it. However, the participation of Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the chairwoman of the defense committee, sent a different signal.
The ones who take the risk are the people of Taiwan, Sandschneider said. “Whoever turns this conflict recklessly must be aware of his responsibility. And that is what I find lacking in German politics,” the political scientist criticizes. “Measured against the risk of a massive conflict arising there, which would have catastrophic consequences for the global economy.” He emphasizes that China-Taiwan is different from Russia-Ukraine. Also for the German economy. “The best option for both sides at the moment is the status quo,” Sandschneider firmly believes.
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China has taken advantage of the end of zero-covid and visited Brussels for the first time in about three years. The delegation, led by Chamber President Jörg Wuttke, made a veritable appointment marathon of this week to personally meet with numerous representatives of the EU Commission, MPs and Chinese diplomats. For Wuttke, it is his last trip to Brussels in his capacity as chamber president. In May, the 65-year-old will step down from his post after more than a decade.
The schedule that the delegation set for itself reflects the urgency of personal exchanges, which have been drastically complicated by the travel restrictions of recent years. The representatives of European companies in China used 23 appointments in the first three days of their visit to convey their concerns and their views on the political and economic development of the People’s Republic.
Talks are planned with EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and China’s EU Ambassador Fu Cong, among others. Always high on the agenda: the post-Covid outlook. “2022 was a nightmare,” Wuttke said at a press briefing in Brussels Thursday morning. “But the good news is that it’s over.” The chamber expects the economy to rebound significantly in the second quarter. Wuttke believes five percent growth is still possible for 2023.
To achieve it, however, China would have to act “more leniently and graciously” and not respond with new restrictions on trading partners, as it has already done this week. Short-term visas were denied to travelers from Japan and South Korea after both countries introduced mandatory testing for arrivals from the People’s Republic. Germany introduced the same mandatory testing, but has so far been spared retaliatory measures.
But Covid is just one of many woes that have recently plagued European companies in China. Difficult market access, stuttering domestic consumption and unfair treatment have long plagued companies. But compared to the 2000s, the political atmosphere has deteriorated to such an extent that even Wuttke is now skeptical that things could change in the near future.
“More Marx instead of market,” the chamber president summarized the new ideological focus of the People’s Republic under President Xi Jinping, which in the long term will slow down growth and opening up. Because less market means strengthening inefficient state-owned enterprises, which the country originally wanted to reform and modernize for nearly two decades.
Beijing will pay a high price for this strategic decision. The EU Chamber assumes that China will lose enormous economic output by the year 2050 if the country continues down its “socialist path”. Instead of the $55,000 optimum projected a few years ago, it would generate only $34,000 per capita, studies predict. “China needs to know whether its ideological orientation is worth $21,000 per capita,” Wuttke said.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan issue hangs over China’s business like the sword of Damocles. Since Russia’s assault on Ukraine, the democratically governed island gained the attention of the Western world. Wuttke is certain that there will be no war, at least “within the next ten years.” The economic consequences of an invasion would be far too great for Beijing. However, this is only true if the status quo remains unchanged. In other words, there are not likely to be any serious efforts toward independence in Taiwan.
The 20,000 workers at the Xinhe factories in Pingdu, Shandong, do not have to grasp at the last straw. Their native province, where Confucius also came from, produces an abundance of wheat and barley. Their straw, considered dirt in the great philosopher’s time, is now raw material for woven crafts. The baskets and bags in this showroom are made using numerous time-honored techniques.
