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Letzte Aktualisierung: January 20, 2022

Why did almost no one see inflation coming?

By Jason Furman
Jason Furman is a professor of economic policy practice and served as chairman of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Experts.
The most important financial experts in the USA were completely off the mark with their forecasts for 2021. There are several reasons for this collective misjudgment, writes Jason Furman. One model is particularly suitable for assessing the situation more realistically.
In 2008, as the global financial crisis was ravaging economies everywhere, Queen Elizabeth II, visiting the London School of Economics, famously asked, “Why did nobody see it coming?” The high inflation of 2021 – especially in the United States, where the year-on-year increase in consumer prices reached a four-decade high of 7% in December – should prompt the same question.
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