Here we go! For the next two weeks, the world will be looking to Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt. At the COP27 climate summit, delegates from nearly 200 countries will make the next attempt to get the climate crisis under control. Unfortunately, the chances of this happening are not looking too good.
This was shown by a flood of extensive scientific reports in recent days: The world is by no means, as will again be demanded in Egypt, on track to “act now.” True, the heads of state and government will deliver pretty speeches during the high-level segment to create a positive mood at the start of the COP. But emissions are rising, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods, wildfires and heat waves are on the rise. Countries in the Global North and South are more at odds with each other than they have been in a long time. The Russian assault on Ukraine complicates everything further.
Will there be progress in Sharm el Sheikh anyway? Will countries find a way to finance losses from climate change? Will countries reaffirm or water down their fossil phase-out? How much collective action is still possible?
These are the questions that will accompany us over the next two weeks. Our team will follow the negotiations on the ground and keep you up to date. We are looking forward to exciting days.
The COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh started with a first victory for the developing countries: Dealing with loss and damage resulting from climate change in the global South will become a so-called “Agenda Item” and is thus officially on the agenda of the climate conference. The issue of loss and damage has so far divided rich and poor countries. According to Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, the breakthrough was reached after 48 hours of tough negotiations. A final decision on loss and damage will be sought “no later than 2024,” said Shoukry, who was elected COP president on Sunday.
Back in 1991, small island nations were already calling for a kind of insurance system against the climate crisis. Since then, the issue has come up again and again, but it has never been taken seriously. Last year, however, the Glasgow Dialogue provided a platform for discussion on loss and damage. According to Shoukry, the agenda breakthrough on loss and damage was achieved through a compromise: the discussion will be based on “cooperation” rather than “liability or compensation.”
Specifically, developing countries call for a financing instrument for damage and losses, for example in the event of droughts, floods, but also economic damage. The idea is that the industrialized countries, as the main perpetrators of climate change, should also bear financial responsibility for the consequences of years of carbon emissions. The USA and also some EU countries have so far shied away from such a step. They fear that they will be held liable for natural disasters and that the demands for compensation will increase dramatically.
Before committing to a financial framework, the EU first wants to clarify with the countries of the Global South how great the need is. The EU mandate for the COP only includes talks. A high-ranking EU official said on Friday that the Global South’s willingness to engage in such talks was surprisingly low. He said the EU is willing to provide funding for loss and damage. However, this would have to be based on demand, otherwise complicated and years-long negotiations on compensation criteria would ensue, he said.
One option could be to agree on a capped funding framework that compensates for losses and damages. That would be a major success. At the same time, failure on this issue could also mean failure of the entire conference.
State Secretary at the German Federal Foreign Office, Jennifer Morgan, is responsible for negotiating a loss-and-damage roadmap with Chilean Environment Minister Maisa Rojas.
At COP27, previously adopted agreements are once again up for debate. In Glasgow, the countries agreed to use less fossil fuels and to end government subsidies for fossil infrastructure.
But because more and more coal-fired power plants are once again added to the grid, especially in the EU, or their operating lives are being extended, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are being sought, for example from Azerbaijan, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates, there are doubts that these agreements will be upheld. The climate policy credibility of Europe and the West is at stake. In addition, China approved new coal mines, and Vietnam and Indonesia are also trying to expand their coal production.
For this reason, some African states in particular are demanding to be allowed to develop their fossil energy sources. This position could complicate the talks in Sharm El-Sheikh.
In 2009, industrialized countries pledged to provide $100 billion each year from 2020 for investments in carbon abatement and climate adaptation measures in less wealthy countries. In 2020, the target was missed by a wide margin at $83.3 billion. According to an OECD forecast, the figures for 2022 are a maximum of $88 billion.
The sum of 100 billion is expected to be reached in 2023, however. But for that to happen, the United States in particular will have to ramp up its funding pledges. Joe Biden’s Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience (PREPARE) earmarks $3 billion a year for climate adaptation and a total of $11 billion for climate financing – but only starting in 2024. The EU also needs to step up. According to its own figures, the EU states provided just over €23 billion for public climate financing in 2021, excluding private capital.
The Egyptian COP presidency will pressure the industrialized countries to fulfill the promise by next year at the latest. As the African host country, Egypt’s demands also represent the Global South as a whole.
However, not only the amount alone is important, but also how much money comes from grants and how much from loans. Countries such as Japan and France do exceed their share of climate financing, but a large part consists of loans. The Global South, however, demands grants, especially for adaptation measures. In Glasgow, countries agreed that at least 50 percent of climate finance should go to adaptation measures.
According to calculations by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), international aid payments to date to the Global South for climate adaptation are between five and ten times lower than what the countries actually need. The UN Office for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that developing countries will require $300 billion in adaptation funding by 2030. During negotiations, the industrialized countries will once again be accused of not doing enough.
By 2025, the share of climate financing that flows into adaptation measures will be doubled. From the current level of around $20 billion (about a quarter of the total amount) to $40 billion – that was decided in Glasgow. If the $100 billion pledge is viewed together with the plan to allocate 50 percent to adaptation, then another $10 billion would have to flow. The less developed countries will also insist on this.
COP27 also marks the start of talks on a new financing target beyond 2025, which is supposed to be based on the needs of developing countries. However, an agreement is considered unlikely and is not planned until the Global Stocktake at COP28 on – the progress review of the Paris Agreement.
Despite the enormous need for adaptation measures, the EU in particular has repeatedly warned that avoiding climate-damaging carbon emissions must not be overlooked in the process. The European negotiators will also reiterate this point in Sharm el-Sheikh.
All countries were urged to raise their 2030 climate targets in the run-up to the COP. Of the industrialized countries, only Australia submitted an update to the UN before the summit began. Although the EU is also prepared to increase its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), it will wait until the negotiations of the Fit-for-55 package have been completed.
Instead, so-called Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are to be promoted at the behest of the G7 and the EU. A first JETP with South Africa (Climate.Table reported) worth $8.5 billion was agreed upon in Glasgow. Others are planned with Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Senegal – among others, to end the use of coal in these countries.
Furthermore, additional energy and hydrogen partnerships are planned. The EU and Egypt want to seal their joint project at the COP. Ursula von der Leyen will sign memoranda of understanding with Namibia and Kazakhstan during the high level segment of the summit.
For the COP host country Egypt, the climate crisis and climate conferences are highly relevant for many reasons:
With a population of 102 million people spread over a very small area, Egypt is vulnerable to disruptions to the natural balance: 95 percent of its population lives in the Nile Valley. Climate change increasingly leads to water shortages. Furthermore, the Nile Delta is threatened by rising sea levels and salinization: Coastal cities such as Alexandria would be particularly affected by the predicted increases of up to one meter by 2100. 30 percent of agricultural production in the fertile Nile Delta is considered to be at risk.
On greenhouse gas emissions, Egypt’s GDP of around $440 billion is on par with France at around 250 million tons. Per capita emissions, however, are significantly lower at 3.5 tons (France: 5.4 tons, Germany 8.6 tons). The current climate plan (NDC) envisages that the country will still increase its emissions by 2030. Egypt does not have a net-zero target for 2050.
Germanwatch’s Climate Change Performance Index rates Egypt’s climate policy as “medium”. The country thus ranks 22nd out of 61 states – behind Luxembourg, ahead of France. The index praises the country’s low emissions and low energy consumption. However, it also sees deficits in climate policy and the expansion of renewables.
The country’s energy policy is based on natural gas. For a long time, energy was scarce – but that changed in 2015 with the discovery of large gas deposits off the coast in the Mediterranean. Since then, Egypt has become an important producer and supplier – also for Europe. The reserves in the Mediterranean Sea and facilities for processing and shipping the LNG gas from Lebanon and Israel, for example, make it an important hub in the gas poker of the North Africa/Middle East region. A Russian nuclear power plant is planned but not yet under construction. Egypt does not have coal-fired power plants for electricity.
As for electricity from renewable sources, much rests on hydropower on the Nile (seven percent of electricity), only two percent on wind and one percent on solar power. The potential is enormous, but is hardly tapped: According to figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), about 60 percent of the country’s land offers excellent conditions for wind and solar power.
The plans of the government envisage a total power generation from renewables of 20 percent by 2022. In 2019, only 10 percent were reached. Officially, the percentage of electricity generated from renewables is to rise to 42 percent by 2035. However, IRENA sees the potential to increase this share to 53 percent.
Egypt’s climate plans include:
To meet the targets, the government estimates a total of $246 billion in foreign aid by 2030.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Egypt’s climate policy as “highly insufficient”. Egypt allows itself an increase in emissions of 50 percent by 2030. According to the Climate Action Tracker, this target is so weak that it would be achieved even with current measures, which amount to a 15 to 40 percent increase in emissions. If the country wants to do its part to meet the Paris climate goals, emissions should at least be frozen at current levels by 2030, according to CAT.
The evaluation also warns that Egypt is making itself dependent on this type of fossil fuel with one-third of Africa’s total gas consumption. As a result, the government risks “locking itself in to a high-carbon pathway” and shows “no leadership” in the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels.
But Egypt is now expected to prove this “leadership” at COP. The COP presidency is an opportunity for the country to show itself “on the world stage as a leading voice for the Global South,” writes Mohammed Soliman, a strategy consultant at Carnegie Endowment. “Egypt looks to the summit as an opportunity to burnish its international prestige, emphasize its Afro-Arab identity, and position Cairo as a bridge-builder between the Global South and North.”
Under the UK’s Presidency of COP26 last year, the whole world came together to sign the Glasgow Climate Pact. The Pact recommitted all nations to averting climate catastrophe, and made ambitious new commitments that if implemented, could keep a temperature limit of 1.5 degrees within reach; protect our forests and oceans; and help the poorest and most vulnerable countries survive the impacts of climate change that we cannot now avoid.
Since then we have been reminded of the urgency and scale of the threat. The scale of the floods in Pakistan was unprecedented. The Horn of Africa has suffered five failed harvests leaving 50 million facing acute food shortage. Hundreds of extreme weather records were broken across all continents.
It is sobering to recall that it takes 10-20 years for the earth’s system to fully absorb new Greenhouse Gas emissions. Today’s climate and weather reflect the emissions of long ago, and since then billions of tonnes of emissions have been added to the atmosphere. The extreme temperatures, floods, droughts, ice melt, fire and ecosystem failures that are rapidly worsening across the world are just a fraction of what is to come.
In addition, we face another 30 years before we stop adding to the stock of Greenhouse Gases. There is a possibility that even at current emissions, we may have already fundamentally destabilized most of the Earth’s key climate systems, with untold and irreversible consequences for humankind.
Every tonne of emissions, every decimal place of warming, makes a difference. There is no time to waste.
In this context, we witness Russia’s appalling invasion of Ukraine, which has divided and distracted us from a focus on the clean, green transition on which future generations depend. This is desperately serious. We cannot afford any delay. Emissions reductions are needed every day, week and month in order to roughly halve the global flow by 2030, and net them off completely by mid-century so that the stock begins to decline. Instead, Russia flares millions of dollars of gas daily.
We can and must ensure the Russian invasion accelerates the switch away from fossil fuel dependence to clean energy. The invasion has unequivocally highlighted our unsustainable dependency on expensive, volatile, polluting fossil fuels – and the terrible reality that our consumption is funding Putin’s bombs.
Ceasing to use Russian oil and gas makes sense on every level:
We have extraordinary job-rich opportunities in areas such as hydrogen power, battery storage and smart disintermediated grids, in net zero transport, industry and infrastructure that support wealth creation everywhere.
There is a short-term reality of needing fossil fuels from alternative sources, to ensure immediate energy security. But overall, fossil fuel use in Germany and the UK is still falling and it is being done within our respective net zero frameworks.
So whatever the wider geopolitical tensions, we simply must sustain and build more momentum at COP27 in Egypt. Our key focus must be on supporting those in most need. The targets have been set. But the support and finance is not yet getting where it is needed in sufficient scale or pace.
For this reason, COP27 has been dubbed the ‘action COP‘ or the ‘implementation COP‘. Throughout 2022, the UK has worked closely with Egypt and the UNFCCC Secretariat, as well as with like-minded partners such as Germany to support implementation. We are grateful for Germany’s leadership in developing the delivery plan for the $100bn of climate finance promised to vulnerable nations, as well as the climate leadership shown under its G7 Presidency.
By the end of COP27 we must be able to demonstrate that the promises made in Glasgow are being delivered. All major emitters must do more. Every country needs to drive home its national plan, consistent with a 1.5 temperature limit. We must ramp up climate finance – public and private – to support the poorest and most vulnerable countries, living up to our promises and going further, including using new, country-led Just Energy Transition Partnerships to put fairness at the heart of the transition.
We are seeing progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation, and on loss and damage, and we must use the new Glasgow Dialogue, and development of the Santiago Network, to scale up progress and support. And faster and collaborative sectoral transitions, as agreed at Glasgow, now need to be firmly embedded internationally to deliver the sectoral transitions that will keep 1.5 in sight.
At COP26 we pressed for a huge movement of companies, cities, regions and civil society to also lead the race to zero. We tried to put climate justice, land rights, young people and indigenous peoples at the center of the debate. It is crucial this remains at the heart of our activities as partnership, collaboration and cooperation at all levels is essential to accelerate climate action.
So can the spirit of cooperation stay alive at COP27? That is up to us. There is no choice. I take hope from the fact that despite differences, the world has come together in Paris, and in Glasgow, and all countries have committed to act in their self- and collective interest. I also draw solace from the economics: the wealth and health of a clean sustainable world is infinitely greater than our current trajectory, and investors and business leaders have begun to realise that. Most of all, I take hope from communities and citizens everywhere demanding a just and liveable planet for current and future generations.
Nick Bridge has been the UK’s special climate envoy since May 2017. The economist was previously the UK’s Permanent Representative to the OECD and served in diplomatic positions in China, Japan, and the United States. In 2022, he was named a Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George (CMG).
Xie Zhenhua had actually already retired from politics. But then the climate expert’s career really took off once again. Xie played a key role in defining the long-term climate targets of the largest carbon emitter. Thanks to his decades of experience, it’s hard to imagine Chinese climate policy without him. Now he will play a key role at the COP27 world climate conference in Egypt.
Xie has been China’s chief negotiator at international climate conferences since 2007. He initially appeared as a hardliner. He takes the position, sometimes loudly, that China, as a “developing country,” does not bear the same responsibility for overcoming the climate crisis as the Western industrialized countries. China’s tough position contributed to the failure of the Copenhagen COP. Over the years, Xie has become more diplomatic, and climate protection took on greater importance for China as well. In 2014, Xie and then US Secretary of State John Kerry agreed on an emissions reduction memorandum of understanding. It is considered an important step for the Paris climate agreement. Xie and Kerry are said to maintain close contact and a certain sympathy for each other. “I know him very well because I’ve worked with him for … 20 years or so,” Kerry told Reuters. “He’s been a long time … leader and a believer.”
His ability to listen and negotiate tenaciously has enabled him to persuade other developing and emerging countries to compromise in difficult negotiating situations, said former US negotiator Todd Stern. Stern and Xie also grew closer in person, having visited each other’s hometowns of Tianjin and Chicago. “He’s colorful and interesting, has a sense of humor and loves to laugh. I kind of liked him right away,” Stern said.
Li Shuo of Greenpeace East Asia is also full of praise. “Talking to Xie feels like communicating with a real human being,” he said in the run-up to the Glasgow 2021 climate summit. “Whereas speaking to other Chinese officials feels more like talking to robots.”
Although Xie now also publicly acknowledges the dangers of climate change, he continues to represent China’s interests. And that means: The economy must not be slowed down too much by climate change. Therefore, the People’s Republic’s medium- to long-term climate targets, which refer to the years 2030 and 2060, do not match the agreement at the conference in Paris.
At the end of 2019, Xie stepped down as special envoy for climate change and chief negotiator at the age of 70. But his retirement did not last long. In the summer of 2020, he became an advisor on climate issues at the invitation of the Ministry of the Environment. In this new position, he regained political influence and made a major contribution to the formulation of China’s long-term climate goals, which Xi Jinping announced at the UN General Assembly in 2020. He particularly drew on his connections with Tsinghua University in Beijing. In 2017, he received the Lui Che Woo Award for his contribution to combating climate change. He donated the prize money, equivalent to $2.5 million, to Tsinghua, which it used to establish the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD). Xie became the director of the institute. Since 2018, the ICCSD has been researching decarbonization pathways for the industry, transportation, construction and energy sectors.
After Xie presented the research results to Environment Ministry officials, they made their way to China’s top ruling bodies: the State Council and Politburo. Without the sound scientific evidence provided by the institute, the government would not have made such a far-reaching decision as it did on climate targets, analysts say.
In the West, Xie is also considered a respected expert. His work has been honored with several awards, including:
Energy, environmental and climate issues have accompanied Xie throughout his career. After graduating from Tsinghua University with a diploma in nuclear engineering, he joined the then-newly formed Ministry of Urban and Rural Development and Environmental Protection as a civil servant responsible for controlling pollution in rivers and oceans. But his career path was not always mapped out. During the Cultural Revolution, like millions of other young people, he was sent to the countryside to be “re-educated” through hard labor. This experience links him to Xi Jinping, who walked a similar path when he was a teenager.
Xie then again assumed the role of Special Representative for Climate Change Affairs of China in February 2021. At the time, Li Shuo said “this is clearly a tailored move towards the US, an effort to ensure the diplomatic channels are there.” After all, Xie and Kerry continue to get along well. Before China ended US-China bilateral climate talks after the Taiwan dispute, they reportedly spoke frequently on the phone. At the time, it was considered a positive sign that Xie Zhenhua, who is experienced and respected internationally, would again become the chief negotiator and special envoy on climate change. However, if the major political climate continues to deteriorate, even the experienced Xie will play a smaller role. Nico Beckert
Here we go! For the next two weeks, the world will be looking to Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt. At the COP27 climate summit, delegates from nearly 200 countries will make the next attempt to get the climate crisis under control. Unfortunately, the chances of this happening are not looking too good.
This was shown by a flood of extensive scientific reports in recent days: The world is by no means, as will again be demanded in Egypt, on track to “act now.” True, the heads of state and government will deliver pretty speeches during the high-level segment to create a positive mood at the start of the COP. But emissions are rising, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods, wildfires and heat waves are on the rise. Countries in the Global North and South are more at odds with each other than they have been in a long time. The Russian assault on Ukraine complicates everything further.
Will there be progress in Sharm el Sheikh anyway? Will countries find a way to finance losses from climate change? Will countries reaffirm or water down their fossil phase-out? How much collective action is still possible?
These are the questions that will accompany us over the next two weeks. Our team will follow the negotiations on the ground and keep you up to date. We are looking forward to exciting days.
The COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh started with a first victory for the developing countries: Dealing with loss and damage resulting from climate change in the global South will become a so-called “Agenda Item” and is thus officially on the agenda of the climate conference. The issue of loss and damage has so far divided rich and poor countries. According to Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, the breakthrough was reached after 48 hours of tough negotiations. A final decision on loss and damage will be sought “no later than 2024,” said Shoukry, who was elected COP president on Sunday.
Back in 1991, small island nations were already calling for a kind of insurance system against the climate crisis. Since then, the issue has come up again and again, but it has never been taken seriously. Last year, however, the Glasgow Dialogue provided a platform for discussion on loss and damage. According to Shoukry, the agenda breakthrough on loss and damage was achieved through a compromise: the discussion will be based on “cooperation” rather than “liability or compensation.”
Specifically, developing countries call for a financing instrument for damage and losses, for example in the event of droughts, floods, but also economic damage. The idea is that the industrialized countries, as the main perpetrators of climate change, should also bear financial responsibility for the consequences of years of carbon emissions. The USA and also some EU countries have so far shied away from such a step. They fear that they will be held liable for natural disasters and that the demands for compensation will increase dramatically.
Before committing to a financial framework, the EU first wants to clarify with the countries of the Global South how great the need is. The EU mandate for the COP only includes talks. A high-ranking EU official said on Friday that the Global South’s willingness to engage in such talks was surprisingly low. He said the EU is willing to provide funding for loss and damage. However, this would have to be based on demand, otherwise complicated and years-long negotiations on compensation criteria would ensue, he said.
One option could be to agree on a capped funding framework that compensates for losses and damages. That would be a major success. At the same time, failure on this issue could also mean failure of the entire conference.
State Secretary at the German Federal Foreign Office, Jennifer Morgan, is responsible for negotiating a loss-and-damage roadmap with Chilean Environment Minister Maisa Rojas.
At COP27, previously adopted agreements are once again up for debate. In Glasgow, the countries agreed to use less fossil fuels and to end government subsidies for fossil infrastructure.
But because more and more coal-fired power plants are once again added to the grid, especially in the EU, or their operating lives are being extended, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are being sought, for example from Azerbaijan, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates, there are doubts that these agreements will be upheld. The climate policy credibility of Europe and the West is at stake. In addition, China approved new coal mines, and Vietnam and Indonesia are also trying to expand their coal production.
For this reason, some African states in particular are demanding to be allowed to develop their fossil energy sources. This position could complicate the talks in Sharm El-Sheikh.
In 2009, industrialized countries pledged to provide $100 billion each year from 2020 for investments in carbon abatement and climate adaptation measures in less wealthy countries. In 2020, the target was missed by a wide margin at $83.3 billion. According to an OECD forecast, the figures for 2022 are a maximum of $88 billion.
The sum of 100 billion is expected to be reached in 2023, however. But for that to happen, the United States in particular will have to ramp up its funding pledges. Joe Biden’s Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience (PREPARE) earmarks $3 billion a year for climate adaptation and a total of $11 billion for climate financing – but only starting in 2024. The EU also needs to step up. According to its own figures, the EU states provided just over €23 billion for public climate financing in 2021, excluding private capital.
The Egyptian COP presidency will pressure the industrialized countries to fulfill the promise by next year at the latest. As the African host country, Egypt’s demands also represent the Global South as a whole.
However, not only the amount alone is important, but also how much money comes from grants and how much from loans. Countries such as Japan and France do exceed their share of climate financing, but a large part consists of loans. The Global South, however, demands grants, especially for adaptation measures. In Glasgow, countries agreed that at least 50 percent of climate finance should go to adaptation measures.
According to calculations by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), international aid payments to date to the Global South for climate adaptation are between five and ten times lower than what the countries actually need. The UN Office for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that developing countries will require $300 billion in adaptation funding by 2030. During negotiations, the industrialized countries will once again be accused of not doing enough.
By 2025, the share of climate financing that flows into adaptation measures will be doubled. From the current level of around $20 billion (about a quarter of the total amount) to $40 billion – that was decided in Glasgow. If the $100 billion pledge is viewed together with the plan to allocate 50 percent to adaptation, then another $10 billion would have to flow. The less developed countries will also insist on this.
COP27 also marks the start of talks on a new financing target beyond 2025, which is supposed to be based on the needs of developing countries. However, an agreement is considered unlikely and is not planned until the Global Stocktake at COP28 on – the progress review of the Paris Agreement.
Despite the enormous need for adaptation measures, the EU in particular has repeatedly warned that avoiding climate-damaging carbon emissions must not be overlooked in the process. The European negotiators will also reiterate this point in Sharm el-Sheikh.
All countries were urged to raise their 2030 climate targets in the run-up to the COP. Of the industrialized countries, only Australia submitted an update to the UN before the summit began. Although the EU is also prepared to increase its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), it will wait until the negotiations of the Fit-for-55 package have been completed.
Instead, so-called Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are to be promoted at the behest of the G7 and the EU. A first JETP with South Africa (Climate.Table reported) worth $8.5 billion was agreed upon in Glasgow. Others are planned with Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Senegal – among others, to end the use of coal in these countries.
Furthermore, additional energy and hydrogen partnerships are planned. The EU and Egypt want to seal their joint project at the COP. Ursula von der Leyen will sign memoranda of understanding with Namibia and Kazakhstan during the high level segment of the summit.
For the COP host country Egypt, the climate crisis and climate conferences are highly relevant for many reasons:
With a population of 102 million people spread over a very small area, Egypt is vulnerable to disruptions to the natural balance: 95 percent of its population lives in the Nile Valley. Climate change increasingly leads to water shortages. Furthermore, the Nile Delta is threatened by rising sea levels and salinization: Coastal cities such as Alexandria would be particularly affected by the predicted increases of up to one meter by 2100. 30 percent of agricultural production in the fertile Nile Delta is considered to be at risk.
On greenhouse gas emissions, Egypt’s GDP of around $440 billion is on par with France at around 250 million tons. Per capita emissions, however, are significantly lower at 3.5 tons (France: 5.4 tons, Germany 8.6 tons). The current climate plan (NDC) envisages that the country will still increase its emissions by 2030. Egypt does not have a net-zero target for 2050.
Germanwatch’s Climate Change Performance Index rates Egypt’s climate policy as “medium”. The country thus ranks 22nd out of 61 states – behind Luxembourg, ahead of France. The index praises the country’s low emissions and low energy consumption. However, it also sees deficits in climate policy and the expansion of renewables.
The country’s energy policy is based on natural gas. For a long time, energy was scarce – but that changed in 2015 with the discovery of large gas deposits off the coast in the Mediterranean. Since then, Egypt has become an important producer and supplier – also for Europe. The reserves in the Mediterranean Sea and facilities for processing and shipping the LNG gas from Lebanon and Israel, for example, make it an important hub in the gas poker of the North Africa/Middle East region. A Russian nuclear power plant is planned but not yet under construction. Egypt does not have coal-fired power plants for electricity.
As for electricity from renewable sources, much rests on hydropower on the Nile (seven percent of electricity), only two percent on wind and one percent on solar power. The potential is enormous, but is hardly tapped: According to figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), about 60 percent of the country’s land offers excellent conditions for wind and solar power.
The plans of the government envisage a total power generation from renewables of 20 percent by 2022. In 2019, only 10 percent were reached. Officially, the percentage of electricity generated from renewables is to rise to 42 percent by 2035. However, IRENA sees the potential to increase this share to 53 percent.
Egypt’s climate plans include:
To meet the targets, the government estimates a total of $246 billion in foreign aid by 2030.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Egypt’s climate policy as “highly insufficient”. Egypt allows itself an increase in emissions of 50 percent by 2030. According to the Climate Action Tracker, this target is so weak that it would be achieved even with current measures, which amount to a 15 to 40 percent increase in emissions. If the country wants to do its part to meet the Paris climate goals, emissions should at least be frozen at current levels by 2030, according to CAT.
The evaluation also warns that Egypt is making itself dependent on this type of fossil fuel with one-third of Africa’s total gas consumption. As a result, the government risks “locking itself in to a high-carbon pathway” and shows “no leadership” in the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels.
But Egypt is now expected to prove this “leadership” at COP. The COP presidency is an opportunity for the country to show itself “on the world stage as a leading voice for the Global South,” writes Mohammed Soliman, a strategy consultant at Carnegie Endowment. “Egypt looks to the summit as an opportunity to burnish its international prestige, emphasize its Afro-Arab identity, and position Cairo as a bridge-builder between the Global South and North.”
Under the UK’s Presidency of COP26 last year, the whole world came together to sign the Glasgow Climate Pact. The Pact recommitted all nations to averting climate catastrophe, and made ambitious new commitments that if implemented, could keep a temperature limit of 1.5 degrees within reach; protect our forests and oceans; and help the poorest and most vulnerable countries survive the impacts of climate change that we cannot now avoid.
Since then we have been reminded of the urgency and scale of the threat. The scale of the floods in Pakistan was unprecedented. The Horn of Africa has suffered five failed harvests leaving 50 million facing acute food shortage. Hundreds of extreme weather records were broken across all continents.
It is sobering to recall that it takes 10-20 years for the earth’s system to fully absorb new Greenhouse Gas emissions. Today’s climate and weather reflect the emissions of long ago, and since then billions of tonnes of emissions have been added to the atmosphere. The extreme temperatures, floods, droughts, ice melt, fire and ecosystem failures that are rapidly worsening across the world are just a fraction of what is to come.
In addition, we face another 30 years before we stop adding to the stock of Greenhouse Gases. There is a possibility that even at current emissions, we may have already fundamentally destabilized most of the Earth’s key climate systems, with untold and irreversible consequences for humankind.
Every tonne of emissions, every decimal place of warming, makes a difference. There is no time to waste.
In this context, we witness Russia’s appalling invasion of Ukraine, which has divided and distracted us from a focus on the clean, green transition on which future generations depend. This is desperately serious. We cannot afford any delay. Emissions reductions are needed every day, week and month in order to roughly halve the global flow by 2030, and net them off completely by mid-century so that the stock begins to decline. Instead, Russia flares millions of dollars of gas daily.
We can and must ensure the Russian invasion accelerates the switch away from fossil fuel dependence to clean energy. The invasion has unequivocally highlighted our unsustainable dependency on expensive, volatile, polluting fossil fuels – and the terrible reality that our consumption is funding Putin’s bombs.
Ceasing to use Russian oil and gas makes sense on every level:
We have extraordinary job-rich opportunities in areas such as hydrogen power, battery storage and smart disintermediated grids, in net zero transport, industry and infrastructure that support wealth creation everywhere.
There is a short-term reality of needing fossil fuels from alternative sources, to ensure immediate energy security. But overall, fossil fuel use in Germany and the UK is still falling and it is being done within our respective net zero frameworks.
So whatever the wider geopolitical tensions, we simply must sustain and build more momentum at COP27 in Egypt. Our key focus must be on supporting those in most need. The targets have been set. But the support and finance is not yet getting where it is needed in sufficient scale or pace.
For this reason, COP27 has been dubbed the ‘action COP‘ or the ‘implementation COP‘. Throughout 2022, the UK has worked closely with Egypt and the UNFCCC Secretariat, as well as with like-minded partners such as Germany to support implementation. We are grateful for Germany’s leadership in developing the delivery plan for the $100bn of climate finance promised to vulnerable nations, as well as the climate leadership shown under its G7 Presidency.
By the end of COP27 we must be able to demonstrate that the promises made in Glasgow are being delivered. All major emitters must do more. Every country needs to drive home its national plan, consistent with a 1.5 temperature limit. We must ramp up climate finance – public and private – to support the poorest and most vulnerable countries, living up to our promises and going further, including using new, country-led Just Energy Transition Partnerships to put fairness at the heart of the transition.
We are seeing progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation, and on loss and damage, and we must use the new Glasgow Dialogue, and development of the Santiago Network, to scale up progress and support. And faster and collaborative sectoral transitions, as agreed at Glasgow, now need to be firmly embedded internationally to deliver the sectoral transitions that will keep 1.5 in sight.
At COP26 we pressed for a huge movement of companies, cities, regions and civil society to also lead the race to zero. We tried to put climate justice, land rights, young people and indigenous peoples at the center of the debate. It is crucial this remains at the heart of our activities as partnership, collaboration and cooperation at all levels is essential to accelerate climate action.
So can the spirit of cooperation stay alive at COP27? That is up to us. There is no choice. I take hope from the fact that despite differences, the world has come together in Paris, and in Glasgow, and all countries have committed to act in their self- and collective interest. I also draw solace from the economics: the wealth and health of a clean sustainable world is infinitely greater than our current trajectory, and investors and business leaders have begun to realise that. Most of all, I take hope from communities and citizens everywhere demanding a just and liveable planet for current and future generations.
Nick Bridge has been the UK’s special climate envoy since May 2017. The economist was previously the UK’s Permanent Representative to the OECD and served in diplomatic positions in China, Japan, and the United States. In 2022, he was named a Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George (CMG).
Xie Zhenhua had actually already retired from politics. But then the climate expert’s career really took off once again. Xie played a key role in defining the long-term climate targets of the largest carbon emitter. Thanks to his decades of experience, it’s hard to imagine Chinese climate policy without him. Now he will play a key role at the COP27 world climate conference in Egypt.
Xie has been China’s chief negotiator at international climate conferences since 2007. He initially appeared as a hardliner. He takes the position, sometimes loudly, that China, as a “developing country,” does not bear the same responsibility for overcoming the climate crisis as the Western industrialized countries. China’s tough position contributed to the failure of the Copenhagen COP. Over the years, Xie has become more diplomatic, and climate protection took on greater importance for China as well. In 2014, Xie and then US Secretary of State John Kerry agreed on an emissions reduction memorandum of understanding. It is considered an important step for the Paris climate agreement. Xie and Kerry are said to maintain close contact and a certain sympathy for each other. “I know him very well because I’ve worked with him for … 20 years or so,” Kerry told Reuters. “He’s been a long time … leader and a believer.”
His ability to listen and negotiate tenaciously has enabled him to persuade other developing and emerging countries to compromise in difficult negotiating situations, said former US negotiator Todd Stern. Stern and Xie also grew closer in person, having visited each other’s hometowns of Tianjin and Chicago. “He’s colorful and interesting, has a sense of humor and loves to laugh. I kind of liked him right away,” Stern said.
Li Shuo of Greenpeace East Asia is also full of praise. “Talking to Xie feels like communicating with a real human being,” he said in the run-up to the Glasgow 2021 climate summit. “Whereas speaking to other Chinese officials feels more like talking to robots.”
Although Xie now also publicly acknowledges the dangers of climate change, he continues to represent China’s interests. And that means: The economy must not be slowed down too much by climate change. Therefore, the People’s Republic’s medium- to long-term climate targets, which refer to the years 2030 and 2060, do not match the agreement at the conference in Paris.
At the end of 2019, Xie stepped down as special envoy for climate change and chief negotiator at the age of 70. But his retirement did not last long. In the summer of 2020, he became an advisor on climate issues at the invitation of the Ministry of the Environment. In this new position, he regained political influence and made a major contribution to the formulation of China’s long-term climate goals, which Xi Jinping announced at the UN General Assembly in 2020. He particularly drew on his connections with Tsinghua University in Beijing. In 2017, he received the Lui Che Woo Award for his contribution to combating climate change. He donated the prize money, equivalent to $2.5 million, to Tsinghua, which it used to establish the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD). Xie became the director of the institute. Since 2018, the ICCSD has been researching decarbonization pathways for the industry, transportation, construction and energy sectors.
After Xie presented the research results to Environment Ministry officials, they made their way to China’s top ruling bodies: the State Council and Politburo. Without the sound scientific evidence provided by the institute, the government would not have made such a far-reaching decision as it did on climate targets, analysts say.
In the West, Xie is also considered a respected expert. His work has been honored with several awards, including:
Energy, environmental and climate issues have accompanied Xie throughout his career. After graduating from Tsinghua University with a diploma in nuclear engineering, he joined the then-newly formed Ministry of Urban and Rural Development and Environmental Protection as a civil servant responsible for controlling pollution in rivers and oceans. But his career path was not always mapped out. During the Cultural Revolution, like millions of other young people, he was sent to the countryside to be “re-educated” through hard labor. This experience links him to Xi Jinping, who walked a similar path when he was a teenager.
Xie then again assumed the role of Special Representative for Climate Change Affairs of China in February 2021. At the time, Li Shuo said “this is clearly a tailored move towards the US, an effort to ensure the diplomatic channels are there.” After all, Xie and Kerry continue to get along well. Before China ended US-China bilateral climate talks after the Taiwan dispute, they reportedly spoke frequently on the phone. At the time, it was considered a positive sign that Xie Zhenhua, who is experienced and respected internationally, would again become the chief negotiator and special envoy on climate change. However, if the major political climate continues to deteriorate, even the experienced Xie will play a smaller role. Nico Beckert
