2030, 2050 and sometimes 2100 – in the climate crisis debate, numbers sometimes falsely signal that the climate crisis is still far off in the future. Other issues seem increasingly topical and relevant. When Russian bombs explode in Europe, the climate crisis – understandably – barely makes it to the front pages.
The logical step from gas dependency to climate change is not far off. But instead of looking for a green way out towards more renewables, governments around the globe invest in gas extraction and infrastructure. As Bernhard Poetter shows, this puts the net-zero target for 2050 at massive risk.
But the climate facts paint a clear picture. Yesterday at the COP, “10 New Insights in Climate Science” were presented: Health hazards are increasing, climate change is becoming a national security issue, and it is driving many millions of people from their homes. A recent Nature study adds: The Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than previously believed.
Despite all these dangers, governments move far too slowly. They should switch to crisis mode instead of taking small steps. We look eagerly to next week, when the political decisions at COP will be made.
The planned massive global expansion of the gas industry threatens the 1.5-degree limit set out in the Paris Agreement, a new study finds. If all plants currently planned and under construction are realized, they could emit a total of 1.9 billion metric tons more carbon dioxide in 2030 than would be tolerable for the path to net-zero in 2050. This is the conclusion of the annual Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
According to these calculations, the surging demand for fossil natural gas alone would consume a total of around 10 percent of the remaining carbon budget between now and 2050. According to CAT, current plans will result in liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity that could supply a total of 680 billion cubic meters of gas per year as early as 2030 – five times as much as Russia has supplied to Europe. This “oversupply” is an “over reach that must be scaled back,” says the report produced by think tanks Climate Analytics and the New Climate Institute.
Due to Russia’s war on Ukraine, sanctions and interruptions in Russian gas supplies, many European countries in particular – above all Germany – are currently desperately seeking new gas supplies, for example from Canada, the Middle East or Africa. Germany also plans the construction of new LNG terminals.
This “gold rush for gas” conflicts with the Paris Agreement, CAT warns. As the real culprits of the climate crisis, fossil fuels are “knocking climate action down the policy agenda, despite the fact that renewables, efficiency and electrification are by far the cheapest, fastest and most secure options,” the report says.
Niklas Höhne of the New Climate Institute emphasized, “Gas is not a bridging technology.” On the contrary, it often stands in the way of sustainable supply because it delays the rapid expansion of renewables.
The promise made at COP26 in Glasgow to take climate action seriously has also not been fulfilled so far, according to CAT. The process of presenting new and improved climate plans (NDCs) “has failed to deliver the urgent emissions cuts governments promised to deliver to keep warming to 1.5 °C,” the report criticizes. For that reason – the numbers are the same as they were a year ago in Glasgow – global warming is currently on track to reach 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. That is, if countries actually meet their climate targets for 2030 and then continue along that path.
But if only the current measures are continued, the planet will heat up by as much as 2.7 degrees by 2100, according to CAT’s projections. Even if all net-zero targets and promises were implemented, the temperature would still rise to 2 degrees. And only a very optimistic scenario predicts 1.8 degrees – and would thus be Paris-compatible.
However, the authors concede that quite some progress has been made in climate policy in 2022:
Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Norway and Thailand have also presented more ambitious climate plans – while the new plans of India, Indonesia, Egypt and the United Kingdom, for example, are no better than before.
However, there is still “only thinking and acting in small steps,” said Niklas Höhne. “Unlike the Covid pandemic and the response to the Ukraine war, we are not switching to crisis mode.” But that was urgently needed, considering that previous trends showed that emissions in 2030 will be twice as high as the 1.5-degree limit could handle. “We have to get out of the comfort zone,” Höhne said.
In other areas, too, CAT has not much positive to say about current policies:
This is also the conclusion of the first revised GOGEL list, which environmental groups presented at COP on Thursday. The “Global Gas and Oil Exit List” provides an overview of almost all fossil plans worldwide and how they (do not) fit into the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero scenario.
According to the current list:
This publicly accessible database is aimed primarily at the financial sector. Potential investors should know where to identify the largest expansion plans and the “most controversial forms of oil and gas production.” This may also threaten to damage the reputation of investors. After all, among them are “projects that exacerbate violent conflicts, cause immense social or environmental damage, or are challenged by lawsuits and resistance from communities.”
Sônia Guajajara is a short woman, barely over 1.50 meters. Yet she is not easily overlooked: She speaks with vigor and purpose, often wearing a traditional crown of feathers and colorful clothing. This makes her stand out from the crowd of Brazilian politicians. And also at COP27, where she represents indigenous interests before an international audience as an official member of the Brazilian delegation.
In the Brazilian election, Guajajara was elected as a deputy to the National Congress for the PSOL (Partido Socialismo e Liberdade, a left-wing party). “This is a great success for the indigenous movement,” she says. “I am very happy that our voice is now heard in this place of power.” And probably all over the world: In 2022, Time magazine named her one of the 100 most influential people in the world.
In Brazil, indigenous deputies led by Guajajara want to push for more environmental protection after the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On October 30, the left-wing social democrat won the runoff election for the presidency against Jair Bolsonaro – who, in turn, undermined democratic structures and left a fatal environmental track record.
Sônia Guajajara’s real name is Sônia Bone de Souza Silva Santos – indigenous activists in Brazil often use their first name and the name of their people. She is 48 years old, comes from the state of Maranhão in the northeast of Brazil and has now been elected to parliament for São Paulo.
In Congress, Guajajara wants to fight for indigenous rights. “Protecting indigenous peoples and indigenous rights is one of the best approaches to address the climate crisis,” she says. “We urgently need to protect the environment more consistently and break with this exploitative economic model.” Her priority is to consistently designate indigenous protected areas: In the last 40 years, just 2.4 percent of indigenous land has been cleared, compared to about 20 percent in the rest of the Amazon rainforest.
In the first round of elections on October 2, five indigenous people moved into the Brazilian National Congress – more than ever before. Joênia Wapichana was the first indigenous woman elected to Congress in 2018. She lost her seat again in this election.
Still, indigenous people are now more represented in politics. “I am glad that we can finally break through this racism of absence,” says Guajajara. Even in the run-up to the elections, it was apparent that more and more indigenous Brazilians were seeking a place in politics. While a total of 134 indigenous candidates were registered in 2018, it was already 175 this year.
Although there is also an indigenous deputy who supports Bolsonaro and advocates industrial agriculture and mining in indigenous areas, Guajara expressed audible relief that Lula won. She says, “Bolsonaro was a tragedy for us.” Lisa Kuner
2030, 2050 and sometimes 2100 – in the climate crisis debate, numbers sometimes falsely signal that the climate crisis is still far off in the future. Other issues seem increasingly topical and relevant. When Russian bombs explode in Europe, the climate crisis – understandably – barely makes it to the front pages.
The logical step from gas dependency to climate change is not far off. But instead of looking for a green way out towards more renewables, governments around the globe invest in gas extraction and infrastructure. As Bernhard Poetter shows, this puts the net-zero target for 2050 at massive risk.
But the climate facts paint a clear picture. Yesterday at the COP, “10 New Insights in Climate Science” were presented: Health hazards are increasing, climate change is becoming a national security issue, and it is driving many millions of people from their homes. A recent Nature study adds: The Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than previously believed.
Despite all these dangers, governments move far too slowly. They should switch to crisis mode instead of taking small steps. We look eagerly to next week, when the political decisions at COP will be made.
The planned massive global expansion of the gas industry threatens the 1.5-degree limit set out in the Paris Agreement, a new study finds. If all plants currently planned and under construction are realized, they could emit a total of 1.9 billion metric tons more carbon dioxide in 2030 than would be tolerable for the path to net-zero in 2050. This is the conclusion of the annual Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
According to these calculations, the surging demand for fossil natural gas alone would consume a total of around 10 percent of the remaining carbon budget between now and 2050. According to CAT, current plans will result in liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity that could supply a total of 680 billion cubic meters of gas per year as early as 2030 – five times as much as Russia has supplied to Europe. This “oversupply” is an “over reach that must be scaled back,” says the report produced by think tanks Climate Analytics and the New Climate Institute.
Due to Russia’s war on Ukraine, sanctions and interruptions in Russian gas supplies, many European countries in particular – above all Germany – are currently desperately seeking new gas supplies, for example from Canada, the Middle East or Africa. Germany also plans the construction of new LNG terminals.
This “gold rush for gas” conflicts with the Paris Agreement, CAT warns. As the real culprits of the climate crisis, fossil fuels are “knocking climate action down the policy agenda, despite the fact that renewables, efficiency and electrification are by far the cheapest, fastest and most secure options,” the report says.
Niklas Höhne of the New Climate Institute emphasized, “Gas is not a bridging technology.” On the contrary, it often stands in the way of sustainable supply because it delays the rapid expansion of renewables.
The promise made at COP26 in Glasgow to take climate action seriously has also not been fulfilled so far, according to CAT. The process of presenting new and improved climate plans (NDCs) “has failed to deliver the urgent emissions cuts governments promised to deliver to keep warming to 1.5 °C,” the report criticizes. For that reason – the numbers are the same as they were a year ago in Glasgow – global warming is currently on track to reach 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. That is, if countries actually meet their climate targets for 2030 and then continue along that path.
But if only the current measures are continued, the planet will heat up by as much as 2.7 degrees by 2100, according to CAT’s projections. Even if all net-zero targets and promises were implemented, the temperature would still rise to 2 degrees. And only a very optimistic scenario predicts 1.8 degrees – and would thus be Paris-compatible.
However, the authors concede that quite some progress has been made in climate policy in 2022:
Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Norway and Thailand have also presented more ambitious climate plans – while the new plans of India, Indonesia, Egypt and the United Kingdom, for example, are no better than before.
However, there is still “only thinking and acting in small steps,” said Niklas Höhne. “Unlike the Covid pandemic and the response to the Ukraine war, we are not switching to crisis mode.” But that was urgently needed, considering that previous trends showed that emissions in 2030 will be twice as high as the 1.5-degree limit could handle. “We have to get out of the comfort zone,” Höhne said.
In other areas, too, CAT has not much positive to say about current policies:
This is also the conclusion of the first revised GOGEL list, which environmental groups presented at COP on Thursday. The “Global Gas and Oil Exit List” provides an overview of almost all fossil plans worldwide and how they (do not) fit into the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero scenario.
According to the current list:
This publicly accessible database is aimed primarily at the financial sector. Potential investors should know where to identify the largest expansion plans and the “most controversial forms of oil and gas production.” This may also threaten to damage the reputation of investors. After all, among them are “projects that exacerbate violent conflicts, cause immense social or environmental damage, or are challenged by lawsuits and resistance from communities.”
Sônia Guajajara is a short woman, barely over 1.50 meters. Yet she is not easily overlooked: She speaks with vigor and purpose, often wearing a traditional crown of feathers and colorful clothing. This makes her stand out from the crowd of Brazilian politicians. And also at COP27, where she represents indigenous interests before an international audience as an official member of the Brazilian delegation.
In the Brazilian election, Guajajara was elected as a deputy to the National Congress for the PSOL (Partido Socialismo e Liberdade, a left-wing party). “This is a great success for the indigenous movement,” she says. “I am very happy that our voice is now heard in this place of power.” And probably all over the world: In 2022, Time magazine named her one of the 100 most influential people in the world.
In Brazil, indigenous deputies led by Guajajara want to push for more environmental protection after the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On October 30, the left-wing social democrat won the runoff election for the presidency against Jair Bolsonaro – who, in turn, undermined democratic structures and left a fatal environmental track record.
Sônia Guajajara’s real name is Sônia Bone de Souza Silva Santos – indigenous activists in Brazil often use their first name and the name of their people. She is 48 years old, comes from the state of Maranhão in the northeast of Brazil and has now been elected to parliament for São Paulo.
In Congress, Guajajara wants to fight for indigenous rights. “Protecting indigenous peoples and indigenous rights is one of the best approaches to address the climate crisis,” she says. “We urgently need to protect the environment more consistently and break with this exploitative economic model.” Her priority is to consistently designate indigenous protected areas: In the last 40 years, just 2.4 percent of indigenous land has been cleared, compared to about 20 percent in the rest of the Amazon rainforest.
In the first round of elections on October 2, five indigenous people moved into the Brazilian National Congress – more than ever before. Joênia Wapichana was the first indigenous woman elected to Congress in 2018. She lost her seat again in this election.
Still, indigenous people are now more represented in politics. “I am glad that we can finally break through this racism of absence,” says Guajajara. Even in the run-up to the elections, it was apparent that more and more indigenous Brazilians were seeking a place in politics. While a total of 134 indigenous candidates were registered in 2018, it was already 175 this year.
Although there is also an indigenous deputy who supports Bolsonaro and advocates industrial agriculture and mining in indigenous areas, Guajara expressed audible relief that Lula won. She says, “Bolsonaro was a tragedy for us.” Lisa Kuner
