China's hedge against geopolitical shocks

By Zhang Jun

Zhang Jun is the Director of the think tank China Center for Economic Studies in Shanghai.

The US is trying its hardest to contain China's economic and technological rise. But protectionist policies and trade and investment restrictions will not cause any lasting damage to the Chinese economy. This is because the technological strength of China's economy has already passed a critical threshold. It is only a matter of time before China catches up technologically with the US, writes Zhang Jun, Dean of Economics at Fudan University Shanghai.

In terms of geopolitical impact, nothing could be more important than the United States’ shift from strategic cooperation to strategic competition with China. This change has darkened many observers’ views of China’s economic prospects, as indicated by a Bruegel report released late last year. The assumption, it seems, is that China has no choice but to retreat from its successful development path and embark on a less prosperous path toward self-reliance, with the state exercising complete control over the economy to hedge against geopolitical shocks. But China’s efforts to bolster its self-sufficiency in some areas are a reasonable response to external pressures – and they hardly spell doom for its economic model or prospects.

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