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The third-highest ranking politician of the USA has landed in Taiwan. As expected, in response to Nancy Pelosi’s arrival, China dispatched its military forces: Aircraft of the Chinese Air Force scratched the center line of the strait between the island and the mainland. In addition, naval exercises with live ammunition will begin on Thursday in the waters around Taiwan. For an assessment of the Chinese response, check our analysis by Christiane Kuehl. Pelosi’s gamble seems to have paid off in the short term because an escalation has failed to materialize. Nonetheless, the United States will have a harder time dealing with China from now on.
China’s overly vocal propagandists now have to row back. But China still holds the stronger cards and will now “play them one by one,” wrote Hu Xijin, the ever vociferous former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, on Twitter. So instead of the “great war in the Taiwan Strait” he announced on Monday, the situation has turned into a card game. (Be sure to check our Dessert section, where Hu Xijin can be seen unusually close with Pelosi).
However, relations between the United States and China will now become even more complicated. Xi Jinping cannot simply overlook the historic visit. Moreover, the risk of a misunderstanding and an unintended escalation have not been averted, especially since both sides are massing warships in the same sea area. Taiwan remains one of the most critical hot spots, alongside the ongoing war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran.
Pelosi’s visit now strengthens symbolic support for Taiwan, but it comes at a precarious time. The world already looks distraught at one war. And China is at the point where it could push to show its newly regained technological-military strength in action. As commendable as Pelosi’s tenacity is, it has shaken a status quo that secured a delicate peace for decades.
At the same time, however, the reaction on Tuesday evening initially seemed like a game. The moment flight tracking sites signaled Pelosi’s landing, the Chinese and American sides posted their PR pieces online, boldly proclaiming their positions. It was almost reassuring that they used the same phrases as usual.
Finn Mayer-Kuckuk
Feature
Fighter jets and maneuvers at Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan
She actually did it: Despite all the warnings and crisis scenarios, Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan on Tuesday – with the whole world watching. Hundreds of thousands across the globe, and at times as many as 30 million people in China, followed on online flight trackers how the US Air Force Boeing with Pelosi on board departed from Kuala Lumpur and landed in Taiwan late in the evening, local time. The tracking app Flight Radar even temporarily collapsed under the huge traffic.
Almost at the exact moment the plane had set down, the Chinese reaction arrived. The People’s Liberation Army dispatched SU-35 fighter jets along the median line between Taiwan and Mainland China. It was one of the reactions that experts had anticipated. Chinese state television aired only a short report about the jet deployment. After the threatening gestures of the past few days (China.Table reported), this seemed downright reserved. As recently as Tuesday afternoon, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying had warned of “strong countermeasures”.
Even before Pelosi’s arrival, two naval maneuvers had been launched and were continuing on Tuesday evening – albeit far away from Taiwan in the Bohai Sea and in the South China Sea. The presidential office of Tsai Ing-wen also reported that hackers had temporarily shut down the president’s website due to an onslaught of requests.
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