Influence in the Indo-Pacific + ASEAN distances itself from the US + Threatened growth

Many Western media – including the public – enjoy the narrative of a united global alliance against a cornered Putin. But even if Japan, the traditional ally of the US in Asia, joins in, the anti-Russia alliance still does not span the globe as fully as the picture suggests. Not the entire South and Southeast of Asia are on board. Above all, the ten members of ASEAN are unwilling to side with the United States, writes Frank Sieren. They consider their economic relations with China far too important.

Indeed, the statements of Southeast Asian leaders on the Ukraine crisis have tended to echo Beijing’s rhetoric. This is also remarkable because many of these countries are locking horns with China over maritime territories. The navy of the People’s Republic seizes disputed South Sea islands faster than ever before, analyzes Christiane Kuehl. And yet, Beijing gains new allies in the Pacific. The Solomon Islands have now turned their backs on Taiwan and signed a security treaty with China. All this to the displeasure of US President Joe Biden, who finds far fewer allies for his policies in Asia than he had hoped.

The lockdown in Shanghai will continue to be an important topic for us. Especially since it is the harbinger of a long series of curfews. Omicron can only be contained with severe measures. Since the zero-covid policy has become a government doctrine, it cannot be relaxed – especially since China’s healthcare system would quickly become overwhelmed by an exponential growth of infections. Meanwhile, disruptions in production have begun to show. Surveys by the Chamber of Commerce and the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics unanimously report an anxious mood among companies. Omicron in Asia and the war in Europe are blending into a vicious storm for the economy.

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Finn Mayer-Kuckuk