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Dear reader,
How vulnerable is Taiwan? This is what we talked about with Eberhard Sandschneider. The former professor at the Free University of Berlin is one of the most renowned experts on security policy – and on the Chinese military. Sandschneider does not expect an invasion of the island in the near future: The risk of clashing with the United States is too high, he tells Michael Radunski. But in the years and decades to come, a war between the US and China is quite possible. Since the People’s Liberation Army is also growing stronger both internally and externally, a disaster might be at hand after all.
The lockdown in Shanghai has now lasted for far too long. Since it was originally intended to last only a few days, many city residents start to run out of food – and patience. This also affects foreigners living in the city. Many of them, despite all their approval for the pandemic response, are particularly frustrated that it is extremely difficult for them to leave the city. Instead, the fear of being sent to a quarantine center is growing, writes Christiane Kuehl. And these centers seem more like military hospitals. Omicron, meanwhile, lives up to its reputation and continues to find new infection victims even in the closed-down city.
Have a pleasant week!
Your
Finn Mayer-Kuckuk
Interview
‘The time for China’s military has come’
Eberhard Sandschneider is Partner at Berlin Global Advisors
Eberhard Sandschneider is one of Germany’s most distinguished China experts. Speaking with Michael Radunski, he discusses a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the goals of the People’s Liberation Army, and risks in the relationship between the United States and China.
Mr. Sandschneider, the war in Ukraine is not even over yet, and many experts already see the next conflict on the horizon: China will take advantage of the West’s distraction with Russia and finally bring Taiwan back to the motherland. Do you share this concern?
No, as tempting as this comparison and the parallels may be for some, the situation in Asia is completely different. Taiwan commands the best-equipped and best-trained army in the Western Pacific. China would end up with a very bloody nose. Then there is the Taiwan Relations Act, which binds the USA closely to Taiwan. There is a pledge of support. China’s President Xi Jinping is aware of this risk. In this respect, the current speculation about a possible attack by China on Taiwan is really unfounded. I cannot imagine this happening.
Cannot imagine? The same would probably have been said a few weeks ago about a possible Russian attack on Ukraine. The reality is different.
Geopolitics
Security
Taiwan
USA
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