The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) has presented initial estimates of how trade could shift as a result of sanctions on Russia. Russia will indeed expand its goods trade with China as a result of the conflict, the economists forecast in a recent working paper. But China will not emerge as a winner as a result: In fact, Chinese economic growth will be minimally negatively impacted, according to predictions. Overall, global supply chains will be disrupted, goods will become more expensive for all parties involved, and prosperity will be impaired.
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